{"id":378266,"date":"2021-04-14T00:42:19","date_gmt":"2021-04-14T07:42:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=378266"},"modified":"2021-04-14T00:42:19","modified_gmt":"2021-04-14T07:42:19","slug":"%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9-%e9%87%91%e5%83%b9-%e9%bd%8a%e9%a3%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2021\/04\/%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9-%e9%87%91%e5%83%b9-%e9%bd%8a%e9%a3%9b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u8139\u8207\u91d1\u50f9\u9f4a\u98db\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u6703\u5f88\u5feb\u51fa\u73fe\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u901a\u8139\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u9ec3\u91d1\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u500b\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9ec3\u91d1\u6b77\u4f86\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96\u901a\u8139\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9019\u4e00\u6b21\u901a\u8139\u6700\u7d42\u8981\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u54e1\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u8a8d\u70ba\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u4f86\u52e2\u6d36\u6d36\u3002<\/p>\n

\u751a\u81f3\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5b98\u54e1\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u627f\u8a8d\u4e86\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4eca\u5e74\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u9ede\u9663\u5716\u4e2d \uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(FOMC)\u9810\u8a08\uff0c\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578(PCE)\u5e74\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8b8a\u5316\u5c07\u5f9e2020\u5e7412\u6708\u76841.3%\u98c6\u5347\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u76842.4%\u3002\u63d0\u9192\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u524d\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u503c\u70ba1.8%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u4e14\u5225\u5fd8\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u8ac7\u8ad6\u7684\u9084\u53ea\u662f\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5c0d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4e5f\u5927\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u6d88\u8cbb\u69cb\u6210\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4eba\u5011\u8f49\u5411\u8cfc\u8cb7\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\u8d85\u904e\u4e86\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6bd4\u5b98\u65b9\u5831\u544a\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8981\u9ad8\uff0cIMF\u6700\u8fd1\u4e5f\u627f\u8a8d\u4e86\u9019\u4e00\u9ede \u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u8457FOMC\u6210\u54e1\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u53c8\u8b8a\u6210\u4e86\u64d4\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u9df9\u6d3e\uff1f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u53ea\u662f\u66ab\u6642\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u57fa\u6578\u6548\u61c9\uff082020\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u901a\u8139\u6578\u5b57\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff09\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\u5f15\u767c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0a\u6f32\u5f15\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u4e0d\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u9053\u7406\u3002\u7562\u7adf\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u66ab\u6642\u6027\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5728\u767c\u63ee\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7e3d\u662f\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u8868\u793a\u201c\u5c0d\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u66ab\u6642\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\u537b\u6c92\u6709\u3002\u4f46\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u3002\u8acb\u770b\u4e0b\u5716\u4e2d\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u548c\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\"<\/p>\n

\u6b63\u5982\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u88e1\uff0c\u4e2d\u671f\u548c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u90fd\u986f\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e0d\u50c5\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6703\u66ab\u6642\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c\u50f9\u683c\u6703\u6709\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u5e73\u5747\u70ba2.5%\uff0c\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u63a5\u8fd12.3%\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u7f8e\u806f\u51322%\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\u4e86\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u932f\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8aaa\u662f\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u66ab\u6642\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b8c\u5168\u5728\u592e\u884c\u63a7\u5236\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u81ea\u8ca0\u66fe\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e8620\u4e16\u7d0070\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6eef\u8139\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u9ec3\u91d1\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u653e\u7570\u5f69\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4eca\u5929\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u7684\u5c31\u696d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u7e3d\u80fd\u901a\u904e\u63d0\u9ad8\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4f86\u63a7\u5236\u5f8c\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7684Robert J. Barro\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u201c\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u7387\u7d2e\u6839\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5c07\u6709\u9650\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u800c\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7684\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u65b0\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u65b0\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\u8a66\u5716\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5167\u8d85\u984d\u5b8c\u6210\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6d6a\u8cbbPaul Volcker\u5275\u9020\u7684\u8072\u8b7d\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u812b\u9328\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u8ca0\u9762\u885d\u64ca\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u592e\u884c\u9032\u884c\u5bec\u9b06\u8655\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u6703\u7522\u751f\u9577\u671f\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4eba\u5011\u660e\u767d\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u975e\u540c\u5c0b\u5e38\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u6b63\u5e38\u3002\u4f46\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u9060\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u3002\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u6700\u8fd1\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u6703\u5148\u767c\u5236\u4eba\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u963b\u7919\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u8607\u3002\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u5011\u958b\u59cb\u5c07\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u6cc1\u8996\u70ba\u65b0\u5e38\u614b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u767c\u751f\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6982\u6cc1\u4e00\u4e0b\u5c31\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u50cf\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7684Kenneth Rogoff\u6240\u8a8d\u70ba\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u548c\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u9577\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5371\u96aa\u3002\u7562\u7adf\uff0c\u8207\u5927\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u5f8c\u53ea\u6709\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u790e\u66b4\u6f32\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u5ee3\u7fa9\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5728\u98c6\u5347\u2013\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u5716\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n

\"M2\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u901f\"<\/p>\n

\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c2007-2009\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5f8c\u5275\u9020\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u4e3b\u8981\u6d41\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u90fd\u66f4\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u6d41\u5165\u4e86\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u6709\u751a\u8005\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4f34\u96a8\u8457\u975e\u5e38\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u7a7a\u524d\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u66f4\u6df1\u5730\u9677\u5165\u50b5\u52d9\u9677\u9631\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u524a\u5f31\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u53ca\u6642\u5be6\u73fe\u5229\u7387\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff0c\u66f4\u4f55\u6cc1\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u5f71\u97ff\u6e1b\u5f31\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u6d17\u724c\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u4f46\u4e26\u975e\u6700\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f34\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u75b2\u8edf\uff0c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u548c\u570b\u969b\u904b\u8f38\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u901a\u8139\u602a\u7378\u903c\u8fd1\u7684\u5148\u5146\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e00\u5207\u5c0d\u9ec3\u91d1\u5e02\u5834\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u9019\u9ebc\u8aaa\u5427\uff0c2021\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u7387\u7684\u98c6\u5347\u5c0d\u9ec3\u91d1\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u5229\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4f5c\u70ba\u901a\u8139\u5c0d\u6c96\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u7372\u76ca\u3002\u800c\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u58d3\u529b\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5c0d\u91d1\u50f9\u69cb\u6210\u652f\u6490\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u50b5\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u53cd\u5f48\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u62b5\u6d88\u9019\u4e00\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9577\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u5be6\u73fe\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u9019\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u5927\u653e\u7570\u5f69\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u901a\u8139\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u9ec3\u91d1\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u500b\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9ec3\u91d1\u6b77\u4f86\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96\u901a\u8139\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9019\u4e00\u6b21\u901a\u8139\u6700\u7d42\u8981\u6bd4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":378263,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[426],"tags":[670,561],"class_list":["post-378266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news-zh-hant","tag-670","tag-561","sectors-gold-zh-hant","locations-620","locations-europe-zh-hant","locations-us-zh-hant"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=378266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378266\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/378263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=378266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=378266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=378266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}