Spot uranium price closed below $64 per pound in March, and briefly fell to about 63.50, the lowest price in 18 months in the first quarter of 2025. The reasons behind the weakness include the U.S. appeared to be struggling to repair its relationship with Russia (a major producer of uranium), while U.S. AI development which consumes large amounts of energy seems being challenged by more efficient Chinese competitors, leading to a modest cooling of bets on future nuclear fuel demand.
Meanwhile, long-term contract prices stabilized at around $80 per pound at the end of March, according to Canadian uranium mining company Cameco.
Uranium-related investments have had a rough start to the year, despite the Trump administration’s pledge to ‘unleash commercial nuclear power’, according to one piece of report on Wall Street Journal on 19 March. Even though long-term fundamentals look solid, tariffs and unpredictable geopolitical moves are creating more uncertainty in the market.
Trading Economics notes that the Trump administration has ‘signalled’ that it aims to secure economic ties with Russia, partly fuelling bets that Washington could lift current sanctions on imports of Russian nuclear fuel. Russia is estimated to have nearly 50 per cent of the world’s uranium conversion and enrichment capacity.
Aside from that, AI data centers remain another factor contributing to market uncertainty, with the market reconsidering its speculative stance on the need for nuclear power in US data centres following the emergence of more efficient large-scale language models in Europe and China, Trading Economics reported.
Microsoft Corp. reportedly cancelled its data centre leases in the U.S. last month, in contrast to the tech giants’ race to secure new power capacity. Industry insiders say the move suggests that Microsoft’s existing data centre supply is already overstretched relative to current demand forecasts.
According to analysts at Trading Economics, the spot price of uranium will continue to fall slowly over the next few months, with uranium trading at $64.43 per pound over the next 12 months.
However, Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg explained in an interview with INN in February that the speculative fever in the uranium market has passed and prices have normalised and consolidated. After a longer period of consolidation, the uranium market is now gearing up for the next move higher.
Jacob White, ETF product manager at Sprott, echoed this view, highlighting the current ‘buy-low’ potential of the uranium market. In a recent research note, White noted that today’s price weakness provides a potentially attractive entry opportunity for investors who appreciate the strategic value of uranium and can withstand the recent turmoil.
