{"id":370721,"date":"2021-02-21T22:33:06","date_gmt":"2021-02-22T06:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=370721"},"modified":"2021-02-21T22:33:06","modified_gmt":"2021-02-22T06:33:06","slug":"%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e7%84%a6%e8%99%91-%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82-%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e8%80%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2021\/02\/%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e7%84%a6%e8%99%91-%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82-%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e8%80%85\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u80c0\u7126\u8651\u5373\u5c06\u6539\u5199\u80a1\u5e02\u5267\u672c\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u89c1\u62db\u62c6\u62db\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u503a\u5238\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u654c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4fb5\u8680\u672a\u6765\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u5404\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f88\u96be\u8bf4\u662f\u5229\u597d\u8fd8\u662f\u5229\u7a7a\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7126\u8651\u6b63\u5728\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u6539\u5199\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u683c\u5c40\u548c\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5982\u4f55\u89c1\u62db\u62c6\u62db\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u80a1\u7968\u5c06\u906d\u9047\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e4f\u673a\u4f1a\u3002Ned Davis Research\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u80a1\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u76db\u96c6\u56e2\u63a8\u8350\u9500\u552e\u64ac\u52a8\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u6c7d\u8f66\u5236\u9020\u5546<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=F\">\u798f\u7279\u6c7d\u8f66Ford Motor\uff08NYSE: F\uff09<\/a>\u548c\u4f20\u5a92\u516c\u53f8<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=DISCA\">Discovery Communications Inc\uff08NASDAQ: DISCA\uff09<\/a>\u3002\u5728\u5174\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u4f9b\u9700\u5931\u8861\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u77ff\u4e1a\u80a1\u548c\u5316\u80a5\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5bf9\u51b2\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u5173\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u73b0\u5728\u5982\u4f55\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7ec8\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u5c06\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u5f71\u54cd\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u6570\u5468\uff0c\u9e70\u6d3e\u4eba\u58eb\u5df2\u7ecf\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ece\u5168\u7403\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u82af\u7247\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u521b\u51fa\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u5927\u589e\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u7684\u6108\u53d1\u5149\u660e\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\u5e76\u4e14\u66f4\u591a\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u5373\u5c06\u51fa\u53f0\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7126\u8651\u4e5f\u5728\u56db\u5904\u8513\u5ef6\u3002\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Tobias Levkovich\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6743\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u201c\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u53d1\u751f\u5668\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u9886\u5148\u6307\u6807\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7eea\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\uff0c\u201dLevkovich\u5199\u9053\u3002\u201c\u5177\u5907\u4ef7\u683c\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u80dc\u51fa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ned Davis\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u80a1\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\u30021972\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u4e5d\u6b21\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u884c\u4e1a\u4e03\u6b21\u8dd1\u8d62\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u9886\u5148\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u4e3a14\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u6295\u8d44\u98ce\u683c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u2014\u2014\u9500\u552e\u989d\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u52a0\u654f\u611f\u4e14\u4f30\u503c\u76f8\u5bf9\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u2014\u2014\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8d70\u9ad8\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u770b\u597d\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4eca\u5e74\u5927\u6da8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=XOM\">\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u7f8e\u5b5aExxon Mobil\uff08NYSE: XOM\uff09<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=MRO\">Marathon Oil Corp\uff08NYSE: MRO\uff09<\/a>\u5728\u5185\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u66b4\u6da8\u30022021\u5e74\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u5757\u9886\u8dd1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u6da8\u5e45\u662f\u6307\u6570\u7684\u516d\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u901a\u80c0\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5e76\u975e\u76f4\u622a\u4e86\u5f53\uff0c\u4f46\u900f\u8fc7\u8868\u8c61\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u7ecf\u8425\u6760\u6746\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6536\u5165\u64ac\u52a8\u5229\u6da6\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u9500\u552e\u989d\u548c\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u4f5c\u7528\u9ad8\u4e8e\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u76db\u548c\u5f6d\u535a\u7f16\u6c47\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e8c\u6708\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u6389\u884c\u4e1a\u504f\u5dee\u540e\u7ecf\u8425\u6760\u6746\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u76f8\u8f83\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u80a1\u7968\u9ad8\u51fa1.7\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6709\u671b\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u6708\u8dd1\u8d62\uff0c\u521b2013\u5e74\u7f29\u51cf\u8d2d\u503a\u6050\u614c\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u957f\u8dd1\u8d62\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-370722 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e.jpg 960w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e-800x450.jpg 800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 960px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 960\/540;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5305\u62ecDavid Kostin\u5728\u5185\u7684\u9ad8\u76db\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u884c\u4e1a\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u6750\u6599\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5bf9\u51b2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8bf8\u5982\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6784\u6210\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u901f\u63d0\u9ad8100\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u516c\u53f8\u5229\u6da6\u4e0b\u964d1%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9009\u80a1\u65f6\u66f4\u52a0\u504f\u5411\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u5360\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=UA\">Under Armour Inc\uff08NYSE: UA\uff09<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=BIIB\">Biogen Inc\uff08NASDAQ: BIIB\uff09<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u548c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u964d\u4f4e\u80a1\u7968\u4e45\u671f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u8fd1\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u201dKostin\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u5199\u9053\u3002\u201c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u63d0\u4ef7\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d76\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u53cd\u800c\u627f\u538b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u80a1\u4ef7\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7c7b\u4f3c\u94dc\u4ef7\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7b49\u6307\u6807\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff0cAndrew 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