{"id":371404,"date":"2021-02-25T15:24:05","date_gmt":"2021-02-25T23:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2021\/02\/%e9%b2%8d%e5%a8%81%e5%b0%94-%e9%ab%98%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80-%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97\/"},"modified":"2021-02-25T15:25:16","modified_gmt":"2021-02-25T23:25:16","slug":"%e9%ae%91%e5%a8%81%e7%88%be-%e9%ab%98%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9-%e8%8f%af%e7%88%be%e8%a1%97","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2021\/02\/%e9%ae%91%e5%a8%81%e7%88%be-%e9%ab%98%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9-%e8%8f%af%e7%88%be%e8%a1%97\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7a31\u5370\u9214\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u5374\u5531\u8d77\u4e86\u53cd\u8abf"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u904e\u53bb25\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4e00\u76f4\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e77\u4e14\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u6703\u767c\u751f\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u901a\u8139\u7684\u52d5\u529b\u6a5f\u5236\u6703\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u767c\u751f\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u8a8d\u7232\u7206\u767c\u5f0f\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u6301\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u901a\u8139\u7684\u52d5\u529b\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff1a\u7121\u9700\u64d4\u5fc3\u9ad8\u901a\u8139<\/h2>\n

\u570b\u6703\u8b70\u54e1Warren Davidson\u63d0\u554f\u7a31\uff0c\u201c\u4e00\u5e74\u6642\u9593\u5167M2\uff08\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u91cf\uff09\u589e\u957725%\u201d\u662f\u5426\u6703\u201c\u51cf\u5c11\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u201d\u6642\uff0c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u56de\u61c9\u7a31\uff0c\u201c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u66fe\u662f\u901a\u8139\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u9577\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u4ee5\u4f86\u90fd\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e86\u3002\u201d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8aaa\u9053\uff0cM2\u548c\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u5df2\u7d93\u975e\u5e38\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u53ea\u67091.4%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u554f\u53ca\u4ed6\u6709\u95dc\u901a\u8139\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u6642\uff0c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u8a08\u901a\u8139\u7387\u5c07\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u57fa\u6578\u6548\u61c9\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u91cd\u5553\u5f8c\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u5e77\u4e0d\u8a8d\u7232\u9019\u5c07\u6703\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u9577\u671f\u9a45\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5118\u7ba1\u50f9\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u8207\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c\u5e77\u4e14\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u5e77\u4e0d\u8a8d\u7232\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73fe\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u6709\u61c9\u5c0d\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5927\u7a7a\u982d\u201dMichael Burry<\/h2>\n

\u96d6\u7136\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6975\u529b\u5b89\u64ab\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u4f46\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e77\u4e0d\u8a8d\u540c\u4ed6\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u982d\u300b\u7684\u539f\u578b\uff0c\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1Scion Asset Management\u7684\u5275\u59cb\u4ebaMichael Burry\u5c31\u8b66\u544a\u7a31\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u6ce8\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u9700\u6c42\u66b4\u589e\uff0c\u5e77\u63d0\u9192\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u505a\u597d\u61c9\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u7684\u6e96\u5099\u3002\u201c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4ee5\u73fe\u4ee3\u8ca8\u5e63\u7406\u8ad6\u7232\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u4e3b\u52d5\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u3002\u8ca0\u50b5\/GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u6500\u5347\uff0cM2\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u548cPMI\u5448\u73feV\u578b\u5fa9\u8607\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u842c\u5104\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u53e0\u52a0\u7d93\u6fdf\u91cd\u5553\u5c07\u9a45\u52d5\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u96c7\u54e1\u548c\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u6210\u672c\u98c8\u5347\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0cBurry\u9084\u5728\u63a8\u7279\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e86Jens O. Parsson\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\uff1a\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6559\u8a13\u300b\u3002\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u7576\u5e74\u7121\u6cd5\u652f\u4ed8\u6230\u722d\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5de8\u984d\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u7232\u4e86\u586b\u88dc\u7f3a\u53e3\u800c\u5927\u8086\u8209\u50b5\u548c\u767c\u884c\u65b0\u7684\u99ac\u514b\u7d19\u5e63\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u5c0e\u81f4\u60e1\u6027\u901a\u8139\u3002\u800c\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u6b63\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0a\u6f14\uff1a\u56e0\u7232\u7121\u6cd5\u652f\u4ed8\u61c9\u5c0d\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5f8c\u7e8c\u5f71\u97ff\u6240\u9700\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0d\u65b7\u767c\u884c\u570b\u50b5\u548c\u5370\u88fd\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0070\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u901a\u8139\u8207\u7576\u524d\u5f62\u52e2\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u8d85\u51fa\u4f60\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\u3002<\/p>\n

