{"id":597418,"date":"2025-10-09T07:09:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T14:09:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2025\/10\/30\/"},"modified":"2025-10-09T07:09:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T14:09:36","slug":"30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2025\/10\/30\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f53\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\u8bf4\u201c30%\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u95ee\u95ee\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e3a\u96f6\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48"},"content":{"rendered":"

30%\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4fee\u6b63\u6982\u7387\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u662f\u6096\u8bba\u3002\u6096\u8bba\u5728\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e38\u5e38\u628a\u4efb\u4f55\u4f4e\u4e8e50%\u7684\u4e8b\u5f53\u4f5c\u96f6\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u5931\u6548\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u53ef\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u968f\u610f\u5ffd\u89c6\u50cf\u6865\u6881\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u529b\u4e00\u6837\u7d2f\u79ef\u3002Jamie Dimon \u518d\u6b21\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u201c\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u66f4\u62c5\u5fe7\u201d\u3002\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u65f6\u70b9\u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6bd4\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u504f\u597d\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4f4d\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u5e73\u7a33\u73af\u5883\u7684CEO\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u793a\u5236\u5ea6\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ed6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5c0f\u6570\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u4e0b\u7684\u627f\u8f7d\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n

Dimon \u7684 30% \u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5934\u6761\u98ce\u9669<\/h3>\n

\u57fa\u51c6\u6982\u7387\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386 10% \u7684\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\u51e0\u5e74\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0 20% \u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u51fa\u73b0 30% \u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u6982\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u6539\u9020\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u518d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u73b0\u91d1\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5783\u573e\u3002\u6760\u6746\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3002\u957f\u671f\u4e45\u671f\u8d44\u4ea7\u88ab\u56de\u6d4b\u51a0\u4ee5\u5b89\u5168\u4e4b\u540d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56de\u6d4b\u59cb\u4e8e\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u4ece\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u4e0e\u540d\u4e3a The Fed Put \u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u91cd\u590d\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u671f\u5f85\u6bcf\u6b21\u6ce2\u52a8\u98d9\u5347\u65f6\u90fd\u6709\u6551\u52a9\u5747\u8861\u3002\u8be5\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u826f\u6027\u65f6\u671f\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5374\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u53d8\u65f6\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u706d\u7edd\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6bc1\u706d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f30\u503c\u3001\u57fa\u51c6\u9891\u7387\u4e0e\u627f\u8f7d\u6781\u9650<\/h3>\n

Dimon \u5c06\u80a1\u5e02\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e3a\u81a8\u80c0\u3001\u4f30\u503c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u9876\u7aef\u5341\u5206\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u9884\u6d4b\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u65f6\uff0c\u80a1\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u504f\u8584\u3002\u8bb0\u4f4f\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u6cd5\u5219\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6781\u9650\u65f6\u4f1a\u56e0\u5c0f\u51b2\u51fb\u800c\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b2\u51fb\u5728\u8f83\u8f7b\u8d1f\u8f7d\u4e0b\u672c\u53ef\u88ab\u5438\u6536\u3002\u5982\u679c\u671f\u9650\u6ea2\u4ef7\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u6216\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7a0d\u5fae\u66f4\u9ad8\u5e76\u6301\u7eed\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u5728\u65e0\u9700\u8870\u9000\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5c31\u4f1a\u88ab\u538b\u7f29\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8fd8\u628a\u655e\u53e3\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u5de8\u5934\u80a1\u4e0a\u3002\u8fd9\u6539\u5584\u4e86\u8868\u9762\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f46\u96c6\u4e2d\u5316\u4e86\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5355\u4e00\u683d\u57f9\u770b\u4f3c\u9ad8\u6548\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u67d0\u79cd\u5bb3\u866b\u627e\u5230\u5f31\u70b9\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5bb3\u866b\u662f\u4e45\u671f\u3002\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u53d8\u5316 1% \u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u770b\u4f3c\u7a81\u7136\u4f46\u673a\u68b0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u672a\u6765\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n

