{"id":595471,"date":"2025-09-29T00:44:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:44:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/dont-wait-for-the-pullback-why-strategists-say-high-p-es-are-here-to-stay\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T00:44:22","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:44:22","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e9%94%9a%e5%ae%9a%e6%96%b0%e5%b8%b8%e6%80%81%ef%bc%8c%e5%91%8a%e5%88%ab%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%e6%81%90%e6%83%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2025\/09\/%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e9%94%9a%e5%ae%9a%e6%96%b0%e5%b8%b8%e6%80%81%ef%bc%8c%e5%91%8a%e5%88%ab%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%e6%81%90%e6%83%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u951a\u5b9a\u201c\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\u201d\uff0c\u544a\u522b\u6ce1\u6cab\u6050\u60e7"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u968f\u7740\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4ea4\u6613\u70b9\u4f4d\u63a5\u8fd1\u5386\u53f2\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u6b63\u9010\u6e10\u903c\u8fd1\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u65b0\u601d\u8003\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u5e38\u6001\u201d\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Savita Subramanian\u8fd1\u65e5\u5728\u5ba2\u6237\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u5c06\u5f53\u524d\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u89c6\u4e3a\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u671f\u5f85\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u8fc7\u5f80\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u7ef4\u8f6c\u53d8\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5168\u9762\u91cd\u4f30\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\u6765\u81ea\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u666e\u53ca\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u589e\u957f\u3002CFRA Research\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Sam Stovall\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u5747\u503c\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u4ee5\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e94\u5e74\u4e3a\u53c2\u7167\u7cfb\u5219\u663e\u5f97\u66f4\u4e3a\u5408\u7406\u3002\u4ed6\u5206\u6790\u79f0\uff0c\u5bf9\u680720\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7ea640%\uff1b\u4f46\u82e5\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8fd1\u4e94\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u2014\u2014\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5df2\u7f29\u5c0f\u81f3\u4e2a\u4f4d\u6570\u9ad8\u4f4d\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u573a\u4f30\u503c\u8fa9\u8bba\u5df2\u8d85\u8d8a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8fd1\u671f\u627f\u8ba4\u5e02\u573a\u201c\u4f30\u503c\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\u201d\uff0c\u6b64\u8a00\u8ba9\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u8d77\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u827e\u4f26\u00b7\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f581996\u5e74\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u201d\u7684\u8457\u540d\u8b66\u544a\u2014\u2014\u800c\u8be5\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u51fa\u4e09\u5e74\u591a\u540e\uff0c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u624d\u6700\u7ec8\u7834\u88c2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>iCapital\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Sonali Basak\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u63f4\u5f15\u4e1a\u5185\u4e13\u5bb6\u89c2\u70b9\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u9876\u90e8\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee3\u4ef7\u60e8\u91cd\u3002\u5979\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u8b66\u544a\u540e\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u53c8\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u6570\u5e74\u201d\uff0c\u575a\u5b88\u573a\u5916\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u6700\u7ec8\u5d29\u76d8\u524d\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u4e94\u500d\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u8d22\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8Ritholtz Wealth Management\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98Barry Ritholtz\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u731c\u9876\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u80dc\u7b97\u6781\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u652f\u6491\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c<\/h2>\n<p>\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u8bad\u6b63\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08Ed Yardeni\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6807\u666e500\u8fdc\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u5df2\u8fbe22.8\u500d\uff08\u63a5\u8fd11999\u5e74\u79d1\u6280\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u524d25\u500d\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u957f\u57fa\u672c\u8ddf\u4e0a\u4e86\u80a1\u4ef7\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u5173\u952e\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff1a\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u671f\u6ce1\u6cab\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u7c7b\u80a1\u5360\u6807\u666e500\u5e02\u503c\u768440%\uff0c\u5374\u4ec5\u8d21\u732e23%\u7684\u76c8\u5229\uff1b\u800c\u4eca\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u5360\u6bd4\u8fbe\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u768444%\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u8d21\u732e\u7387\u4e5f\u63d0\u5347\u81f337%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f30\u503c\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4f46\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u5e76\u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u6ce1\u6cab\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002Cetera Financial Group\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98Gene Goldman\u8868\u793a\uff1a2025\u5e74\u5e02\u573a\u8868\u73b0\u975e\u51e1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b03%-5%\u7684\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u4efb\u4f55\u56de\u8c03\u90fd\u662f\u9022\u4f4e\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u826f\u673a\u3002\u4ed6\u5217\u4e3e\u5f3a\u52b2GDP\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u97e7\u6027\u5341\u8db3\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u4ee5\u53ca\u573a\u5916\u95f2\u7f6e\u8d44\u91d1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u5173\u952e\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u672a\u89c1\u718a\u5e02\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u624d\u662f\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u2014\u2014\u800c\u5f53\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u5f53\u7a33\u5065\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728Goldman\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u201c\u7194\u6da8\u201d\u800c\u975e\u5d29\u76d8\u2014\u2014\u968f\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u8ffd\u9010\u4e1a\u7ee9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u96c6\u4f53\u6d8c\u5165\u5e02\u573a\u63a8\u9ad8\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e2026\u5e74\u76c8\u5229\u9884\u671f\u4fdd\u6301\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u6269\u5927\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u6709\u671b\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8fd0\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u968f\u7740\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4ea4\u6613\u70b9\u4f4d\u63a5\u8fd1\u5386\u53f2\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u6b63\u9010\u6e10\u903c\u8fd1\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":592938,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[430],"tags":[2408,2415,1787,558],"class_list":["post-595471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trends-strategies-zh-hans","tag-ai-zh-hans","tag-u-s-stocks-zh-hans","tag-1787","tag-558","sectors-technology-zh-hans","locations-us-zh-hans"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595471"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595471\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":595474,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595471\/revisions\/595474"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/592938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}