{"id":601827,"date":"2025-11-04T11:38:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T19:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=601827"},"modified":"2025-11-04T11:38:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T19:38:16","slug":"solomon-10-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2025\/11\/solomon-10-20\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9ad8\u76db\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98 Solomon \u9884\u671f\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc 10\u201320%\uff1b\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u9009\u80a1\u6001\u5ea6\u8c28\u614e"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u9ad8\u76db\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98 David Solomon \u8868\u793a\u672a\u6765 12 \u81f3 24 \u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0 10% \u81f3 20% \u7684\u56de\u8c03\u540e\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6765\u81ea\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u65b0\u8c28\u614e\u57fa\u8c03\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u8361\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u671f\u8d27\u76d8\u65e9\u76d8\u4e0b\u632b\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u671f\u8d27\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea6 0.75%\uff0cS&P 500 \u671f\u8d27\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea6 1.09%\uff0c\u7eb3\u6307 100 \u671f\u8d27\u4e0b\u8dcc 1.37%\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6743\u8861\u4eca\u5e74\u6301\u7eed\u6da8\u52bf\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u8d85\u51fa\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0cVIX \u4e0a\u5347\u3002Solomon \u5728\u4e0e Morgan Stanley \u7684 Ted Pick \u53ca Capital Group \u7684 Mike Gitlin \u4e00\u8d77\u51fa\u5e2d\u9999\u6e2f\u91d1\u878d\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u8896\u6295\u8d44\u5cf0\u4f1a\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5173\u4e8e\u672c\u8f6e\u5468\u671f\u662f\u5426\u7406\u5e94\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u8fdf\u6765\u7684\u91cd\u7f6e\u201d\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u52a0\u5267\u3002<\/p>\n

\u534e\u5c14\u8857CEO\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e0a\u91ca\u653e\u8c28\u614e\u4fe1\u53f7<\/h3>\n

Solomon \u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u76f4\u767d\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u672a\u6765 12 \u5230 24 \u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0 10% \u5230 20% \u7684\u56de\u8c03\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5468\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u624d\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5411\u3002Pick \u5219\u8868\u793a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e94\u4e3a\u8c03\u6574\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5e76\u6697\u793a\u5982\u679c\u56de\u8c03\u80fd\u51b7\u5374\u6295\u673a\u5e76\u91cd\u8bbe\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u4e24\u5bb6\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u6295\u884c\u638c\u8235\u8005\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5206\u91cf\u5341\u8db3\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u672a\u5bf9\u65f6\u70b9\u7ed9\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5f62\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u665a\u5468\u671f\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u8f83\u9ad8\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u88ab\u538b\u7f29\u3001\u5bb9\u9519\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n

\u671f\u8d27\u9707\u8361\u3001VIX \u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u68c0\u9a8c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4fe1\u606f<\/h3>\n

\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u77ed\u671f\u52a8\u8361\u8ba1\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u3002S&P 500 \u4e0e\u7eb3\u6307 100 \u671f\u8d27\u7684\u4e0b\u632b\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u80a1\u5e02\u5bf9\u8d85\u5927\u5e02\u503c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u548c\u957f\u5468\u671f\u6210\u957f\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff1a\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u4e14\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u6807\u7684\u901a\u5e38\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\u3002VIX \u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5bf9\u51b2\u6210\u672c\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u52a8\u6001\u5e38\u8feb\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u7b97\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5e73\u4ef7\u7b56\u7565\u8c03\u6574\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u73b0\u5728\u5c06\u89c2\u5bdf\u73b0\u8d27\u5356\u76d8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8ddf\u968f\u671f\u8d27\uff0c\u6216\u9022\u4f4e\u4e70\u76d8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u4ecb\u5165\u2014\u2014\u4eca\u5e74\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u591a\u6b21\u51cf\u7f13\u56de\u8c03\u3002\u76d8\u524d\u53d8\u52a8\u4e0e\u73b0\u91d1\u76d8\u6d41\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5224\u65ad\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b CEO \u8b66\u793a\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5de8\u5934\u79d1\u6280\u4f30\u503c\u88ab\u62c9\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u66f4\u5173\u952e<\/h3>\n

