{"id":607249,"date":"2025-12-02T05:14:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T13:14:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=607249"},"modified":"2025-12-02T05:14:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T13:14:34","slug":"tsla-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2025\/12\/tsla-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5df4\u745e\u79f0\u7279\u65af\u62c9 TSLA \u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u85aa\u916c\u9634\u5f71\u8feb\u8fd1"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michael Burry \u518d\u6b21\u5bf9\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u53d1\u8868\u76f4\u7387\u8bba\u65ad\uff1a\u201c\u8352\u8c2c\u5730\u9ad8\u4f30\u201d\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u65b0\u7684 Substack \u5e16\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4d\u56e0\u770b\u7a7f 2008 \u5e74\u4f4f\u623f\u6ce1\u6cab\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u4ee5\u80a1\u7968\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7a00\u91ca\u80a1\u4e1c\u7ea6 3.6%\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u4e00\u9879\u62df\u8bae\u7684\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7ea7\u522b\u7684 Elon Musk \u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\u5c06\u52a0\u6df1\u8fd9\u4e00\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8be5\u80a1\u7684\u8fdc\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a 209 \u500d\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u8fd1\u4e94\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6 94 \u500d\u5e76\u8fdc\u8d85 S&P 500 \u7684 22 \u500d\uff0c\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u80a1\u4ef7\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u52a8\u6447\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u7ea6 430 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e74\u521d\u81f3\u4eca\u4e0a\u6da8\u7ea6 6.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4e3a\u610f\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6269\u5f20\u6210\u5e38\u6001<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5373\u65f6\u53cd\u5e94\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6ea2\u4ef7\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u5176\u57fa\u7840\u66f4\u591a\u7cfb\u4e8e\u5bf9\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u548c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u5b66\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u4ee5\u7ea6 209 \u500d\u7684\u8fdc\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u548c\u5e02\u503c\u8d85\u8fc7 1 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u662f\u5728\u4e3a\u5c1a\u672a\u5151\u73b0\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6743\u4e70\u5355\u3002Burry \u7684\u6000\u7591\u6070\u6070\u51fb\u4e2d\u6545\u4e8b\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u4e4b\u5904\uff1a\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u591a\u5934\u4f1a\u8fa9\u79f0\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u5e94\u83b7\u5f97\u7c7b\u4f3c AI \u7684\u500d\u6570\uff1b\u7a7a\u5934\u5219\u4f1a\u6307\u51fa\u5373\u4fbf\u662f Nvidia \u7684\u500d\u6570\u4e5f\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f9d\u6258\u4e8e\u6709\u5f62\u7684\u3001\u9ad8\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u8038\u80a9\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5f7b\u5e95\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7a00\u91ca\u4e0e\u85aa\u916c\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u7b97\u672f<\/h3>\n

Burry \u5bf9\u7a00\u91ca\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u66f4\u96be\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u4ee5\u80a1\u7968\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u5e74\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u5f53\u80a1\u4efd\u88ab\u53d1\u884c\u4e14\u672a\u88ab\u56de\u8d2d\u62b5\u6d88\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u6210\u4e3a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u8fd1 3.6% \u5e74\u5ea6\u7a00\u91ca\u7387\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u671f\u5f85\u957f\u671f\u590d\u5229\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e0e\u5e38\u89c4\u901a\u8fc7\u56de\u8d2d\u4e2d\u548c SBC \u7684\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u540c\u884c\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u907f\u514d\u56de\u8d2d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f9d\u8d56\u80a1\u7968\u6765\u652f\u4ed8\u548c\u7559\u4f4f\u4eba\u624d\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u9879\u4ee5\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u85aa\u916c\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u80a1\u6743\u86cb\u7cd5\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u7f29\u6c34\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u8be5\u8ba1\u5212\u4ee5\u671f\u6743\u5f62\u5f0f\u8fd8\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0e\u80a1\u6743\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5956\u52b1\u7ed3\u6784\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u679c\u76f8\u540c\uff1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u7d22\u53d6\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6709\u8d85\u5e38\u589e\u957f\u6216\u8f6c\u5411\u7531\u6301\u4e45\u81ea\u7531\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u56de\u8d2d\u6765\u62b5\u6d88\u3002<\/p>\n

\u591a\u5934\u8bba\u70b9\u7cfb\u4e8e\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u4eba<\/h3>\n

