{"id":220257,"date":"2018-04-30T22:43:01","date_gmt":"2018-05-01T05:43:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=220257"},"modified":"2018-05-01T04:39:21","modified_gmt":"2018-05-01T11:39:21","slug":"oil-at-75-five-factors-driving-the-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2018\/04\/oil-at-75-five-factors-driving-the-price\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e03\u6cb975\u7f8e\u5143\uff01\u523a\u6fc0\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u56e0\u7d20"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u502b\u6566\u5e03\u502b\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u56db\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u6f32\u81f375\u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\uff0c\u9a45\u52d5\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\uff1f\u4e0b\u9762\u4e86\u5217\u51fa\u4e94\u5927\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>1.<\/strong><strong>\u4f9b\u9700\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u904e\u53bb18\u500b\u6708\u671f\u9593\u5e02\u5834\u660e\u986f\u6536\u7dca\u3002\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8208\u65fa\u5c0e\u81f4\u9700\u6c42\u65fa\u76db\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u548c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7684\u806f\u5408\u51cf\u7523\u884c\u52d5\uff0c2014\u81f32016\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u7d2f\u7a4d\u7684\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u904e\u5269\u8fc5\u901f\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u570b\u969b\u80fd\u6e90\u7f72\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u5f88\u5feb\u5c07\u5ba3\u5e03\u9054\u6210\u5c07\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u539f\u6cb9\u5eab\u5b58\u964d\u81f3\u4e94\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u9700\u6c42\u6fc0\u589e\u8d85\u904e500\u842c\u6876\/\u5929\uff0c\u589e\u5e455%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u6d88\u8cbb\u91cf\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u9996\u6b21\u7a81\u78341\u5104\u6876\/\u5929\u3002 Petromatrix\u7684Olivier Jakob\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6cb9\u5e02\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u6975\u7aef\u7dca\u5f35\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u904e\u5269\u6d88\u9664\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u5fa9\u8607\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u719f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2.<\/strong><strong>\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u8207\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u81ea2017\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u4f86\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u8207\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7b49\u7523\u6cb9\u570b\u806f\u624b\u51cf\u7523\u81f3\u5c11180\u842c\u6876\/\u5929\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u539f\u6cb9\u964d\u81f3\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5be6\u73fe\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u6703\u7d50\u675f\u51cf\u7523\u5354\u8b70\u55ce\uff1f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u7d66\u51fa\u4e86\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u8868\u9054\u4e86\u8f03\u591a\u95dc\u4e8e\u6cb9\u50f9\u9ad8\u4e8e70\u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u7a31\u53ef\u80fd\u523a\u6fc0\u7f8e\u570b\u8449\u5ca9\u6cb9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u5340\u7684\u7523\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8207\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u76f8\u8655\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u9818\u982d\u7f8a\u2014\u2014\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u5df2\u7d93\u6697\u793a\u9084\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u5de5\u4f5c\u8981\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c99\u7279\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u9577\u6cd5\u5229\u8d6b\u7a31\u9700\u8981\u523a\u6fc0\u5c0d\u65b0\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u8a08\u5283IPO\u7684\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u7f8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u5c07\u5f9e\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u9084\u9700\u8981\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u7684\u652f\u6491\u4f86\u63a8\u884c\u5168\u9762\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u3002Petroleum Policy Intelligence\u7684Bill Farren-Price\u7a31\uff0c\u6b50\u4f69\u514b\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u60f3\u8981\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u201c\u5239\u8eca\u201d\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u4ed6\u8aaa\u9053\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6c99\u7279\u6709\u591a\u500b\u7406\u7531\u5e0c\u671b\u6cb9\u50f9\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u963f\u7f8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684IPO\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6c99\u7279\u4e5f\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u8ca1\u653f\u6536\u5165\u4f86\u63a8\u884c\u6539\u9769\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3.<\/strong><strong>\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6cb9\u5e02\u4e00\u76f4\u5bc6\u5207\u95dc\u6ce8\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u4f9b\u9700\u5e73\u8861\u72c0\u614b\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u539f\u672c\u76f8\u5c0d\u7dca\u5f35\u7684\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u65b7\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c07\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u52a0\u653e\u5927\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\u3002\u6700\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u9000\u51fa\u4f0a\u6717\u6838\u5354\u8b70\u5e77\u91cd\u65b0\u5c0d\u4f0a\u6717\u77f3\u6cb9\u51fa\u53e3\u5be6\u65bd\u5236\u88c1\u3002\u4ed6\u5c07\u4e8e\u4e0b\u6708\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u6cd5\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u99ac\u514b\u9f8d\u4e0a\u5468\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u7f8e\u570b\u5c07\u9019\u9ebd\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u59d4\u5167\u745e\u62c9\u3002\u53d7\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u6a5f\u62d6\u7d2f\uff0c\u59d4\u5167\u745e\u62c9\u539f\u6cb9\u7523\u91cf\u5df2\u7d93\u51cf\u5c11\u81f3\u5c11500,000\u6876\/\u5929\uff0c\u5e77\u4e14\u7523\u91cf\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8da8\u52e2\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u626d\u8f49\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u540c\u6a23\u5730\uff0c\u59d4\u5167\u745e\u62c9\u539f\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u81e8\u906d\