{"id":361860,"date":"2020-12-15T16:47:51","date_gmt":"2020-12-16T00:47:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=361860"},"modified":"2020-12-15T16:47:51","modified_gmt":"2020-12-16T00:47:51","slug":"%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac-%e9%87%91%e5%b1%9e-%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd-%e9%9c%80%e6%b1%82-%e5%8f%8d%e5%bc%b9-%e4%b8%80%e8%b7%af-%e4%b8%8a%e6%b6%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2020\/12\/%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac-%e9%87%91%e5%b1%9e-%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd-%e9%9c%80%e6%b1%82-%e5%8f%8d%e5%bc%b9-%e4%b8%80%e8%b7%af-%e4%b8%8a%e6%b6%a8\/","title":{"rendered":"\u57fa\u672c\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u683c\u56e0\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\u53cd\u5f39\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u6da8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u53d7\u5230\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u91d1\u5c5e\u6709\u671b\u8dfb\u8eab2020\u5e74\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u884c\u5217\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u622a\u81f3\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u94dc\u3001\u954d\u3001\u94dd\u7b49\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u8d44\u672c\u56fd\u9645\u5de5\u4e1a\u91d1\u5c5e\u6307\u6570\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e0a\u6da821.4%\uff0c\u4ec5\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u6307\u657021.9%\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u800c\u8861\u91cf\u91d1\u5c5e\u3001\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u76f8\u5173\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14GSCI\u6307\u6570\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86\u8fd110%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u94dc\u4ef7\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u6700\u5927\u7684\u91d1\u5c5e\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5728\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u548c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u7eff\u8272\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b0\u5174\u6280\u672f\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6700\u70ed\u95e8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u975e\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u83ab\u5c5e\u30022020\u5e74\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u70bc\u94a2\u539f\u6750\u6599\u7684\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86\u8fd170%\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u7a81\u7834\u6bcf\u5428155\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8be5\u5408\u7ea62013\u5e74\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u4ef7\u683c\u8fd9\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5de5\u5382\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u6839\u636e\u9886\u5148\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6307\u6807\u2014\u2014\u6708\u5ea6\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570(PMI)\uff0c11\u6708\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8\u5904\u4e8e\u6269\u5f20\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6700\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u52bf\u5934\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u8def\u8981\u8d70\u3002\u622a\u81f311\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf\u4ecd\u6bd42\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u5c11\u4e86\u8fd11000\u4e07\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u8fd8\u5f88\u5145\u8db3<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u8fd9\u6ce2\u53cd\u5f39\u624d\u521a\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c2021\u5e74\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u8ba1\u5212\u5728\u4e0b\u4e2a\u6708\u5c31\u804c\u540e\u5c06\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5efa\u8bbe\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u9996\u8981\u4efb\u52a1\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6839\u636e\u63d0\u6848\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u6295\u5165\u9ad8\u8fbe2\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u6539\u5584\u9053\u8def\u3001\u6865\u6881\u548c\u6d77\u6e2f\uff0c\u8fd8\u5c06\u52a0\u5f3a\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5145\u7535\u7ad9\uff0c\u5c06\u6821\u8f66\u6539\u9020\u4e3a\u96f6\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u636e\u8def\u900f\u793e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u517b\u8001\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u4fdd\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u7b49\u6c11\u95f4\u6295\u8d44\u8fdb\u5165\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6491\u57fa\u672c\u91d1\u5c5e\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u539f\u56e0\u4e0e\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u523a\u6fc0\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u5370\u949e\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6709\u5173\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\uff0cBridgewater Associates\u7684\u4f20\u5947\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406Ray Dalio\u5728Reddit\u4e0a\u4e3e\u529e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u63d0\u95ee\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u6d2a\u6d41\u660e\u5e74\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ee5\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4ef7\u503c\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u91d1\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u6d41\u5411\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u57fa\u672c\u91d1\u5c5e\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u98799080\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u6cd5\u6848\u3002\u636e\u300a\u5df4\u4f26\u5468\u520a\u300b\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7(IMF)\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Gita Gopinath\u6b63\u5728\u6566\u4fc3\u56fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6551\u52a9\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5192\u7740\u52a0\u5267\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bf9\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8981\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u73b0\u5728\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5bf9\u904f\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u518d\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u4eca\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14(Jerome Powell)\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u9488\uff0c\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5e73\u57472%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7269\u4ef7\u9010\u6708\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82f1\u6587\u6765\u6e90\uff1aMining.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u53d7\u5230\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u91d1\u5c5e\u6709\u671b\u8dfb\u8eab2020\u5e74\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u884c\u5217\u3002 \u622a\u81f3\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u94dc [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":361857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[427],"tags":[1402,660,893,851,741],"class_list":["post-361860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news-zh-hans","tag-1402","tag-660","tag-893","tag-851","tag-741","sectors-base-metals-sch","sectors-mining-zh-hans","locations-china-zh-hans","locations-us-zh-hans"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=361860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361860\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/361857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=361860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=361860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=361860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}