Burry\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73fe\u901a\u8139\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c07\u6703\u8a66\u5716\u6253\u58d3\u9ec3\u91d1\u548c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7b49\u8cc7\u7523\u3002\u4ed6\u73fe\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\uff0c\u7a31\u5728\u5408\u6cd5\u66b4\u529b\u800c\u7121\u60c5\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u653f\u5e9c\u7d44\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u58df\u65b7\u96c6\u5718\u7684\u547d\u6839\u5b50\u7d81\u5b9a\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88cf\uff0c\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebd\u672a\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a<\/h2>\n

\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u4e0a\u5468\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5df2\u7d93\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u901a\u8139\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u7a31\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5c07\u5f15\u767c\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u8d85\u7d1a\u5468\u671f\u3002\u201c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u901a\u8139\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u6b63\u5728\u626d\u8f49\uff0c\u201d\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u6211\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u65b0\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u7d93\u5553\u52d5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u76db<\/h2>\n

\u9ad8\u76db\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u6b63\u5728\u9a45\u52d5\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u7523\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u4f46\u63d0\u9192\u7a31\u57fa\u6578\u6548\u61c9\u53ef\u80fd\u9a45\u52d5\u4eca\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u6500\u5347\u3002\u201c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u589e\u9577\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u7387\u548c\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u80a1\u7968\u4e45\u671f\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63d0\u9ad8\u8fd1\u671f\u589e\u9577\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u201d\u9ad8\u76db\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u540d\u7fa9\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u63d0\u50f9\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d95\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u53cd\u800c\u627f\u58d3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718<\/h2>\n

\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f62\u52e2\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u4e5f\u5c07\u4e0d\u65b7\u5347\u6eab\u3002\u201c\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\uff0c\u201d\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bTobias Levkovich\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u5177\u5099\u50f9\u683c\u5f48\u6027\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u52dd\u51fa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u9ed1\u77f3<\/h2>\n

\u901a\u8139\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6211\u5011\u201c\u4e0d\u518d\u9806\u98a8\u201d\u4e86\u3002\u201c\u5728\u9577\u905435\u5e74\u523040\u5e74\u7684\u6f2b\u9577\u6642\u9593\u88cf\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u6295\u8cc7\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6578\u4e0d\u65b7\u64f4\u5927\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e8e\u6211\u5011\u9019\u4e9b\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7\u5b89\u8eab\u7acb\u547d\u7684\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4eab\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u9577\u671f\u7684\u9806\u98a8\uff0c\u201d\u9ed1\u77f3\u5168\u7403\u4fe1\u8cb8\u4e3b\u7ba1Dwight Scott\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4e0d\u8a8d\u7232\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u9084\u80fd\u4eab\u53d7\u5230\u9806\u98a8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u9006\u98a8\u3002\u9019\u624d\u662f\u8a0e\u8ad6\u901a\u8139\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u610f\u7fa9\u6240\u5728\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Vanguard<\/h2>\n

Vanguard\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5c0d\u4e8e\u5e02\u5834\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u201c\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u66ab\u6642\u6027\u9084\u662f\u66f4\u52a0\u6df1\u5c64\u7684\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u771f\u7684\u662f\u7576\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u201dVanguard\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\u4fe1\u8cb8\u4e3b\u7ba1Arvind Narayanan\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u73fe\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u5145\u65a5\u8457\u7232\u4e86\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u800c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u6d77\u91cf\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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