\u6f5c\u53f0\u8bcd\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5c11\u6570\u8d85\u5927\u5e02\u503c\u516c\u53f8\u63a8\u52a8\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u53d6\u5f97\u8d85\u989d\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5934\u6761\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u5747\u503c\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u591a\u5934\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7684\u7ffb\u7248\uff1a\u4e0e AI \u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8425\u6536\u3001\u4e91\u89c4\u6a21\u6548\u5e94\u53ca\u5f3a\u52b2\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u652f\u6301\u4e86 Microsoft\u3001Nvidia \u548c Alphabet \u7b49\u9886\u5148\u8005\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u7a7a\u5934\u5219\u53cd\u9a73\u79f0\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u4f18\u79c0\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u6216\u5229\u7387\u957f\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\u65f6\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u514d\u4e8e\u4f30\u503c\u538b\u7f29\u3002\u6307\u6570 10% \u81f3 20% \u7684\u56de\u64a4\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u91cd\u51fb\u4f30\u503c\u88ab\u62ac\u9ad8\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u6309 2026 \u4e0e 2027 \u5e74\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3001\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u201d\u7684\u6807\u7684\u3002\u4e89\u8bba\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u5229\u6da6\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f53\u5b8f\u89c2\u987a\u98ce\u6d88\u9000\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5229\u6da6\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b8f\u89c2\u60ac\u800c\u672a\u51b3\uff1aFed \u8def\u5f84\u3001\u589e\u957f\u6050\u614c\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u89e6\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\u4f9d\u65e7\u719f\u6089\u4e14\u672a\u89e3\u3002\u82e5 Federal Reserve \u4e3a\u5b8c\u6210\u901a\u80c0\u6cbb\u7406\u800c\u7ef4\u6301\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5c06\u4f7f\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u538b\u5236\u4f30\u503c\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u82e5\u589e\u957f\u6050\u614c\u8feb\u4f7f\u52a0\u901f\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u8870\u9000\u6982\u7387\u5e76\u6253\u538b\u5468\u671f\u6027\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u8d22\u653f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u9009\u4e3e\u5e74\u653f\u7b56\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u4e5f\u52a0\u5165\u6df7\u5408\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u590d\u82cf\u653e\u7f13\u4e0e\u5730\u4ea7\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u5728\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e2d\u5f98\u5f8a\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u6ce2\u52a8\u4ecd\u53ef\u91cd\u65b0\u5f15\u53d1\u901a\u80c0\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5747\u975e\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u665a\u671f\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed3\u4f4d\u62e5\u6324\u3001\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6536\u7f29\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66fe\u7ecf\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u7a81\u7136\u53d8\u5f97\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

10%\u201320% \u56de\u8c03\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u884c\u4e1a\u95f4\u4f20\u5bfc<\/h3>\n

\u82e5 Solomon \u6240\u8ff0\u56de\u64a4\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u9ad8\u8d1d\u5854\u79d1\u6280\u3001\u672a\u76c8\u5229\u6210\u957f\u4e0e\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6307\u6570\u906d\u9047\u66f4\u5927\u629b\u552e\u3002\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u677f\u5757\u5982\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u957f\u5468\u671f\u8f6f\u4ef6\u82e5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u7c98\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u627f\u538b\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u677f\u5757\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6446\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u66f4\u9661\u5ced\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\u6269\u5927\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u6d3b\u52a8\u653e\u7f13\u5219\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u76f8\u53cd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u7c7b\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u6297\u8dcc\u7684\u5962\u4f88\u54c1\u4e0e\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u4f4e\u7aef\u6d88\u8d39\u95f4\u5206\u5316\u3002\u82e5\u4f9b\u5e94\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\u652f\u6491\u6cb9\u4ef7\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u5757\u53ef\u76f8\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u8f83\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u666e\u904d\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0b\u4ea6\u96be\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u514d\u75ab\u3002\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u4e1a\u3001\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u7c7b\u7b49\u9632\u5fa1\u677f\u5757\u5728\u56de\u8c03\u4e2d\u76f8\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u901a\u5e38\u4f18\u4e8e\u5927\u76d8\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u98d9\u5347\u65f6\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u907f\u514d\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3001\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4e0e\u56de\u8d2d\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8<\/h3>\n

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