{"id":667932,"date":"2026-10-08T05:58:04","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T12:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=667932"},"modified":"2026-10-08T05:58:04","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T12:58:04","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%ad%bb%e7%a3%95%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e7%9a%84%e9%9d%a2%e5%ad%90%e4%b9%9f%e4%b8%8d%e5%a5%bd%e4%bd%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/2026\/10\/%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%ad%bb%e7%a3%95%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e7%9a%84%e9%9d%a2%e5%ad%90%e4%b9%9f%e4%b8%8d%e5%a5%bd%e4%bd%bf\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6b7b\u78d5\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9762\u5b50\u4e5f\u4e0d\u597d\u4f7f"},"content":{"rendered":"

2026 \u5e74\u5bf9\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u8f7d\u5165\u53f2\u518c\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570\u3001\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u8f6e\u756a\u5237\u65b0\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0cKevin Warsh \u4e8e 5 \u6708 22 \u65e5\u5ba3\u8a93\u5c31\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7b2c 17 \u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u6539\u5199\u5e02\u573a\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u662f 9 \u6708 16 \u65e5 Warsh \u4e0e FOMC \u5171\u540c\u542f\u52a8\u7684 21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f \u2014\u2014 \u8fd9\u573a\u7d27\u7f29\u8def\u5f84\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u8fd8\u7ad9\u7740\u4e00\u4f4d\u6301\u7eed\u65bd\u538b\u7684\u767d\u5bab\u4e3b\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7968\u52a0\u606f 25 \u57fa\u70b9\uff0c21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u7d27\u7f29\u5468\u671f\u5f00\u542f<\/h2>\n

9 \u6708 16 \u65e5\uff0cFOMC \u4ee5 12 \u7968\u8d5e\u6210\u30010 \u7968\u53cd\u5bf9\u7684\u5168\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u76ee\u6807\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c03 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f3 3.75%\u20134.00%\u3002\u8fd9\u662f 21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u542f\u52a8\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f2023 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh \u5728\u4f1a\u540e\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5c06\u6b64\u6b21\u884c\u52a8\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a “removed a dose of accommodation”\uff08\u79fb\u9664\u4e00\u5242\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u3002\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u63aa\u8f9e\u5f3a\u70c8\u6697\u793a\u672c\u8f6e\u52a0\u606f\u5e76\u975e “\u4e00\u9524\u5b50\u4e70\u5356”\u2014\u2014 \u6b63\u5982\u5355\u5242\u836f\u7269\u53ea\u80fd\u6682\u65f6\u7f13\u89e3\u5934\u75db\u3001\u9000\u70e7\u9700\u591a\u5242\u7597\u7a0b\uff0cWarsh \u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a “\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u8fc7\u4e45”\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9700\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u79fb\u9664\u5bbd\u677e\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6574\u4f53\u7a33\u5065\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u672c\u6b21\u53ca\u540e\u7eed\u52a0\u606f “\u5c06\u652f\u6301\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u53ca\u65f6\u5730\u56de\u5f52\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a 2% \u76ee\u6807”\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u558a\u8bdd\u964d\u606f\u81f3 1%\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0 9 \u4e2a\u5b57\u95f4\u63a5\u56de\u51fb<\/h2>\n

2025 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u5f00\u542f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6301\u7eed\u516c\u5f00\u6279\u8bc4\u65f6\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u53ca FOMC \u964d\u606f\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u591f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1 2024 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u81f3 2025 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u95f4 FOMC \u5df2\u7d2f\u8ba1\u964d\u606f 6 \u6b21\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ecd\u4e3b\u5f20\u5229\u7387\u5e94\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 1% \u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5f88\u76f4\u767d\uff1a\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u65e2\u80fd\u523a\u6fc0\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6838\u5fc3\u50ac\u5316\u5242 \u2014\u2014AI \u57fa\u5efa\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u62db\u8058\u4e0e\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u538b\u4f4e\u5df2\u5728 8 \u6708\u7a81\u7834 40 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5 \u2014\u2014 \u82e5\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u523a\u773c\u3002<\/p>\n

