{"id":206184,"date":"2018-01-10T21:30:07","date_gmt":"2018-01-11T05:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2018\/01\/chinese-caution-u-s-debt-clouds-financing-trumps-tax-cut\/"},"modified":"2018-01-10T21:44:24","modified_gmt":"2018-01-11T05:44:24","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e6%88%96%e5%81%9c%e6%ad%a2%e8%b3%bc%e8%b2%b7%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%9c%8b%e5%82%b5-%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e8%b3%87%e6%9c%ac%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e9%a2%a8%e8%81%b2%e9%b6%b4%e5%94%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2018\/01\/%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e6%88%96%e5%81%9c%e6%ad%a2%e8%b3%bc%e8%b2%b7%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%9c%8b%e5%82%b5-%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e8%b3%87%e6%9c%ac%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e9%a2%a8%e8%81%b2%e9%b6%b4%e5%94%b3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u570b\u6216\u505c\u6b62\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5 \u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u672c\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u8072\u9db4\u5533"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u64da\u5f6d\u535a\u65b0\u805e\u793e\u9031\u4e09\u5831\u9053\uff0c\u8a55\u4f30\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u7d1a\u5b98\u54e1\u5efa\u8b70\u653e\u7de9\u6216\u505c\u6b62\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4ee4\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u8072\u9db4\u5533\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u9031\u4e09\u5927\u6f323\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f32.58%\uff0c\u5275\u8fd1\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u6b63\u5728\u7a4d\u6975\u70ba\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7a05\u6539\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5c0b\u6c42\u8cc7\u91d1\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u614b\u5ea6\u8f49\u8b8a\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u5176\u878d\u8cc7\u7684\u96e3\u5ea6\u52a0\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

Jefferies\u8cc7\u6df1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Thomas Simons\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u5982\u679c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e2d\u570b\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5de8\u984d\u8d64\u5b57\u878d\u8cc7\u7684\u96e3\u5ea6\u5c07\u6975\u5927\u3002\u201dSimons\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6e1b\u7a05\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7e2e\u8868\u5c07\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e82018\u5e74\u7684\u878d\u8cc7\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u534770%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u6301\u6709\u7d041.2\u842c\u5104\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u64da\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u5831\u9053\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5b98\u54e1\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u76f8\u6bd4\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u5169\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u7dca\u5f35\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e5f\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u7406\u7531\u653e\u7de9\u751a\u81f3\u505c\u6b62\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66fe\u5728\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u7e3d\u7d71\u4efb\u671f\u5167\u64d4\u4efb\u8ca0\u8cac\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u9577\u3001PGIM Fixed Income\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Nathan Sheets\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u6df1\u9677\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7dad\u6301\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\u61c9\u7b26\u5408\u5176\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

Sheets\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4f5c\u70ba\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6d77\u5916\u6301\u6709\u570b\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e26\u6709\u640d\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u8209\u52d5\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u6d77\u5916\u7684\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u5f37\u52c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u4e00\u4f4d\u9ad8\u7d1a\u5b98\u54e1\u6b64\u524d\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u7a31\u7576\u524d14.5\u842c\u5104\u7684\u7f8e\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u4ecd\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u4e3b\u7ba1\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u7684\u526f\u90e8\u9577David Malpass\u9031\u4e09\u5728\u5e03\u9b6f\u585e\u723e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5177\u6df1\u5ea6\u548c\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u5f37\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5f37\u52c1\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1John Kennedy\u9031\u4e09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u5ee3\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u610f\u51fa\u624b\uff0c\u99ac\u4e0a\u5c31\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u63a5\u76e4\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u5c0d\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u898f\u6a21\u6975\u5927\uff0c\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u8207\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u9032\u884c\u8cbf\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u8ac7\u5224\u6642\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7c4c\u78bc\u3002<\/p>\n

Simons\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u505c\u6b62\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9084\u662f\u6703\u8499\u53d7\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u6d77\u5916\u570b\u5bb6\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6295\u8cc7\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u7c4c\u78bc\u5c31\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u5c07\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u53bb\u5c0b\u627e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u8cb7\u5bb6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u901a\u904e\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u8fd1\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u9810\u8a08\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u5c07\u6e1b\u5c111.5\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n

\u96d6\u7136\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u54e1\u548c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u570b\u6703\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u6b64\u524d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7a05\u6539\u5c07\u63d0\u632f\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u7a05\u6536\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u64da\u5b98\u65b9\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u9593\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5c07\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u8d85\u904e1\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u6642\u671f\u7684\u767d\u5bae\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Jared Bernstein\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u570b\u50b5\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u5f15\u767c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u653e\u7de9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5011\u9084\u5728\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7684\u7e2e\u8868\u9032\u5c55\u3002\u5b98\u65b9\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7e2e\u8868\u904e\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u4e0d\u592a\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u6240\u89ba\u5bdf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u95dc\u4fc2\u5354\u6703\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u5c08\u5bb6Brad W. Setser\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6b64\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u592a\u770b\u597d\u4e2d\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u5927\u91cf\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u50b5\u3002\u201c\u6700\u5408\u7406\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5e0c\u671b\u501f\u6b64\u5f15\u8d77\u5e02\u5834\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u616e\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u70ba\u5f37\u786c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5eb7\u5948\u723e\u5927\u5b78\u4e2d\u570b\u554f\u984c\u5c08\u5bb6Eswar Prasad\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6b64\u8209\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5c0d\u4f86\u81ea\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6575\u610f\u767c\u51fa\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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