{"id":214271,"date":"2018-03-09T16:49:41","date_gmt":"2018-03-10T00:49:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=214271"},"modified":"2018-05-17T16:25:52","modified_gmt":"2018-05-17T23:25:52","slug":"%e6%88%bf%e4%ba%a7%e4%b8%8a%e8%a1%8c%e5%91%a8%e6%9c%9f%e5%b7%b2%e8%bf%87-%e5%8a%a0%e5%9b%bd%e5%8d%8e%e4%ba%ba%e4%b8%8b%e4%b8%80%e6%ad%a5%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e4%bd%95%e5%a4%84%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2018\/03\/%e6%88%bf%e4%ba%a7%e4%b8%8a%e8%a1%8c%e5%91%a8%e6%9c%9f%e5%b7%b2%e8%bf%87-%e5%8a%a0%e5%9b%bd%e5%8d%8e%e4%ba%ba%e4%b8%8b%e4%b8%80%e6%ad%a5%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e4%bd%95%e5%a4%84%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u623f\u4ea7\u4e0a\u884c\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u8fc7\u2014\u2014\u52a0\u56fd\u534e\u4eba\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u6295\u8d44\u4f55\u5904\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u4e09\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u623f\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u8fde\u7eed\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e0d\u5c11\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u623f\u4ea7\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u624b\u6bb5\u201d\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53ea\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u3001\u591a\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u5e76\u975e\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u54c1\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd127\u5e74\u6765\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\uff08\u542b\u80a1\u606f\uff09\u4e0e\u540d\u4e49\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff08\u56fe1\uff09\u6765\u770b\uff0c1890\u5e74\u76841\u7f8e\u5143\u623f\u4ea7\u5982\u4eca\u4ef7\u503c52\u5143\uff0c\u623f\u4ea7\u5e74\u540d\u4e49\u56de\u62a5\u7ea6\u4e3a3.17%\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u901a\u80c0\u540e\u7684\u767e\u5e74\u771f\u5b9e\u6da8\u5e45\u4ec566%\uff1b\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u6807\u666e127\u5e74\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f9.3%\uff0c\u5e74\u589e\u901f\u4e3a\u623f\u4ea7\u76843\u500d\u3002\u5f53\u5e741\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6807\u666e\uff0c\u5982\u4eca80723\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5347\u503c8\u4e07\u500d\uff0c\u662f\u623f\u4ea7\u76841548\u500d\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e00\u76f4\u5411\u957f\u671f\u80a1\u6743\u6301\u6709\u8005\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-214291 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4.jpeg\" alt=\"\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4\" width=\"490\" height=\"295\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4.jpeg 558w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4-302x182.jpeg 302w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4-300x181.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/\u56fe1\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb127\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6bd4-390x235.jpeg 390w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 490px) 100vw, 490px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 490px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 490\/295;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1aBusinesslike (Source: Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (2000), With Updates to 2017)<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>\u4e00\u5207\u7e41\u534e\uff0c\u90fd\u62b5\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5468\u671f<\/h4>\n<p>\u8fd1\u4e00\u8f6e\u623f\u4ea7\u5927\u6da8\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u957f\u8fbe\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u8d85\u5e38\u89c4\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u5165\u9891\u7e41\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5747\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u81ea2017\u5e74\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c2018\u5e74\u521d\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4ece\u6700\u521d\u76840.5%\u63d0\u5347\u81f31.25%\uff08\u56fe2\uff09\uff0c\u529b\u5ea6\u8d85\u5f3a\uff0c\u8d8b\u52bf\u660e\u663e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56fe2\uff1a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u57288\u4e2a\u6708\u51853\u6b21\u52a0\u606f<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/%E5%9B%BE2%EF%BC%9A%E5%8A%A0%E6%8B%BF%E5%A4%A7%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E5%9C%A88%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%88%E5%86%853%E6%AC%A1%E5%8A%A0%E6%81%AF.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-214275 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/cdn.nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/%E5%9B%BE2%EF%BC%9A%E5%8A%A0%E6%8B%BF%E5%A4%A7%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C%E5%9C%A88%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%88%E5%86%853%E6%AC%A1%E5%8A%A0%E6%81%AF-1024x969.