02.28-The Morning Call: Do Calm Markets mean a Crash is Coming?

Typically our technical problems boil down to user error - for the first time MailChimp failed us yesterday.  For that we apologize.  This edition of The Morning Call includes yesterday's draft that unfortunately never made it out.  


What a great headline from the WSJ. Contrarian anyone? We just completed our 12th consecutive up day for the S&P. Long run. Small gain. It's up +3.9%. Importantly the S&P hasn't had a 1% down day for 93 days. Goldman has done the Research. Markets are up +4% in the next 3 months. +9% in 6 months. +15% the next year.

Yesterday we experienced a problem with Mailchimp.They erroneously categorized 9% of our email as bounce backs. They closed our account for Spamming. They were wrong. The Morning Call was particularly good. The Market's confirmation is from the CoCo's. we are resending it here:


FED governor Kaplan spoke yesterday. "Rates need to Rise'. The process should be done "Slowly and Patiently". Those words have the markets buzzing. The futures now predict that it's 50:50 whether the FED hikes in March Remember, "Beware the Ides of March".

The Saudis are reported to wanting $60 Oil.Sure. I know what I want.The Calendar Contango spread has gone from 6 cents to 30 cents. Traders expect to see the Surplus to move to Deficit. The market should go from Contango to Backwardation. Confidence is wavering. At the Peak the Net Longs were 160mm bbls. It's now 127 mm bbls. Energy stocks are making new lows. In a Bull market?

Another area of Distress is Retailing. Their stocks are back to levels not seen since the GFC. It's a combination of Online encroachment and BAT concerns.

France's Q4 GDP was +1.2%. Their CPI was also +1.2%. Growth and Inflation is just what markets need.

Invest the Money.

Regards,

 

3.1-The Morning Call: The Earnings Recession is Officially Over

02.28-The Morning Call: Do Calm Markets mean a Crash is Coming?

2-2 The Morning Call:Yellen does Nothing. How long is she for the Job?

7.18 - The Morning Call: What a Week that was.

Fed, BOJ in the spotlight but no fireworks expected


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