\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u548c Optimus \u4eba\u5f62\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4ece\u6f14\u793a\u8d70\u5411\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u5229\u6da6\u65f6\uff0c\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u7684\u9ad8\u500d\u6570\u624d\u6709\u9053\u7406\u3002\u591a\u5934\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f6f\u4ef6\u98de\u8f6e\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u8f66\u8f86\u8f66\u961f\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5e26\u6709\u62bd\u6210\u3001\u8ba2\u9605\u548c\u8bb8\u53ef\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u578b\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5d4c\u5165\u5728 209 \u500d\u8fdc\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u4e2d\u7684\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u4ecd\u53d7\u9650\u4e8e\u76d1\u7ba1\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002\u5546\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u90e8\u7f72\u9700\u8981\u8de8\u53f8\u6cd5\u533a\u7684\u6279\u51c6\u3001\u8f66\u961f\u6216\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u5165\u4ee5\u53ca\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u6846\u67b6\u3002Optimus \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u957f\u671f\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u53d8\u9769\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u5355\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5411\u524d\u770b\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u70b9\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u8981\u6c42\u6709\u660e\u7ec6\u3001\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u8be5\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ade\u4e89\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e0e\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u538b\u529b<\/h3>\n

Burry \u5bf9\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u7c89\u4e1d\u7fa4\u7684\u62a8\u51fb\u76f4\u622a\u4e86\u5f53\uff1a\u5fe0\u5b9e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d9\u4e8b\u62e5\u6324\u65f6\u4ece\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u4e3b\u5bfc\u8f6c\u5411\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u518d\u8f6c\u5411\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u3002\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5df2\u7ecf\u8feb\u4f7f\u964d\u4ef7\u5e76\u538b\u7f29\u6c7d\u8f66\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u7535\u6c60\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e0a\u5347\u548c incumbents \u4f18\u5316\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ec4\u5408\u5c31\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u9006\u98ce\u3002\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u4e00\u76f4\u4f9d\u9760\u8f6f\u4ef6\u9644\u52a0\u7387\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5b58\u50a8\u589e\u957f\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u6838\u5fc3\u6c7d\u8f66\u4e1a\u52a1\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f15\u64ce\u3002\u5982\u679c\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u6216\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u8ba1\u5212\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u77ed\u671f\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u56de\u5f52\u4e3a\u6c7d\u8f66\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u7a00\u91ca\u4f24\u5bb3\u6700\u6df1\u3001\u6ea2\u4ef7\u500d\u6570\u96be\u4ee5\u81ea\u5706\u5176\u8bf4\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002<\/p>\n

Burry \u5bf9 AI \u9ad8\u98de\u8005\u7684\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6000\u7591<\/h3>\n

\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u4e00\u6b21\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u62a8\u51fb\u3002Burry \u5df2\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217 AI \u76f8\u5173\u516c\u53f8\uff08\u5305\u62ec Nvidia \u548c Palantir\uff09\u5728\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5904\u7406\u548c\u4f30\u503c\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u6fc0\u8fdb\u503e\u5411\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u89c2\u70b9\u662f GAAP \u62a5\u8868\u5e38\u88ab\u7ecf\u8c03\u6574\u6307\u6807\u7f8e\u5316\uff0c\u800c SBC \u9ed8\u9ed8\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u76ca\u4ece\u80a1\u4e1c\u8f6c\u5411\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u7528\u80a1\u6743\u652f\u4ed8\u5458\u5de5\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u72ec\u6709\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u56de\u8d2d\u6765\u7f13\u51b2\u5f71\u54cd\u4f7f\u5176\u7a81\u51fa\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ef7\u503c\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec4\u5408\u5728\u914d\u4ee5\u4e09\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u516c\u53f8\u5386\u53f2\u4e00\u5207\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684 CEO \u85aa\u916c\u8ba1\u5212\u65f6\uff0c\u6781\u5177\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u5fc5\u987b\u8bc1\u660e\u4ec0\u4e48\u624d\u80fd\u4f7f\u85aa\u916c\u5408\u7406\u5316<\/h3>\n

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Michael Burry \u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u56e0\u80a1\u7968\u578b\u85aa\u916c\u7a00\u91ca\u80a1\u4e1c\u5229\u76ca\u53ca\u57c3\u9686\u00b7\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u62df\u8bae\u7684 1 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\uff0cTesla \u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u5f53\u524d\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e0e\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u672a\u6765\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u56e0\u6b64\u4e89\u8bba\u516c\u53f8\u6ea2\u4ef7\u4f30\u503c\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\u53ca\u9700\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f55\u79cd\u8bc1\u636e\u6765\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":587492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[427],"tags":[2387,2367,741],"class_list":["post-607249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news-zh-hans","tag-ai-sch","tag-2367","tag-741"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/48"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=607249"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607249\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":607273,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607249\/revisions\/607273"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/587492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=607249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=607249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=607249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}