{"id":618080,"date":"2026-01-30T09:33:51","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T17:33:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=618080"},"modified":"2026-01-30T09:33:51","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T17:33:51","slug":"kevin-warsh-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2026\/01\/kevin-warsh-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62df\u63d0\u540dKevin Warsh\u4efbFed\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edfDonald Trump\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u5c06\u4e8e\u5468\u4e94\u4e0a\u5348\u516c\u5e03\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9009\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u73b0\u5728\u660e\u786e\u6307\u5411Kevin Warsh\u3002\u8fd9\u4f4d\u524dFed\u7406\u4e8b\u5728\u4e00\u5468\u5185\u8d54\u7387\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u540e\u6210\u4e3a\u9886\u5148\u4eba\u9009\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5728\u8861\u91cf\u7531Warsh\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684Fed\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u964d\u606f\u548c\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u51c6\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u3002\u968f\u7740Jerome Powell\u4efb\u671f\u5c06\u4e8e\u4e94\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u767d\u5bab\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u548c\u65b0\u5173\u7a0e\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u50ac\u4fc3\u66f4\u5feb\u653e\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5229\u5bb3\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\u90fd\u53d8\u5f97\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u66f4\u5feb\u8f6c\u5411<\/h3>\n

\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u5728\u516c\u5e03\u7a97\u53e3\u5185\u52a8\u6447\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u6307\u671f\u8d27\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0cS&P 500 (SPX) \u5408\u7ea6\u7ea6\u4e0b\u8dcc0.8%\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570 (DJIA) \u671f\u8d27\u4e0b\u8dcc0.7%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65e9\u76d8\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u5bf9\u575a\u633a\u2014\u2014DAX \u4e0a\u6da8\u7ea60.8%\uff0cCAC 40 \u4e0a\u6da80.4%\uff0cFTSE 100 \u9886\u51480.2%\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u65f6\u6bb5\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u6052\u751f\u6307\u6570\u4e0b\u6ed12.1%\uff0c\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e0b\u8dcc1%\uff0c\u4e1c\u4eac\u65e5\u7ecf\u5fae\u8dcc0.1%\u3002\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u843d\uff1a\u77f3\u6cb9\u56de\u5410\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5468\u56db\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea65%\uff0c\u767d\u94f6\u5728\u672c\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u6025\u6da8\u540e\u66b4\u8dcc11%\u3002\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5bf9\u65e5\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u6b27\u5143\u5c0f\u5e45\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6df7\u5408\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5728\u540c\u65f6\u6d88\u5316\u4e24\u79cd\u53d9\u4e8b\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u8def\u5f84\u4e0e\u5bf9Powell\u5ba1\u614e\u8282\u594f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u65ad\u88c2\u9884\u671f\u3002\u90a3\u79cd\u98a4\u52a8\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u8bd5\u56fe\u8d34\u73b0\u4e00\u4f4d\u53ef\u80fd\u6279\u51c6\u66f4\u5feb\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8981\u7ba1\u7406\u4e00\u4e2a\u9762\u5bf9\u9ad8\u7269\u4ef7\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh\u4ece\u9e70\u6d3e\u5230\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u8005\u7684\u6f14\u53d8<\/h3>\n

Warsh \u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4f7f\u89e3\u8bfb\u53d8\u5f97\u590d\u6742\u3002\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f2006\u20132011\u5e74Fed\u7684\u8d44\u6df1\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u66fe\u6279\u8bc4\u5371\u673a\u540e\u8d85\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5e76\u53cd\u5bf9\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u73b0\u5728\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0e\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u5173\u7a0e\u5f15\u53d1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u62a4\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6c\u5411\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u9e70\u6d3e\u51fa\u8eab\u5230\u52a1\u5b9e\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u2014\u2014\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u672a\u6765\u516d\u5230\u5341\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6708\u6784\u5efa\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u524d\u671f\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u4f9b\u5229\u7387\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u6269\u5f20\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u9884\u671f\u800c\u53d8\u9661\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u63a5\u53d7\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u7bb1\uff0c\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u538b\u7f29\u671f\u9650\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5e76\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u672c\u63a8\u56de\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u4e0d\u8bba\u54ea\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4efb\u547d\u90fd\u5c06\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5bf9Powell\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u548cFed\u8fd1\u671f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ee5\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u8010\u5fc3\u7684\u504f\u79bb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u5e45\u503e\u5411Warsh<\/h3>\n

