{"id":370729,"date":"2021-02-21T22:33:06","date_gmt":"2021-02-22T06:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2021\/02\/%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e7%84%a6%e8%99%91-%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82-%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e8%80%85\/"},"modified":"2021-02-21T22:34:08","modified_gmt":"2021-02-22T06:34:08","slug":"%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e7%84%a6%e6%85%ae-%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e8%80%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2021\/02\/%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e7%84%a6%e6%85%ae-%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e8%80%85\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u8139\u7126\u616e\u5373\u5c07\u6539\u5beb\u80a1\u5e02\u5287\u672c\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u898b\u62db\u62c6\u62db\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5c0d\u4e8e\u50b5\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u6575\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u4fb5\u8755\u672a\u4f86\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5c0d\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9452\u4e8e\u901a\u8139\u5c0d\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4e5f\u5404\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f88\u96e3\u8aaa\u662f\u5229\u597d\u9084\u662f\u5229\u7a7a\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7126\u616e\u6b63\u5728\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u6539\u5beb\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u683c\u5c40\u548c\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u901a\u8139\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5982\u4f55\u898b\u62db\u62c6\u62db\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u80a1\u7968\u5c07\u906d\u9047\u6253\u64ca\uff0c\u4f46\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e4f\u6a5f\u6703\u3002Ned Davis Research\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u80a1\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u6642\u671f\u7684\u8d0f\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u76db\u96c6\u5718\u63a8\u85a6\u92b7\u552e\u64ac\u52d5\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\u6c7d\u8eca\u88fd\u9020\u5546<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=F\">\u798f\u7279\u6c7d\u8ecaFord Motor\uff08NYSE: F\uff09<\/a>\u548c\u50b3\u5a92\u516c\u53f8<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=DISCA\">Discovery Communications Inc\uff08NASDAQ: DISCA\uff09<\/a>\u3002\u5728\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u4f9b\u9700\u5931\u8861\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u7926\u696d\u80a1\u548c\u5316\u80a5\u751f\u7523\u5546\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5c0d\u6c96\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u95dc\u9019\u4e00\u8a71\u984c\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u73fe\u5728\u5982\u4f55\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u7d42\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u5c07\u6703\u518d\u6b21\u5f71\u97ff\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u50c5\u50c5\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u6578\u5468\uff0c\u9df9\u6d3e\u4eba\u58eb\u5df2\u7d93\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u5f9e\u5168\u7403\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u82af\u7247\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u751f\u7523\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u5275\u51fa\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u5927\u589e\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96a8\u8457\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u7684\u6108\u767c\u5149\u660e\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75c5\u4f8b\u6578\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u964d\u5e77\u4e14\u66f4\u591a\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u5373\u5c07\u51fa\u81fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u7126\u616e\u4e5f\u5728\u56db\u8655\u8513\u5ef6\u3002\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bTobias Levkovich\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u5b58\u5728\u8457\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5b9a\u50f9\u6b0a\u5c07\u6210\u7232\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u201c\u8d85\u984d\u6536\u76ca\u767c\u751f\u5668\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\uff0c\u201dLevkovich\u5beb\u9053\u3002\u201c\u5177\u5099\u50f9\u683c\u5f48\u6027\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u52dd\u51fa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ned Davis\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u80a1\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u4f73\u30021972\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e5d\u6b21\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u884c\u696d\u4e03\u6b21\u8dd1\u8d0f\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9818\u5148\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u723214\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u6295\u8cc7\u98a8\u683c\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u2014\u2014\u92b7\u552e\u984d\u5c0d\u4e8e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce2\u52d5\u66f4\u52a0\u654f\u611f\u4e14\u4f30\u503c\u76f8\u5c0d\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u2014\u2014\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8d70\u9ad8\u6642\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u5834\u770b\u597d\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u8607\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4eca\u5e74\u5927\u6f32\uff0c\u5305\u62ec<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=XOM\">\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u7f8e\u5b5aExxon Mobil\uff08NYSE: XOM\uff09<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=MRO\">Marathon Oil Corp\uff08NYSE: MRO\uff09<\/a>\u5728\u5167\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u751f\u7523\u5546\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u66b4\u6f32\u30022021\u5e74\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584a\u9818\u8dd1\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u6f32\u5e45\u662f\u6307\u6578\u7684\u516d\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u901a\u8139\u7d66\u5e02\u5834\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5e77\u975e\u76f4\u622a\u4e86\u7576\uff0c\u4f46\u900f\u904e\u8868\u50cf\u6211\u5011\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u50be\u5411\u4e8e\u7d93\u71df\u6760\u6746\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6536\u5165\u64ac\u52d5\u5229\u6f64\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u92b7\u552e\u984d\u548c\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u540c\u6642\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u5c0d\u4e8e\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u4f5c\u7528\u9ad8\u4e8e\u751f\u7523\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u76db\u548c\u5f6d\u535a\u7de8\u532f\u7684\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u4e8c\u6708\u521d\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u6389\u884c\u696d\u504f\u5dee\u5f8c\u7d93\u71df\u6760\u6746\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u76f8\u8f03\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u80a1\u7968\u9ad8\u51fa1.7\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u5e77\u4e14\u6709\u671b\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u56db\u500b\u6708\u8dd1\u8d0f\uff0c\u52752013\u5e74\u7e2e\u51cf\u8cfc\u50b5\u6050\u614c\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9577\u8dd1\u8d0f\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-370722 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e.jpg 960w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nai500.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/7344bae80ac4d70a4dc132579a36b81e-800x450.jpg 800w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 960px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 960\/540;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5305\u62ecDavid Kostin\u5728\u5167\u7684\u9ad8\u76db\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u884c\u696d\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u6750\u6599\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u696d\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8af8\u5982\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5c0d\u4e8e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u5e77\u4e0d\u6703\u69cb\u6210\u5a01\u8105\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u901f\u63d0\u9ad8100\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u516c\u53f8\u5229\u6f64\u4e0b\u964d1%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9078\u80a1\u6642\u66f4\u52a0\u504f\u5411\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u5360\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=UA\">Under Armour Inc\uff08NYSE: UA\uff09<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hans\/%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e6%9f%a5%e8%af%a2\/?qm_symbol=BIIB\">Biogen Inc\uff08NASDAQ: BIIB\uff09<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u7387\u548c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u964d\u4f4e\u80a1\u7968\u4e45\u671f\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u5e77\u63d0\u5347\u8fd1\u671f\u589e\u9577\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u201dKostin\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\u5beb\u9053\u3002\u201c\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u540d\u7fa9\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u63d0\u50f9\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d95\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u53cd\u800c\u627f\u58d3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u80a1\u50f9\u5c0d\u4e8e\u985e\u4f3c\u9285\u50f9\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7b49\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff0cAndrew 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