{"id":357648,"date":"2020-11-15T16:17:43","date_gmt":"2020-11-16T00:17:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e5%86%85%e5%9c%a8%e4%bb%b7%e5%80%bc-%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b-%e8%82%a1%e5%88%a9%e8%b4%b4%e7%8e%b0%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/"},"modified":"2020-11-15T16:18:37","modified_gmt":"2020-11-16T00:18:37","slug":"%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e5%85%a7%e5%9c%a8%e5%83%b9%e5%80%bc-%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b-%e8%82%a1%e5%88%a9%e8%b2%bc%e7%8f%be%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2020\/11\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e5%85%a7%e5%9c%a8%e5%83%b9%e5%80%bc-%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b-%e8%82%a1%e5%88%a9%e8%b2%bc%e7%8f%be%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u7968\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u6700\u5927\u6cd5\u5247\u662f\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u6240\u8b02\u80a1\u7968\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u5167\u6db5\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7684\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\uff0c\u7368\u7acb\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5916\u5728\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u50f9\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u8ce3\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7232\u4e86\u8a55\u4f30\u548c\u8a08\u7b97\u4e00\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u6703\u5efa\u7acb\u5404\u7a2e\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u53c3\u6578\u5305\u62ec\u80a1\u5229\u6d41\u3001\u8cbc\u73fe\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5269\u9918\u6536\u76ca\u7b49\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u7a2e\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u56b4\u91cd\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u6216\u8005\u6709\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u5c07\u504f\u96e2\u80a1\u7968\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b<\/h2>\n

\u6e2c\u7b97\u4e00\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u6642\uff0c\u73fe\u91d1\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u8b8a\u91cf\u5f88\u591a\u90fd\u8ddf\u73fe\u91d1\u6709\u95dc\uff1a\u80a1\u5229\u548c\u672a\u4f86\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u8ca8\u5e63\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u5229\u7528\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5ee3\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u662f\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b\uff08DDM\uff09\u3002\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u516c\u5f0f\u7232\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u503c=EDPS\u200b\/(CCE\u2212DGR)<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff1a<\/p>\n

EDPS=\u9810\u671f\u6bcf\u80a1\u80a1\u5229<\/p>\n

CCE=\u6b0a\u76ca\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c<\/p>\n

DGR=\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u7387<\/p>\n

\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u662f\u5047\u8a2d\u4e00\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u73fe\u6642\u80a1\u50f9\u7b49\u4e8e\u672a\u4f86\u6240\u6709\u80a1\u5229\u6298\u56de\u73fe\u503c\u5f8c\u7684\u6578\u984d\uff0c\u662f\u9810\u6e2c\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8b8a\u91cf\u5305\u62ec\u6bcf\u80a1\u80a1\u5229\u548c\u6de8\u8cbc\u73fe\u7387\uff08\u6b0a\u76ca\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\u6216\u5fc5\u8981\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u51cf\u53bb\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u9019\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u6e2c\u7b97\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u516c\u5141\u50f9\u503c\u6642\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u5e02\u5834\u884c\u60c5\uff0c\u8003\u616e\u7684\u662f\u80a1\u5229\u6d3e\u767c\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u5982\u679cDDM\u6c42\u5f97\u7684\u6578\u503c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7576\u524d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u8a72\u80a1\u5c31\u5c6c\uffff\u4f30\u503c\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u9069\u5408\u8cb7\u5165\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8b8a\u9ad4<\/h2>\n

DDM\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8907\u96dc\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4e00\u7684\u8b8a\u9ad4\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u8fed\u4ee3\u5047\u8a2d\u80a1\u5229\u96f6\u589e\u9577\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u5c31\u662f\u80a1\u5229\u9664\u4ee5\u9810\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

DDM\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u548c\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6208\u767b\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u6a21\u578b\uff08GGM\uff09\uff0c\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8a2d\u88ab\u8003\u5bdf\u516c\u53f8\u8655\u4e8e\u7a69\u5b9a\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u5373\u80a1\u5229\u6309\u7167\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u901f\u7387\u6c38\u7e8c\u589e\u9577\u3002\u6208\u767b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u7232\uff1a<\/p>\n