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"451\" height=\"427\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 451px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 451\/427;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>2018\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6700\u4e3a\u706b\u70ed\u7684\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u6240\u5728BC\u7701\u51fa\u53f0\u91cd\u78c5\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u63a7\u697c\u5e02\uff1a\u6d77\u5916\u4e70\u5bb6\u7a0e\u4ece15%\u6da8\u523020%\uff0c300\u4e07\u52a0\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u623f\u4ea7\u8f6c\u8ba9\u7a0e\u4ece3%\u5347\u52305%\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u9488\u5bf9\u7a7a\u7f6e\u623f\u5c4b\uff0c\u7701\u653f\u5e9c\u8ba1\u5212\u5f15\u51652%\u7684\u6295\u673a\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u3001\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u7b49\u51e0\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u8fde\u53d7\u5230\u623f\u4ea7\u8fc7\u70ed\u7684\u8b66\u62a5\uff0c2017\u5e7410\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u745e\u58eb\u94f6\u884c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u623f\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u5927\u7684\u524d5\u540d\u57ce\u5e02\u540d\u5355\u4e0a\uff0c\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u548c\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u5747\u5217\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u66f4\u662f\u8d85\u8fc7\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u4f26\u6566\u548c\u963f\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4e39\u4f4d\u5c45\u9996\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u91cf\u7a7a\u7f6e\u4f4f\u623f\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u70ed\u548c\u6295\u673a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u653f\u5e9c\u5e76\u672a\u6b63\u5f0f\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7a7a\u7f6e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u63a8\u7b97\uff0c2001\u5e74\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4f4f\u623f\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u4e3a7.85%\uff0c2006\u5e74\u5347\u81f38.4%\u3002\u622a\u81f32016\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u4e3a8.69%\uff0c\u521b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u603b\u6570\u7ea6\u4e3a134\u4e07\u5957\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7a7a\u7f6e\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002\u867d\u7136\u589e\u957f\u6709\u6240\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5728\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79cd\u79cd\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u623f\u4ea7\u9ad8\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u6210\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u6301\u6709\u6210\u672c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u623f\u4ea7\u53ea\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6700\u4f73\u6295\u8d44\u6807\u7684\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u623f\u4ea7\u6bcf\u5e74\u9700\u8981\u7f34\u7eb3\u7269\u4e1a\u7a0e\u3001\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u3001\u536b\u751f\u8d39\u7b49\u5404\u79cd\u8d39\u7528\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u662f\u516c\u5bd3\u6216\u8005\u57ce\u5e02\u5c4b\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6708\u8fd8\u9700\u7f34\u7eb3\u4e0d\u5c0f\u7684\u7269\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u8d39\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u623f\u5c4b\u7684\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b14\u7ba1\u7406\u8d39\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9010\u5e74\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u8fde\u7eed\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\uff0c\u7ed9\u4eba\u5e26\u6765\u623f\u4ea7\u201c\u53ea\u8d5a\u4e0d\u8d54\u201d\u7684\u5047\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u7eb5\u89c2\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u6210\u719f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u7e41\u534e\u8fc7\u540e\u7684\u623f\u4ea7\u957f\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5e02\u573a\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u81f3\u4eca\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u6446\u8131\u56e0\u623f\u4ea7\u5d29\u76d8\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9634\u5f71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u623f\u4ea7\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5404\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6536\u7d27\uff0c\u623f\u4ea7\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u8fc7\uff0c\u623f\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u6216\u6301\u6709\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\u5c06\u4f1a\u51f8\u663e\u3002<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u80a1\u6307\u8d70\u52bf<\/h4>\n<p>\u4e0e\u5927\u5bb6\u949f\u7231\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u63d0\u5230<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/our-clients\/\">\u6295\u8d44\u80a1\u7968<\/a>\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u9996\u5148\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u90fd\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2018\/02\/%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80\/\">\u201c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u201d<\/a>\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u80a1\u6307\u5c3d\u7ba1\u77ed\u671f\u6709\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5747\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7ecf\u8fc72008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08\u56fe3\uff09\u3002<br \/>\n\u56fe3\uff1a\u9053\u743c\u65af\u6307\u6570\u8d70\u52bf<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/%E5%9B%BE3%EF%BC%9A%E9%81%93%E7%90%BC%E6%96%AF%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E8%B5%B0%E5%8A%BF.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-214278 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