{"id":589181,"date":"2025-08-22T07:35:24","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=589181"},"modified":"2025-08-22T07:35:24","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:35:24","slug":"jackson-hole-powell-tlt-spy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2025\/08\/jackson-hole-powell-tlt-spy\/","title":{"rendered":"Jackson Hole\uff1aPowell \u5c06 TLT\u3001SPY \u7f6e\u4e8e\u964d\u606f\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e4b\u4e0b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u503a\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5e26\u7740\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u5927\u91cf\u7b79\u7801\u8fdb\u5165 Jackson Hole\u3002\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u73b0\u5728\u6697\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u4e5d\u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a 70%\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5728\u6d3b\u52a8\u524d\u5915\u4ecd\u5728\u6500\u5347\u3002\u4e3b\u5e2d Jerome Powell \u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u6f14\u8bb2\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u8f6f\uff0cS&P 500 \u4e0b\u8dcc 0.4% \u81f3 6,370\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u65af\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.3%\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.3%\u3002\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u968f\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u540c\u6b65\u56de\u843d\u3002Powell \u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd\u8981\u4e48\u8bc1\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u63d0\u524d\u5bbd\u677e\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u8feb\u4f7f\u8de8\u671f\u9650\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u4fe1\u7528\u5b9a\u4ef7\u91cd\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n

\u671f\u8d27\u5b9a\u4ef7\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8868\u793a\u6162\u70b9<\/h3>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u8131\u8282\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\u3002\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u524d\u7aef\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e5d\u6708\u83b7\u6551\uff0c\u800c\u957f\u671f\u7aef\u5374\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u671f\u9650\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7684\u9ecf\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u7387\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6309\u63ed\u6210\u672c\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u95e8\u69db\u4ee5\u5341\u5e74\u671f\u4e3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a Powell \u652f\u6301\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u964d\u606f\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u5df2\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u725b\u5e02\u9661\u5ced\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63a8\u52a8\u671f\u9650\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u7f13\u89e3\u6027\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u82e5\u4ed6\u504f\u5411\u66f4\u9e70\u6d3e\uff0c\u524d\u7aef\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7b79\u7801\u5c06\u88ab\u4e0b\u8c03\uff0c\u4e8c\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u54ea\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5229\u5dee\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5356\u65b9\u90fd\u9700\u91cd\u65b0\u6838\u67e5\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n

Powell \u98ce\u9669\u4e34\u8fd1\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u8f6f<\/h3>\n

\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8c\u5143\u6c9f\u901a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u7f29\u51cf\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u6f14\u8bb2\u524d\u56de\u843d\u3002S&P 500 \u4e0b\u8dcc 25.61 \u70b9\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u4e0b\u8dcc 152.81 \u70b9\uff0c\u7eb3\u6307\u4e0b\u8dcc 72.54 \u70b9\uff0c\u5de8\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4e0e\u5468\u671f\u80a1\u5171\u540c\u627f\u62c5\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002\u6b64\u8f6e\u56de\u64a4\u4e5f\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u8c28\u614e\u7684\u8bed\u6c14\u76f8\u547c\u5e94\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e5f\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u64a4\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5728\u7ea6 112,300\uff0c\u7f8e\u5200\uff0c\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u5728\u7ea6 4,250\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u662f\u4e5d\u6708\u964d\u606f\u5e94\u5229\u597d\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u66f4\u8270\u96be\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u662f\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u5e38\u5728\u589e\u957f\u52a8\u80fd\u51cf\u5f31\u65f6\u5230\u6765\u3002\u80a1\u6307\u5c06\u4ea4\u6613 Powell \u63cf\u7ed8\u7684\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u5bbd\u677e\u800c\u975e\u6709\u4f59\u5730\u5bbd\u677e\uff0c\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

Powell \u7684\u6311\u6218\uff1a\u5f15\u5bfc\u800c\u4e0d\u9884\u5148\u627f\u8bfa<\/h3>\n