P= D1<\/sub>\/(r\u2212g)<\/p>\n

\u200b\u200b\u5176\u4e2d\uff1a<\/p>\n

P=\u80a1\u7968\u73fe\u503c<\/p>\n

D1<\/sub>=\u5f9e\u73fe\u5728\u8d77\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u5229<\/p>\n

R=\u6b0a\u76ca\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6536\u76ca\u7387<\/p>\n

G=\u6c38\u7e8c\u80a1\u5229\u56fa\u5b9a\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u7387<\/p>\n

\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u6208\u767b\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u6a21\u578b\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u6d3e\u767c\u7d66\u80a1\u6771\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u5275\u9020\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u80a1\u5229\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u591a\u500b\u8b8a\u9ad4\uff0c\u5404\u500b\u8b8a\u9ad4\u4f9d\u64da\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u7d0d\u5165\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u800c\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8b8a\u91cf\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u57fa\u4e8e\u7684\u662f\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u548c\u6700\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u6208\u767b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u85cd\u7c4c\u80a1\u548c\u6307\u6578\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u512a\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b\u5be6\u4f8b<\/h2>\n

\u5047\u8a2dX\u516c\u53f8\u4eca\u5e74\u6d3e\u767c\u4e86\u6bcf\u80a1$1.80\u7684\u80a1\u5229\u3002\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u9810\u8a08\u80a1\u5229\u5c07\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e745%\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u6c38\u7e8c\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u6b0a\u76ca\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\uff08\u5fc5\u8981\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff09\u72327%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c$1.80\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5229\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u4f30\u7b97\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5229\uff08D1\uff09\u9700\u8981\u7d93\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u7387\u9032\u884c\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u7232\uff1aD1 = D0 x (1+g) = $1.80 x (1+5%) = $1.89\u3002\u7136\u5f8c\uff0c\u501f\u7528GGM\u516c\u5f0f\uff0cX\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u5c31\u662fD(1) \/ (r – g) = $1.89 \/ ( 7% – 5%) = $94.50\u3002<\/p>\n

2014\u5e741\u6708\u81f32018\u5e741\u6708\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u96f6\u552e\u5de8\u982d\u6c83\u723e\u746aWalmart\uff08NYSE: WMT\uff09\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u80a1\u5229\u5206\u5225\u7232$1.92\u3001$1.96\u3001$2.00\u3001$2.04\u4ee5\u53ca$2.08\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u9577$0.04\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u7d04\u72322%\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u72325%\u3002\u6309\u71672019\u5e74\u521d$2.12\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u80a1\u5229\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u662f$2.12\/ (.05 – .02) = $70.67\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5229\u8cbc\u73fe\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7f3a\u9677<\/h2>\n

\u5118\u7ba1DDM\u7684\u6208\u767b\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u5ee3\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u5169\u5927\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0cGGM\u5047\u8a2d\u80a1\u5229\u6c38\u7e8c\u7a69\u5b9a\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u9019\u9069\u7528\u4e8e\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u719f\u7684\u6d3e\u606f\u80a1\uff0c\u4f46\u5e77\u4e0d\u9069\u7528\u4e8e\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u7387\u6ce2\u52d5\u5287\u70c8\u751a\u81f3\u6c92\u6709\u80a1\u5229\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u5c0d\u4e8e\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528DDM\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u501f\u52a9\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u4e5f\u6703\u5927\u5927\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0cDDM\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u554f\u984c\u662f\u8f38\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5c0d\u4e8e\u8f38\u5165\u7684\u6578\u64da\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5c31\u62ff\u4e0a\u9762\u7684X\u516c\u53f8\u8209\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4e0b\u964d10%\u81f34.5%\uff0c\u6c42\u51fa\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u662f$75.24\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u6b64\u524d\u7b97\u51fa\u7684$94.50\u964d\u5e45\u8d85\u904e20%\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08r\uff09\u4f4e\u4e8e\u80a1\u5229\u589e\u9577\u7387\uff08g\uff09\u2014\u2014\u516c\u53f8\u8667\u640d\u6216\u76c8\u5229\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5374\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6d3e\u767c\u80a1\u5229\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u51b5\u2014\u2014\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u5ee2\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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