{"id":618299,"date":"2026-02-02T03:24:41","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T11:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=618299"},"modified":"2026-02-02T03:24:41","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T11:24:41","slug":"gld-slv-gdx-warsh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2026\/02\/gld-slv-gdx-warsh\/","title":{"rendered":"\u91d1\u5c5e\u629b\u552e\u51b2\u51fb GLD\u3001SLV\u3001GDX\uff0cWarsh \u51b2\u51fb\u5f15\u53d1\u9707\u8361"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7099\u624b\u53ef\u70ed\u7684\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ea4\u6613\u521a\u906d\u9047\u9996\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5d29\u76d8\u8003\u9a8c\u3002\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u5355\u65e5\u4e0b\u632b 9% \u81f3\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f8 4,901 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u767d\u94f6\u5355\u65e5\u66b4\u8dcc 31.4%\uff0c\u62b9\u53bb\u6570\u5468\u7684\u6295\u673a\u6027\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u77ff\u4e1a\u80a1\u4ece Newmont \u5230 Barrick \u906d\u5230\u91cd\u521b\u3002\u5bfc\u706b\u7d22\u662f\u603b\u7edf Donald Trump \u610f\u5916\u63d0\u540d Kevin Warsh \u51fa\u4efb Federal Reserve \u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e3e\u63aa\u9707\u52a8\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06 YOLO \u7fa4\u4f53\u9752\u7750\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u63a8\u5165\u65e0\u5e8f\u629b\u552e\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh \u63d0\u540d\u98a0\u8986\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ea4\u6613<\/h3>\n

Warsh \u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u843d\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u7ecf\u51c6\u5907\u56de\u8c03\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u3002\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u52a8\u80fd\u5df2\u88ab\u62c9\u4f38\uff0c\u4ed3\u4f4d\u62e5\u6324\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6563\u6237\u8ffd\u9010 GLD\u3001SLV \u548c\u4ee5\u77ff\u4e1a\u80a1\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684 GDX\uff0cETF \u6d41\u5165\u6fc0\u589e\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u65e6\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u7ffb\u8f6c\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7a81\u7136\u5f00\u59cb\u8ba1\u4ef7\u4e0d\u540c\u7684 Fed \u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u66f4\u5feb\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u524d\u666f\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u907f\u9669\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u8be5\u8f6c\u53d8\u5728\u671f\u8d27\u548c\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\u4f20\u5bfc\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u98d9\u5347\u3001\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u53d8\u8584\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u88ab\u8feb\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u3002\u9ec4\u91d1 9% \u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u662f\u81ea 1980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9661\u5355\u65e5\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u800c\u767d\u94f6 31% \u7684\u5d29\u76d8\u8ba9\u6280\u672f\u6d3e\u4e89\u8bba\u8fd9\u662f\u9876\u90e8\u6563\u53d1\u3001\u4fdd\u8bc1\u91d1\u88ab\u8feb\u5e73\u4ed3\u7684\u6295\u964d\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u517c\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n

\u77ff\u4e1a\u80a1\u906d\u91cd\u521b\uff1aNEM\u3001GOLD\u3001AEM \u9886\u8dcc<\/h3>\n

\u4e0e\u91d1\u5c5e\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\u3002Newmont (NEM) \u4e0b\u8dcc 11.5%\uff0cBarrick (GOLD) \u5728\u903e 3,100 \u4e07\u80a1\u7684\u9ad8\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u4e0b\u8dcc 19%\uff0cAgnico Eagle (AEM) \u4e0b\u8dcc 10.8%\uff0c\u5176\u5e02\u503c\u63a5\u8fd1 956 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u629b\u552e\u6269\u6563\u5230 ETF\uff0cGDX \u548c GDXJ \u5728\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u51fa\u4e0e\u5bf9\u51b2\u653e\u5927\u4e0b\u627f\u538b\u3002\u9ad8\u8d1d\u5854\u7684\u521d\u7ea7\u77ff\u5546\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd9\u63d0\u9192\u4eba\u4eec\uff1a\u5f53\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u8425\u6760\u6746\u540c\u6837\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u4e0b\u884c\u3002\u6210\u672c\u66f2\u7ebf\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5b9e\u529b\u518d\u6b21\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u5168\u6210\u672c\u7ef4\u6301\u8f83\u9ad8\u3001\u5bf9\u51b2\u8584\u5f31\u6216\u6fc0\u8fdb\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u53d7\u5230\u60e9\u7f5a\uff0c\u800c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u66f4\u5e72\u51c0\u3001\u4e1a\u52a1\u66f4\u5206\u6563\u7684\u5927\u578b\u77ff\u5546\u76f8\u5bf9\u6297\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6563\u6237\u70ed\u6f6e\u9047\u4e0a\u5b8f\u89c2\u97ad\u7b1e<\/h3>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u5b9e\u68c0\u9a8c\u6070\u9022\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6d8c\u5165\u8be5\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u91d1\u5c5e\u4e0e\u77ff\u4e1a\u7684\u671f\u6743\u6d3b\u52a8\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u7ecf\u7eaa\u5546\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u5927\u76d8\u77ff\u4e1a\u80a1\u7684\u6563\u6237\u4e70\u5165\u504f\u659c\u5347\u81f3\u6570\u6708\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u4f20\u64ad\u903b\u8f91\u7b80\u5355\u4e14\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f0f\uff1a\u53bb\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3001\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u4e0e\u9ecf\u6027\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u4f7f\u5b9e\u7269\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u7136\u540e\u653f\u7b56\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u77ac\u95f4\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u4f4e\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u6784\u6210\u5229\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5468\u4e94\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u9762\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u4fe1 Warsh \u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684 Fed \u66f4\u504f\u5411\u589e\u957f\u53cb\u597d\u53ca\u957f\u671f\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u6760\u6746\u591a\u5934\u4f1a\u88ab\u8ffd\u7f34\u4fdd\u8bc1\u91d1\u3002\u62e5\u6324\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5f88\u5c11\u4f1a\u6e29\u548c\u89e3\u5f00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u94dc\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u97e7\u6027\u53d1\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u4fe1\u53f7<\/h3>\n

\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u91d1\u5c5e\u5bf9\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u76f8\u540c\u30023 \u6708\u4ea4\u5272\u7684\u94dc\u6536\u4e8e\u6bcf\u78c5 5.92 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5f53\u65e5\u4e0b\u8dcc 4.5%\uff0c\u4f46\u5e74\u521d\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u4e0a\u6da8\u903e 4%\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u52bf\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5206\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e\u5b9e\u4f53\u6d3b\u52a8\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u91d1\u5c5e\u53d7\u5230\u7535\u7f51\u3001AI \u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u800c\u50cf\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u767d\u94f6\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u51b2\u66f4\u6613\u53d7\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002J.P. Morgan \u5c06\u77ff\u4e1a\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3 overweight\uff08\u589e\u6301\uff09\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u523a\u6fc0\u548c\u66f4\u7d27\u7684\u94dc\u4f9b\u9700\u5c06\u662f\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u3002\u5982\u679c\u94dc\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0a\u884c\u8d8b\u52bf\u800c\u9ec4\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5f00\u59cb\u533a\u5206\u5177\u6709\u94dc\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u77ff\u5546\u4e0e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u8d1d\u5854\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh \u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684 Fed \u5bf9\u91d1\u5c5e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h3>\n

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\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u3001\u88ab\u8feb\u5356\u51fa\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784<\/h3>\n

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