{"id":378245,"date":"2021-04-14T00:47:16","date_gmt":"2021-04-14T07:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=378245"},"modified":"2021-04-14T00:52:38","modified_gmt":"2021-04-14T07:52:38","slug":"%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80-%e9%87%91%e4%bb%b7-%e9%bd%90%e9%a3%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2021\/04\/%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80-%e9%87%91%e4%bb%b7-%e9%bd%90%e9%a3%9e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u91d1\u4ef7\u9f50\u98de\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u51fa\u73b0\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u901a\u80c0\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9ec4\u91d1\u5386\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u901a\u80c0\u6700\u7ec8\u8981\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u6765\u52bf\u6c79\u6c79\u3002<\/p>\n

\u751a\u81f3\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u4eca\u5e74\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u4e2d \uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570(PCE)\u5e74\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u4ece2020\u5e7412\u6708\u76841.3%\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u76842.4%\u3002\u63d0\u9192\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u524d\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e3a1.8%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u4e14\u522b\u5fd8\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u8c08\u8bba\u7684\u8fd8\u53ea\u662f\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u5927\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6d88\u8d39\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u8f6c\u5411\u8d2d\u4e70\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6bd4\u5b98\u65b9\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8981\u9ad8\uff0cIMF\u6700\u8fd1\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9 \u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740FOMC\u6210\u5458\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u53c8\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u9e70\u6d3e\uff1f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u53ea\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u57fa\u6570\u6548\u5e94\uff082020\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u5b57\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff09\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\u5f15\u53d1\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5f15\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u4e0d\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u9053\u7406\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u603b\u662f\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\u8868\u793a\u201c\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3002\u8bf7\u770b\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e2d\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5e74\u548c\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\"<\/p>\n

\u6b63\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u4e2d\u671f\u548c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u90fd\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4f1a\u6682\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5148\u751f\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u672a\u67655\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a2.5%\uff0c\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u63a5\u8fd12.3%\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a82%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7136\u4e86\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u5148\u751f\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b8c\u5168\u5728\u592e\u884c\u63a7\u5236\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u81ea\u8d1f\u66fe\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e8620\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6ede\u80c0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u653e\u5f02\u5f69\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4eca\u5929\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u603b\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u9ad8\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u540e\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684Robert J. Barro\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u957f\u671f\u9884\u671f\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u624e\u6839\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c06\u6709\u9650\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u800c\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u65b0\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u8d85\u989d\u5b8c\u6210\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6d6a\u8d39Paul Volcker\u521b\u9020\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u8131\u951a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d1f\u9762\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u592e\u884c\u8fdb\u884c\u5bbd\u677e\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u660e\u767d\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u975e\u540c\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\u6b63\u5e38\u3002\u4f46\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fdc\u672a\u5b9e\u73b0\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u3002\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6700\u8fd1\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u963b\u788d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\u89c6\u4e3a\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6982\u51b5\u4e00\u4e0b\u5c31\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u50cf\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684Kenneth Rogoff\u6240\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u548c\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5371\u9669\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u4e0e\u5927\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u540e\u53ea\u6709\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u7840\u66b4\u6da8\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u5e7f\u4e49\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5728\u98d9\u5347\u2013\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n

\"M2\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u901f\"<\/p>\n

\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c2007-2009\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u521b\u9020\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4e3b\u8981\u6d41\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u90fd\u66f4\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u6d41\u5165\u4e86\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u6709\u751a\u8005\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u975e\u5e38\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u7a7a\u524d\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u66f4\u6df1\u5730\u9677\u5165\u503a\u52a1\u9677\u9631\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u592e\u884c\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u53ca\u65f6\u5b9e\u73b0\u5229\u7387\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff0c\u66f4\u4f55\u51b5\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u5f71\u54cd\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u6d17\u724c\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u6700\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u602a\u517d\u903c\u8fd1\u7684\u5148\u5146\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e02\u573a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\u5427\uff0c2021\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u7684\u98d9\u5347\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5229\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4f5c\u4e3a\u901a\u80c0\u5bf9\u51b2\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u91d1\u4ef7\u6784\u6210\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u62b5\u6d88\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u957f\u671f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u5927\u653e\u5f02\u5f69\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u901a\u80c0\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9ec4\u91d1\u5386\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u901a\u80c0\u6700\u7ec8\u8981\u6bd4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":378262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[427],"tags":[659,440],"class_list":["post-378245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news-zh-hans","tag-659","tag-440","sectors-gold-zh-hans","locations-618","locations-europe-zh-hans","locations-us-zh-hans"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=378245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378245\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/378262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=378245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=378245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=378245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}