Jackson Hole \u662f\u653f\u7b56\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u821e\u53f0\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u65b0\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u53d1\u5e03\u3002Powell \u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u53ef\u9009\u6027\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5f15\u5bfc\u4e00\u4e2a\u7126\u8651\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u5b8c\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u516c\u91cc\u3002\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5fc5\u987b\u627f\u8ba4\u4ef7\u683c\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d8b\u8f6f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u6697\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5df2\u5bf9\u4e5d\u6708\u6309\u4e0b\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u952e\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u8868\u6001\u660e\u786e\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u4ed6\u4f1a\u5c06\u653f\u7b56\u8868\u8ff0\u4e3a\u7d27\u7f29\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u5229\u7387\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u5bfb\u627e\u4ed6\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0a\u8c03\u6216\u4e0b\u8c03\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u51fa\u73b0\u7ec6\u5fae\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6570\u5206\u949f\u5185\u79fb\u52a8\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\uff1a\u591a\u5c11\u8fdb\u5c55\u624d\u591f<\/h3>\n

\u901a\u7f29\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e00\u76f4\u566a\u58f0\u8f83\u591a\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u4ece\u9ad8\u57fa\u6570\u964d\u6e29\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u73b0\u5728\u5230\u4e5d\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002Powell \u53ef\u4ee5\u6307\u5411\u6536\u7a84\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5de5\u8d44\u52a8\u529b\u548c\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u5173\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u4ecd\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u51b3\u5b9a\u524d\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u6279\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u675f\u7f1a\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u503e\u659c\u3002\u5982\u679c Powell \u8868\u793a\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u6b63\u5728\u8010\u4e45\u6027\u56de\u843d\u4e14\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u51fa\u73b0\u677e\u5f1b\uff0c\u524d\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u50cf TLT \u548c IEF \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u671f\u9650 ETF \u5e94\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u4e70\u76d8\u9752\u7750\u3002\u82e5\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4e5d\u6708\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u5c06\u88ab\u4fb5\u8680\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u7c7b\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6807\u4f1a\u6643\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u6cbb\u5728\u5fae\u5999\u65f6\u523b\u4ecb\u5165<\/h3>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u66f4\u55a7\u56a3\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u822a\u884c\u3002\u672c\u5468\u7406\u4e8b Lisa Cook \u5426\u8ba4\u8981\u6c42\u5979\u8f9e\u804c\u7684\u547c\u58f0\u7cfb\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u8fd9\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u56f4\u7ed5\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002Powell \u4f1a\u907f\u514d\u5377\u5165\u8fd9\u573a\u7eb7\u4e89\uff0c\u4f46\u80cc\u666f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u6697\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u5411\u5916\u90e8\u8981\u6c42\u5c48\u670d\u800c\u975e\u4f9d\u636e\u6570\u636e\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u90fd\u5c06\u635f\u5bb3\u5176\u4fe1\u8a89\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u5e76\u4f20\u8fbe\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u7531\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e02\u573a\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u65e2\u662f\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e5f\u662f\u9694\u79bb\u63aa\u65bd\uff1a\u7ef4\u62a4\u6297\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u951a\u5b9a\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u652f\u6301\u957f\u671f\u771f\u5b9e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bb2\u8bdd\u7684\u4e24\u6761\u6e05\u6670\u8def\u5f84<\/h3>\n

\u82e5 Powell \u9a8c\u8bc1\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e5d\u6708\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u671b\u5728\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u9886\u57df\u770b\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\u6027\u53cd\u5f39\u3002TLT\u3001IEF \u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7ea7\u4fe1\u7528\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u6ed1\u548c\u671f\u9650\u83b7\u5f97\u652f\u6301\u65f6\u5c06\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u7531\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u548c\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u677f\u5757\u9886\u6da8\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u878d\u80a1\u5219\u5728\u66f4\u9661\u5ced\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\u548c\u51c0\u5229\u5dee\u6536\u7a84\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u5316\u3002\u82e5\u4ed6\u53cd\u51fb\u5e76\u5c06\u4e5d\u6708\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u800c\u975e\u5f88\u5927\u6982\u7387\u201d\uff0c\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5c06\u8fc5\u901f\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u4e8c\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5e94\u4f1a\u8df3\u5347\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u9ad8\u671f\u9650\u654f\u611f\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u548c\u4e0e\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4f1a\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u6760\u6746\u4fe1\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u4ec5\u56e0\u91d1\u878d\u72b6\u51b5\u6536\u7d27\u800c\u7565\u5fae\u8d70\u9614\u3002\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u5f62\u4e2d\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u5c06\u63ed\u793a\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

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