9 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0cABC \u65b0\u95fb\u8bb0\u8005 Elizabeth Schulsh \u5728\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u76f4\u63a5\u63d0\u95ee Warsh\uff1a\u5bf9\u53cd\u590d\u547c\u5401\u964d\u606f\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u6709\u4f55\u8bdd\u8981\u8bf4\uff1fWarsh \u7684\u56de\u5e94\u4e0d\u7559\u4f59\u5730\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u8865\u5145\u7684\u2026\u2026 \u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u662f\u5c65\u884c\u56fd\u4f1a\u8d4b\u4e88\u6211\u4eec\u7a33\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u804c\u8d23\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002”<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d “The decision we made today was the right decision”\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff09\u8fd9\u4e5d\u4e2a\u5b57\uff0c\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u5bf9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6301\u7eed\u5229\u7387\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u95f4\u63a5\u56de\u51fb\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5219\u5728 9 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\u4ee5\u5fae\u5999\u65b9\u5f0f\u65bd\u538b Warsh\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u5176\u5728\u6b64\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u4e0a “\u4e0e\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u8d77”\uff0c\u79f0\u6b64\u4e8b “\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd”\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u4ecd\u5bf9 Warsh \u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u77db\u5934\u6307\u5411\u4e86\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u653e\u9e70\uff1a\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u5927\u6982\u7387\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u62bc\u6ce8 12 \u6708<\/h2>\n

9 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u4e8e\u672c\u5468\u4e09\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u786e\u8ba4\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff1a\u201c\u591a\u6570\u4e0e\u4f1a\u8005\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u518d\u4e0a\u8c03\u4e00\u6b21\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u9002\u7684\u3002”\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u4e5f\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u4f59\u5730\uff0c\u79f0\u5c06\u4ee5\u5f00\u653e\u5fc3\u6001\u5bf9\u5f85\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51b3\u7b56\u5c06\u57fa\u4e8e\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7eaa\u8981\u516c\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5df2\u53d1\u751f\u660e\u663e\u4f4d\u79fb\u30029 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\u521a\u843d\u5730\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66fe\u62bc\u6ce8 10 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u4f1a\u8bae\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 51%\u3002\u4f46 8 \u6708 PCE \u6307\u6570\uff08\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9996\u9009\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u30019 \u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u51e0\u4e4e\u96f6\u589e\u957f\u540e\uff0cCME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\u663e\u793a 10 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u5df2\u9aa4\u964d\u81f3 18%\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8f6c\u800c\u62bc\u6ce8 12 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1 12 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\u5229\u7387\u8fbe\u5230 4.00%\u20134.25% \u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a 80%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u524d\u77bb\u6765\u770b\uff0c10 \u6708 CPI \u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u662f 10 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4efd\u5173\u952e\u6570\u636e\uff1b\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52bf\u4ecd\u662f\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u624b\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f53\u524d\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u52a0\u606f\u5ef6\u7eed\u81f3 2027 \u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u5f31\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u75b2\u8f6f\uff08\u6c83\u5c14\u739b\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u540c\u5e97\u9500\u552e\u521b\u516d\u5e74\u6700\u5dee\uff09\u6216\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u5b8c\u5168\u91cd\u5f00\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6cb9\u4ef7\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u901a\u80c0\u8def\u5f84\u8131\u79bb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9884\u8bbe\u8f68\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2026 \u5e74\u5bf9\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u8f7d\u5165\u53f2\u518c\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570\u3001\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u8f6e\u756a\u5237\u65b0\u5386\u53f2 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":548691,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[430],"tags":[2164,2247,2161,522],"class_list":["post-667932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trends-strategies-zh-hans","tag-2164","tag-2247","tag-2161","tag-522","sectors-financial-products-zh-hans","locations-us-zh-hans"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=667932"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667932\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":667935,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667932\/revisions\/667935"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=667932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=667932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=667932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}