{"id":470360,"date":"2023-08-22T23:05:13","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T06:05:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=470360"},"modified":"2023-08-22T23:05:13","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T06:05:13","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a18%e6%9c%88%e6%9a%b4%e8%b7%8c-%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b%e5%90%8e%e5%b8%82-%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97-%e5%a4%9a%e7%a9%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2023\/08\/%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a18%e6%9c%88%e6%9a%b4%e8%b7%8c-%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b%e5%90%8e%e5%b8%82-%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97-%e5%a4%9a%e7%a9%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u80a18\u6708\u66b4\u8dcc\uff01\u5c55\u671b\u540e\u5e02\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5f62\u6210\u591a\u7a7a\u4e24\u5927\u9635\u8425"},"content":{"rendered":"

8\u6708\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u9ad8\u6b4c\u731b\u8fdb\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u524d7\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u6da821%\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7eb7\u7eb7\u6d8c\u5165\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e5f\u6e10\u6e10\u6de1\u5316\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb3\u5468\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u8f6c\u5934\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea65%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba9\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u3002\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb30\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\uff0c8\u6708\u662f\u5168\u5e74\u8868\u73b0\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5dee\u7684\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u9664\u4e86\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u98d9\u5347\u4e5f\u5728\u62d6\u7d2f\u80a1\u5e02\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u653e\u5f03\u4e86\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u300210\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5728\u53bb\u5e744\u6708\u89e6\u53ca\u7ea63.68%\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u4e00\u8df3\u5347\u8fd110\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f34.3%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fbe\u52302007\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5bfc\u81f4\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u62d6\u7d2f\u516c\u53f8\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u9ad8\u6210\u957f\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u53d7\u4f24\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u503a\u5238\u539f\u672c\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u5c31\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u540e\u4e89\u593a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5c31\u66f4\u5f3a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u4e4f\u529b\u62d6\u7d2f\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u5916\u6ea2\u5230\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u3002\u53e0\u52a0\u60e0\u8a89\u8c03\u964d\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u524d\u666f\u4f9d\u7136\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73b0\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e5f\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u80a1\u51fa\u73b0\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\u540e\u5e02\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u8d70\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u542c\u542c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u770b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u76db<\/h2>\n

\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u91cd\u7533\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u5e74\u5e954700\u70b9\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u76f8\u8f83\u76ee\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u8fd8\u6709\u5927\u7ea68%\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a8\u6708\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65e0\u9700\u6050\u614c\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f9d\u7136\u8fd8\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u80a1\u7968\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u6563\u6237\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u8d22\u62a5\u5b63\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u8d2d\u5c06\u4f1a\u66b4\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a<\/h2>\n

\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u4e0a\u5468\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u50a8\u84c4\u5df2\u7ecf\u7528\u5149\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Marko Kolanovic\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u5e74\u5e95\u5c06\u6536\u4e8e4200\u70b9\uff0c\u76f8\u8f83\u76ee\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea64.4%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229<\/h2>\n

\u57288\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u8d22\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u98d9\u5347\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u503a\u5238\u800c\u975e\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98Lisa Shalett\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u8d44\u4ea7\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u5bf9\u51b2\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u73b0\u91d1\u914d\u7f6e\u7ed9\u7968\u9762\u5229\u7387\u57284.5%-5.5%\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u589e\u503c\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

Fundstrat<\/h2>\n

Fundstrat\u7684Tom Lee\u5468\u4e00\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u6770\u514b\u900a\u970d\u5c14\u5168\u7403\u592e\u884c\u5e74\u4f1a\u4ee5\u53ca\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbeNVIDIA\uff08NASDAQ:NVDA\uff09\u7684\u8d22\u62a5\u8fd9\u4e24\u5927\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u672c\u5468\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u6da8\u3002Lee\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u89e6\u53ca4825\u70b9\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u80a1\u5e02\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u56de\u843d\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u53d7\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e70\u8dcc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

Stifel<\/h2>\n

Stifel\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Barry Bannister\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u4e0a\u6da8\u884c\u60c5\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4f9d\u7136\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u57282024\u5e74\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4eca\u5e74\u6536\u4e8e4400\u70b9\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u76ee\u524d\u70b9\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

Michael Burry<\/h2>\n

\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u5927\u7a7a\u5934Michael Burry\u505a\u7a7a\u8ddf\u8e2a\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u548c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b100\u6307\u6570\u7684\u4e24\u53eaETF\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u64cd\u4f5c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u51b2\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u4e86Burry\u770b\u7a7a\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u53ea\u57fa\u91d1\u7531\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7279\u65af\u62c9Tesla Inc\uff08NASDAQ:TSLA\uff09\u548c\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e3b\u5bfc\uff0c\u800cBurry\u8fc7\u53bb\u91cd\u590d\u63d0\u793a\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\uff0c\u4ed6\u5224\u65ad\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u548c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc750%\u3002<\/p>\n

David Rosenberg<\/h2>\n

Rosenberg Research\u7684\u603b\u88c1David Rosenberg\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u80a1\u5c06\u4f1a\u91cd\u590d\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f9d\u636e\u5305\u62ec\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u5c06\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5e76\u672a\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u66b4\u8dcc\u81f320\u5e74\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u629b\u5f03\u201c\u8d85\u7ea7\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u201d\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e14\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u201d\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u3002<\/p>\n

Jeremy Grantham<\/h2>\n

GMO\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4ebaJeremy Grantham\u6700\u8fd1\u5c06\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\u6bd4\u4f5c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u8ba1\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u66b4\u8dcc\u3002\u6309\u7167Grantham\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4f4e\u81f3\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u4ee5\u53ca\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u63a8\u9ad8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5904\u4e8e\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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