u9047\u7f8e\u570b\u5236\u88c1\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5728\u4e0b\u500b\u6708\u9078\u8209\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u5411\u59d4\u5167\u745e\u62c9\u99ac\u675c\u7f85\u653f\u5e9c\u201c\u958b\u5200\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u98a8\u96aa\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u6c99\u7279\u8207\u4e5f\u9580\u80e1\u585e\u7d44\u7e54\u53db\u4e82\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u722d\u7aef\uff0c\u8a72\u7d44\u7e54\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u4f86\u81ea\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u80e1\u585e\u7d44\u7e54\u5df2\u7d93\u52a0\u5927\u5c0d\u6c99\u7279\u77f3\u6cb9\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u5c55\u958b\u653b\u64ca\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u76f4\u63a5\u6467\u6bc0\u6c99\u7279\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u547d\u8109\u3002\u6c99\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u76f4\u63a5\u9762\u81e8\u4e2d\u65b7\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e5f\u65e5\u76ca\u7dca\u5f35\u3002S&amp;P Global Platts \u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u4e3b\u7ba1\u3001Pira Energy\u5275\u59cb\u4ebaGary Ross\u7a31\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u5316\u7232\u73fe\u5be6\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u751a\u81f3\u5927\u4e8e\u201c\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6625\u5929\u201d\u6642\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>4.<\/strong><strong>\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u6a5f\u5ba2\u937e\u60c5\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5927\u8209\u505a\u591a\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u5e74\u521d\u539f\u6cb9\u5009\u4f4d\u5df2\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u6a5f\u5009\u4f4d\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5e02\u5834\u9677\u5165\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u8b66\u544a\u4fe1\u865f\uff0c\u52a0\u5287\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u5927\u8209\u7372\u5229\u96e2\u5834\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u62cb\u552e\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u7232\u6b62\u9019\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\u5c1a\u672a\u767c\u751f\u3002\u9280\u884c\u5bb6\u5011\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u7232\u5927\u91cf\u6d8c\u5165\u539f\u6cb9\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u90fd\u662f\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u201c\u5468\u671f\u672b\u671f\u201d\u8cc7\u7523\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u7523\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5728\u9577\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u64f4\u5f35\u7684\u672b\u671f\u53d6\u5f97\u8000\u773c\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea2009\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u63da\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u904e\u9ad8\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5468\u671f\u7684\u672b\u671f\uff0c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u53d6\u5f97\u6700\u4f73\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u7232\u7d93\u6fdf\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u9577\u5c07\u8003\u9a57\u4f9b\u61c9\u8ddf\u4e0a\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u6b63\u5728\u5f9e\u5e02\u5834\u6536\u7dca\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7d50\u69cb\u8b8a\u5316\u4e2d\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u9019\u5c0e\u81f4\u73fe\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\u50f9\u683c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u672a\u4f86\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u7232\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u6bcf\u500b\u6708\u6efe\u52d5\u64cd\u4f5c\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\u7372\u5f97\u7a69\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>5.<\/strong><strong>\u7f8e\u570b\u8449\u5ca9\u6cb9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u8449\u5ca9\u6cb9\u884c\u696d\u53d6\u5f97\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u589e\u901f\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u7e3d\u7523\u91cf\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u589e\u52a010%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5373140\u842c\u6876\/\u5929\u3002\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u751f\u7523\u5546\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8449\u5ca9\u6cb9\u7523\u91cf\u98c8\u5347\u5c1a\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c0d\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u5f62\u6210\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u7523\u91cf\u5df2\u7d93\u88ab\u540c\u6a23\u589e\u9577\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6d88\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6e23\u6253\u9280\u884c\u7684Paul Horsnell\u7a31\uff0c\u8449\u5ca9\u6cb9\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u76ca\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u5b9a\u50f9\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e8c\u53e0\u7d00\u76c6\u5730\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u74f6\u9838\u4f7f\u5f97\u5c07\u539f\u6cb9\u6cb9\u5fb7\u514b\u85a9\u65af\u5dde\u897f\u90e8\u904b\u5f80\u7149\u6cb9\u5ee0\u3001\u5b58\u5132\u7f50\u6216\u51fa\u53e3\u78bc\u982d\u7684\u96e3\u5ea6\u52a0\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82f1\u6587\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u82f1\u570b\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u6642\u5831\u300b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u502b\u6566\u5e03\u502b\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u56db\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u6f32\u81f375\u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\uff0c\u9a45\u52d5\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\uff1f\u4e0b\u9762\u4e86\u5217\u51fa\u4e94\u5927\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 1. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":220255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[431],"tags":[568],"class_list":["post-220257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trends-strategies-zh-hant","tag-zh-hant-blog-tag-","sectors-oil-gas-zh-hant"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=220257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220257\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/220255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=220257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=220257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=220257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}