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\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08John Stoltzfus\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u56e2\u961f\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba12024\u5e74\u5c06\u662f\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u4ece\u9650\u5236\u6027\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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Stoltzfus\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u57282024\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u6700\u665a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n

John Stoltzfus\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u56e2\u961f\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u675f\u5f53\u524d\u57fa\u51c6\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e34\u65f6\u964d\u606f\u751a\u81f3\u4e0a\u8c03\u5229\u7387\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u5e74\u521d\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u8c03\u5229\u7387\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5468\u4e00\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u672c\u5468\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57285.25%-5.5%\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a98%\uff0c\u52301\u6708\u4efd\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a94%\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6839\u636eCME FedWatch Tool\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u81f3\u5c11\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a38.4%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e00\u5468\u524d\u768457.4%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u65b9\u9762\uff0cStoltzfus\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u3001\u901a\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u7c7b\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u5468\u671f\u6027\u884c\u4e1a\u57282023\u5e74\u5f15\u9886\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5229\u7387\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1\u4f01\u4e1a\u6536\u5165\u548c\u76c8\u5229\u5c06\u57282024\u5e74\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u6bcf\u80a1240\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6839\u636eFactSet\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u6307\u6570\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8d85\u8fc718\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

Stoltzfus\u65af\u662f\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6700\u770b\u6da8\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u4ed6\u73b0\u5728\u4e0eFundstrat\u7684Tom Lee\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5bf92024\u5e74\u7684\u524d\u666f\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

Yardeni Research\u7684EdYardeni\u4e5f\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8d85\u7ea7\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u8fbe\u52305400\u70b9\uff0c\u52302025\u5e74\u5c06\u8fbe\u52306000\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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