{"id":466840,"date":"2023-07-13T00:53:39","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T07:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=466840"},"modified":"2023-07-13T00:53:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T07:53:39","slug":"2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%ba%8c%e5%ad%a3%e5%ba%a6-%e9%93%9c%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be-%e4%b8%8b%e5%8d%8a%e5%b9%b4-%e9%93%9c%e4%bb%b7%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2023\/07\/2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%ba%8c%e5%ad%a3%e5%ba%a6-%e9%93%9c%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be-%e4%b8%8b%e5%8d%8a%e5%b9%b4-%e9%93%9c%e4%bb%b7%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"2023\u5e74\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u94dc\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u94dc\u4ef7\u9884\u6d4b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5982\u679c\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u94dc\u4ef7\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u6ce2\u52a8\u201d\u30022023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u94dc\u4ef7\u90fd\u8fd0\u884c\u57288000\u7f8e\u5143\/\u5428\u7684\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c1\u670823\u65e5\u66f4\u662f\u89e6\u53ca\u5e74\u5185\u9ad8\u70b9\u76849356\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u94dc\u4ef7\u672a\u80fd\u5b88\u4f4f\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u53c8\u8dcc\u56de\u5230\u4e86\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u94dc\u4ef7\u8d70\u52bf<\/h2>\n

\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u521d\u94dc\u4ef7\u62a58917\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5b63\u5185\u6700\u9ad8\u70b9\u662f4\u670813\u65e5\u76849058.50\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u540e\u4e00\u8def\u8dcc\u81f3\u5b63\u5185\u4f4e\u70b9\u76847901.50\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u94dc\u4ef7\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u6536\u4e8e8315.50\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc7600\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8ddf\u5e74\u521d\u57fa\u672c\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u94dc\u4ef7\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8def\u5b5a\u7279\u548cLSEG\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5206\u6790\u5e08Federico Gay\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f00\u59cb\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c4\u6708\u7684\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570\uff08PMI\uff09\u51fa\u73b0\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u8981\u6bd4\u6700\u521d\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u505c\u6ede\u8d8a\u53d1\u660e\u663e\u3002\u94dc\u4ef7\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6674\u96e8\u8868\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u65f6\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

2023\u5e74\u94dc\u7684\u4f9b\u9700<\/h2>\n

\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u94dc\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5f31\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u4e5f\u65bd\u538b\u94dc\u4ef7\u3002CRU Group\u7684Robert Edwards\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6240\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u6b20\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u8bf8\u5982\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u548c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u2014\u2014\u7b49\u7eff\u8272\u80fd\u6e90\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u94dc\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u5bf9\u4f9d\u7136\u575a\u633a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u5173\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u8def\u5b5a\u7279\u7684Gay\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u63a8\u51fa\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u547c\u58f0\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u8bf8\u5982\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5c0f\u884c\u4e1a\u7b49\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u632f\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u5982\u9884\u671f\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7f13\u3002<\/p>\n

Edwards\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u5373\u4f7f\u51fa\u73b0\u590d\u82cf\u5e45\u5ea6\u9884\u8ba1\u4e5f\u5c06\u6709\u9650\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u5e02\u573a\u592a\u5c0f\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u5728Gay\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6218\u65bd\u538b\u94dc\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5de5\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u56de\u6696\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u4e5f\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u5468\u671f\u62c9\u957f\uff0c2030\u5e74\u5e95\u4e4b\u524d\u94dc\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u4f9b\u7ed9\u77ed\u7f3a\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u521d\u7ea7\u77ff\u5546\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u589e\u52a0\u65b0\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u5b58\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u969c\u788d\u3002<\/p>\n

Edwards\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u969c\u788d\u5305\u62ec\u77ff\u5546\u6279\u51c6\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u610f\u613f\u4e0d\u5f3a\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u73af\u5883\u6b20\u4f73\u3002Gay\u8868\u793a\u8d5e\u540c\uff0c\u79f0\u5f53\u524d\u6700\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u667a\u5229\u548c\u79d8\u9c81\u7b49\u77ff\u4e1a\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u77ff\u4e1a\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u957f\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7f3a\u4e4f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c06\u4fb5\u8680\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6295\u8d44\u653e\u7f13\u3002<\/p>\n

2023\u5e74\u94dc\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b<\/h2>\n

\u77ed\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u94dc\u5e02\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5305\u62ec\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u4f26\u6566\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08LME\uff09\u94dc\u7684\u4f4e\u5e93\u5b58\uff08\u622a\u81f37\u67084\u65e5\u4e3a6.72\u5428\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\uff0cCRU\u9884\u8ba1\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u94dc\u4ef7\u5c06\u5448\u533a\u95f4\u9707\u8361\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u5747\u4ef7\u57288500\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002Gay\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c7\u6708\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u79ef\u6781\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u94dc\u4ef7\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u751a\u81f3\u7a81\u78349000\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u652f\u6491\u94dc\u4ef7\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

FocusEconomics\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u94dc\u4ef7\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fd0\u884c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de5\u4e1a\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u4ee5\u53ca\u523a\u6fc0\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u7aef\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u91cd\u70b9\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7aef\uff0c\u667a\u5229\u548c\u79d8\u9c81\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u4ee5\u53ca\u77ff\u5c71\u7684\u52b3\u8d44\u7ea0\u7eb7\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u94dc\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u6784\u6210\u4e0a\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u9884\u8ba12023\u5e74\u94dc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a8341\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u5747\u4ef7\u57288426\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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