\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u56de\u8d2d\u548c\u88ab\u52a8\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u6ed1\u843d\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7a81\u7136\u65ad\u88c2\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5b83\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u4e24\u8005\u3002\u88ab\u52a8\u5de5\u5177\u6309\u89c4\u5219\u800c\u975e\u5206\u6790\u4e70\u5165\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5e76\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u4ef7\u683c\u53d1\u73b0\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u79c1\u52df\u8d44\u4ea7\u5728\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5145\u88d5\u671f\u4eab\u53d7\u6309\u6a21\u578b\u8ba1\u4ef7\u7684\u5962\u4f88\u3002\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u662f\u5934\u6761\u5f0f\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u9700\u8981\u73b0\u91d1\u65f6\u624d\u663e\u73b0\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9519\u914d\u7684\u6162\u6027\u51fa\u8840\u3002\u8d8a\u662f\u4f18\u5316\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5197\u4f59\u8d8a\u5c11\u3002\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\u5728\u6837\u672c\u5916\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e4b\u524d\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u975e\u5e38\u806a\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d64\u5b57\u3001\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0e Federal Reserve \u7684\u4fe1\u8a89<\/h3>\n

Dimon \u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u62c5\u5fe7\u5e76\u4e0d\u5947\u7279\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7b97\u672f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u7684\u65b0\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u4e3a\u97e7\u6027\u800c\u975e\u6210\u672c\u91cd\u8def\u7531\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u52a8\u3002\u4ed6\u6566\u4fc3 Federal Reserve \u5728\u964d\u606f\u4e0a\u4fdd\u6301\u8010\u5fc3\u4ee5\u7ef4\u62a4\u4fe1\u8a89\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u671f\uff0c\u5bbd\u677e\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u7684\uff1b\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u671f\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u514b\u5236\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\u6bd4\u591a\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u70b9\u7684\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c Fed \u8fc7\u65e9\u9000\u7f29\u800c\u901a\u80c0\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u503a\u5e02\u5c06\u4ee5\u66f4\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u91cd\u5efa\u671f\u9650\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002\u90a3\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u610f\u5473\u7740\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u3001\u66f4\u7d27\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5373\u4fbf\u6ca1\u6709\u8870\u9000\u4e5f\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u500d\u6570\u6784\u6210\u4e0a\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6ede\u80c0\u662f\u4ed6\u62d2\u7edd\u4ece\u684c\u4e0a\u79fb\u8d70\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u300220 \u4e16\u7eaa 70 \u5e74\u4ee3\u6559\u4f1a\u6211\u4eec\uff1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u66f4\u6162\u7684\u589e\u957f\u957f\u671f\u5171\u5b58\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u79cd\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u7684 60\/40 \u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5931\u53bb\u5bf9\u51b2\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u503a\u5238\u65e0\u6cd5\u62b5\u6d88\u80a1\u7968\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u73b0\u91d1\u3001T-bills\u3001TIPS \u548c\u5b9e\u7269\u8d44\u4ea7\u6682\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u9632\u5b88\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u4fbf\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e5f\u4f9d\u8d56\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u4e0d\u662f\u53bb\u731c CPI \u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9884\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u7ade\u4e89\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u56da\u5f92\uff1a\u652f\u6301\u589e\u957f\u3001\u7ef4\u62a4\u7269\u4ef7\u3001\u4fdd\u969c\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u4e3a\u8d64\u5b57\u878d\u8d44\u3002\u7ea6\u675f\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u56de\u65cb\u4f59\u5730\u8d8a\u5c0f\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u7ea6\u675f\u7ed1\u5b9a\u4e4b\u524d\u5f88\u96be\u4e3a\u5176\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u8feb\u5356\u65b9<\/h3>\n

\u4fee\u6b63\u5f88\u5c11\u4ece\u4f60\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4ece\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u7684\u8584\u5f31\u7f1d\u9699\u6495\u88c2\u5f00\u59cb\u30022020 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u62a2\u5151\u5f0f\u629b\u552e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u6760\u6746\u73a9\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u64a4\u51fa\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5361\u58f3\u30022022 \u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u517b\u8001\u57fa\u91d1\u5371\u673a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u5f80\u770b\u4f3c\u8c28\u614e\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u9a71\u52a8\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5feb\u901f\u79fb\u52a8\u65f6\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u76ee\u6807\u57fa\u91d1\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u5e73\u4ef7\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u96f6\u65e5\u671f\u6743\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\u3002\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8df3\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f1a\u673a\u68b0\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u63a8\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002ETF \u627f\u8bfa\u65e5\u5185\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4f46\u6301\u6709\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6ca1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u8df3\u7a7a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4fee\u6b63\u7531\u901a\u80c0\u60ca\u614c\u89e6\u53d1\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u503a\u5238\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u90a3\u65f6\uff0c\u88ab\u8feb\u5356\u65b9\u4e0d\u662f\u6076\u68cd\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u7b56\u4fe1\u8a89\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u9677\u9631<\/h3>\n

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\u4e3a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u5236\u5ea6\u505a\u4ed3\u4f4d\u8c03\u6574<\/h3>\n

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