\u8d54\u7387\u5728\u516c\u5f00\u89c6\u91ce\u4e2d\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u5c31\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5341\u4e8c\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u5728\u7ebf\u535a\u5f69\u5e73\u53f0\u8fd8\u5927\u5e45\u503e\u5411\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4efbKevin Hassett\u6210\u4e3aPowell\u7684\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u5e73\u53f0\u663e\u793a\u4ed6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5cf0\u503c\u63a5\u8fd184%\u3002\u8fdb\u5165\u672c\u5468\u524d\uff0cBlackRock\u9ad8\u7ba1Rick Rieder\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u662f\u70ed\u95e8\u4eba\u9009\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a\u629b\u786c\u5e01\u5f0f\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0cWarsh\u5219\u843d\u540e\u572820\u591a%\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u60c5\u51b5\u8fc5\u901f\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u968f\u7740Trump\u786e\u8ba4\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5408\u7ea6\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0cWarsh\u8dc3\u5c45\u9886\u5148\uff0cHassett\u7684\u8d54\u7387\u6ca6\u4e3a\u7ea61%\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6570\u5b57\uff0cRieder\u4e5f\u9010\u6e10\u9000\u6f6e\u3002\u5bf9\u673a\u6784\u4ea4\u6613\u53f0\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u56f4\u7ed5\u5ba1\u67e5\u3001\u8bd5\u63a2\u6027\u8bd5\u63a2\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u589e\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u6d41\u3002\u5f53\u6210\u4ea4\u5e26\u50cf\u6b64\u6b21\u90a3\u6837\u6025\u5267\u79fb\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u51c6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3001\u533a\u57df\u6027\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u5e02\u503c\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u677f\u5757\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u6700\u6613\u53d7\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u5047\u8bbe\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n

Fed\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7<\/h3>\n

\u5934\u6761\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5bf9Fed\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002Trump\u4e0ePowell\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u51b2\u7a81\u4ee5\u53ca\u6301\u7eed\u547c\u5401\u66f4\u5feb\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8feb\u4f7f\u56fd\u503a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e2d\u5d4c\u5165\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u63d0\u540dWarsh\u5c06\u52a0\u5267\u8fd9\u573a\u8fa9\u8bba\uff1a\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u56de\u5e94\u767d\u5bab\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u83b7\u4efb\u547d\u65b0\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f1a\u91cd\u7533\u592e\u884c\u81ea\u4e3b\uff1f\u4e8c\u8005\u5dee\u5f02\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u4fe1\u53f7\u4f1a\u538b\u7f29\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3001\u589e\u5f3a\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u5e76\u951a\u5b9a\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u3002\u88ab\u611f\u77e5\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u503e\u659c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u76f8\u53cd\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f1a\u56e0\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u800c\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u9ad8\u8865\u507f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6096\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u4f4e\u4f46\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\u2014\u2014\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4f55\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u5143\u5bf9\u65e5\u5143\u548c\u6b27\u5143\u5448\u73b0\u5206\u88c2\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e3a\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u5b9a\u4e0b\u57fa\u8c03\uff1a\u786e\u8ba4\u7a0b\u5e8f\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u95e8\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u65bd\u538bFed\u7684\u516c\u6295\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u964d\u606f\u63d0\u901f\u7684\u677f\u5757\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

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Warsh\u653f\u7b56\u84dd\u56fe\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4f18\u5148\u9879<\/h3>\n

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