{"id":595053,"date":"2025-09-25T06:29:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T13:29:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=595053"},"modified":"2025-09-25T06:29:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T13:29:13","slug":"miran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2025\/09\/miran\/","title":{"rendered":"Miran \u8bf4\u5229\u7387\u8fc7\u7d27\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u66f4\u5feb\u964d\u606f\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u7406\u4e8b Stephen Miran \u6b63\u5728\u6566\u4fc3\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u5f62\u52bf\u3002\u4ed6\u79f0\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u201c\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66f4\u7d27\u201d\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4ece\u5927\u7ea6 4.1% \u964d\u81f3\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1 2.5%\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u548c\u589e\u957f\u9020\u6210\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4ed6\u5728\u4e5d\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u552f\u4e00\u6301\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u89c1\u3001\u504f\u597d\u534a\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u964d\u606f\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6240\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u70b9\u964d\u606f\u4e4b\u540e\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u73b0\u5728\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5728\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5185\u90e8\u83b7\u5f97\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n

Miran \u4e3a\u901f\u5ea6\u8fa9\u62a4<\/h3>\n

Miran \u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u2014\u2014\u65e2\u4e0d\u52a0\u901f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u51cf\u7f13\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6c34\u5e73\u2014\u2014\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u79fb\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u6bd4\u6807\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u6697\u793a\u7684\u66f4\u4e3a\u7d27\u7f29\u3002\u4ed6\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u79df\u91d1\u901a\u80c0\u7f13\u548c\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u653e\u677e\u7ba1\u5236\u3001\u7a0e\u5236\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0e\u5173\u7a0e\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u5df2\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u5219\u5c06\u653f\u7b56\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u5176\u4e0a\u65b9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u73b0\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4ee5\u540e\u66f4\u9661\u5ced\u7684\u964d\u5e45\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u987d\u56fa\u65f6\u671f\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u9ad8\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\u5171\u8bc6\u6784\u6210\u6311\u6218\u3002\u968f\u7740\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7b49\u5f85\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0cMiran \u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u9677\u9631\u3002<\/p>\n

\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613<\/h3>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u542c\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u3002\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u5e74\u672b\u524d\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u66f2\u7ebf\u77ed\u7aef\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6697\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u5feb\u4e8e\u6307\u5f15\u8f6c\u5411\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u90fd\u5f88\u654f\u611f\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u9884\u671f\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u7684\u4e24\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u518d\u6821\u51c6\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u7f29\u5c0f\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u82e5\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u628a\u5b83\u89c6\u4e3a\u505a\u4e45\u671f\u548c\u6210\u957f\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u7eff\u706f\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ea4\u6613\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u7684\u5f02\u8bae\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5373\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\u3001\u623f\u79df\uff08shelter\uff09\u901a\u80c0\u7f13\u548c\u548c\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u2014\u2014\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u6000\u7591\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u62bc\u6ce8\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u5f02\u8bae\u4e0e\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u95ee\u9898<\/h3>\n

Miran \u504f\u597d\u534a\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u4e5d\u6708\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u5f02\u8bae\u8005\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u4ed6\u613f\u610f\u8d70\u591a\u8fdc\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u5728\u91cd\u89c6\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf Donald Trump \u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u8eab\u4efd\u6fc0\u8d77\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u592e\u884c\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u4e88\u4ee5\u53cd\u9a73\uff0c\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u767d\u5bab\u6307\u793a\u3002\u4f46\u5916\u754c\u89c2\u611f\u4ecd\u7136\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5176\u4e0d\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u3002\u5982\u679c Miran \u7684\u8bae\u7a0b\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u6765\u81ea\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u9053\uff08\u767d\u5bab\uff09\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u4ee4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6b64\u6253\u6298\u6263\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5bf9\u4e0b\u843d\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u4fb5\u8680\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u6539\u53d8 FOMC \u5185\u7684\u91cd\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u5f80 2.5% \u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7b97\u672f<\/h3>\n

\u63a5\u8fd1 2.5% \u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u7ee7\u7eed\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ec8\u70b9\u4e0e\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u60c5\u5f62\u76f8\u7b26\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\u88ab\u951a\u5b9a\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u4fe1\u8d37\u6e20\u9053\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53d7\u538b\u3002Miran \u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u9762\u6539\u5584\u2014\u2014\u66f4\u591a\u52b3\u52a8\u8005\u3001\u6280\u672f\u91c7\u7eb3\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u3001\u623f\u79df\u6210\u672c\u7f13\u548c\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u51cf\u5f31\u65f6\u4e5f\u80fd\u652f\u6491\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u7136\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u540e\u95e8\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u538b\u7f29\u62db\u8058\u3001\u63a8\u9ad8\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u635f\u5bb3\u4e4b\u524d\u51b2\u51fb\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u4e3b\u52a8\u653e\u677e\u53ef\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u589e\u957f\u505c\u6ede\u540e\u4ed3\u4fc3\u91cd\u542f\u5f15\u64ce\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u4fe1\u8d37\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h3>\n

\u5982\u679c Miran \u5360\u636e\u4e0a\u98ce\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u578b\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u9053\u7406\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u3002\u8f83\u957f\u671f\u4e45\u671f\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u7c7b\u80a1\u7968\u2014\u2014\u5982 AAPL\u3001MSFT\u3001GOOGL\u2014\u2014\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4ece\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u968f\u7740\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u548c\u623f\u5c4b\u5efa\u7b51\u5546\u5c06\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\u3002\u6c7d\u8f66\u5236\u9020\u5546\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u5236\u9020\u5546\uff08\u5305\u62ec Tesla\uff09\u5bf9\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u5f39\u6027\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5730\u533a\u6027\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u50cf JPMorgan \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u82e5\u66f2\u7ebf\u53d8\u9661\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0d\u4e25\u91cd\u538b\u7f29\u51c0\u5229\u606f\u5dee\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6b22\u8fce\u66f4\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u63a8\u52a8\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5957\u5229\u6536\u76ca\uff08carry\uff09\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u8f6f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u632f\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u53cd\u9762\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\u8b66\u60d5\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u8fc7\u5feb\u5e76\u91cd\u71c3\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5c06\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4f55 Miran \u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u2014\u2014\u7269\u4ef7\u7f13\u548c\u800c\u975e\u9700\u6c42\u53d7\u632b\u5f0f\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u523a\u6fc0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\u9e70\u6d3e\u7684\u53cd\u51fb<\/h3>\n

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