{"id":466842,"date":"2023-07-13T00:53:39","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T07:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2023\/07\/2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%ba%8c%e5%ad%a3%e5%ba%a6-%e9%93%9c%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be-%e4%b8%8b%e5%8d%8a%e5%b9%b4-%e9%93%9c%e4%bb%b7%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b\/"},"modified":"2023-07-13T00:53:55","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T07:53:55","slug":"2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%ba%8c%e5%ad%a3%e5%ba%a6-%e9%8a%85%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7-%e4%b8%8b%e5%8d%8a%e5%b9%b4-%e9%8a%85%e5%83%b9%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2023\/07\/2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%ba%8c%e5%ad%a3%e5%ba%a6-%e9%8a%85%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7-%e4%b8%8b%e5%8d%8a%e5%b9%b4-%e9%8a%85%e5%83%b9%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"2023\u5e74\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u9285\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u9867\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u9285\u50f9\u9810\u6e2c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5982\u679c\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9285\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u6ce2\u52d5\u201d\u30022023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u591a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u88e1\uff0c\u9285\u50f9\u90fd\u904b\u884c\u57288000\u7f8e\u5143\/\u5678\u7684\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c1\u670823\u65e5\u66f4\u662f\u89f8\u53ca\u5e74\u5167\u9ad8\u9ede\u76849356\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9285\u50f9\u672a\u80fd\u5b88\u4f4f\u9019\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u96a8\u5f8c\u53c8\u8dcc\u56de\u5230\u4e86\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u4eca\u9032\u5165\u4e862023\u5e74\u7684\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u9285\u7684\u4f9b\u9700\u548c\u50f9\u683c\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u8b8a\u5316\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u4f86\u807d\u807d\u5404\u8def\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u5c08\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u600e\u9ebc\u8aaa\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u9285\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2<\/h2>\n

\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u521d\u9285\u50f9\u58318917\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5b63\u5167\u6700\u9ad8\u9ede\u662f4\u670813\u65e5\u76849058.50\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u5f8c\u4e00\u8def\u8dcc\u81f3\u5b63\u5167\u4f4e\u9ede\u76847901.50\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u9285\u50f9\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u6536\u4e8e8315.50\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u904e600\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8ddf\u5e74\u521d\u57fa\u672c\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u9285\u50f9\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u8def\u5b5a\u7279\u548cLSEG\u7684\u9ad8\u7d1a\u5206\u6790\u5e2bFederico Gay\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u958b\u59cb\u91cb\u653e\u51fa\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u4fe1\u865f\uff0c4\u6708\u7684\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff09\u51fa\u73fe\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u8981\u6bd4\u6700\u521d\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u505c\u6eef\u8d8a\u767c\u660e\u986f\u3002\u9285\u50f9\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6674\u96e8\u9336\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u64f4\u5f35\u6642\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u5de5\u696d\u6d3b\u8e8d\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

2023\u5e74\u9285\u7684\u4f9b\u9700<\/h2>\n

\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u9285\u6d88\u8cbb\u570b\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5f31\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u4e5f\u65bd\u58d3\u9285\u50f9\u3002CRU Group\u7684Robert Edwards\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6240\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4e2d\u570b\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f62\u52e2\u6b20\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u8af8\u5982\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u548c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u570b\u5167\u7684\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u5834\u2014\u2014\u7b49\u7da0\u8272\u80fd\u6e90\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u9285\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f9d\u7136\u5805\u633a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u95dc\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u8def\u5b5a\u7279\u7684Gay\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u63a8\u51fa\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u547c\u8072\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u9019\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u7576\u524d\u8af8\u5982\u623f\u5730\u7522\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5c0f\u884c\u696d\u7b49\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7576\u4e2d\u7684\u884c\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u632f\u570b\u5167\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u5982\u9810\u671f\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7de9\u3002<\/p>\n

Edwards\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u5373\u4f7f\u51fa\u73fe\u5fa9\u8607\u5e45\u5ea6\u9810\u8a08\u4e5f\u5c07\u6709\u9650\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u5e02\u5834\u592a\u5c0f\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u5728Gay\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6230\u65bd\u58d3\u9285\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u5de5\u696d\u6d3b\u52d5\u56de\u6696\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6230\u722d\u4e5f\u7d66\u5e02\u5834\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5982\u679c\u5c07\u9031\u671f\u62c9\u9577\uff0c2030\u5e74\u5e95\u4e4b\u524d\u9285\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u6703\u9762\u81e8\u4f9b\u7d66\u77ed\u7f3a\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u521d\u7d1a\u7926\u5546\u548c\u751f\u7522\u5546\u589e\u52a0\u65b0\u7684\u4f9b\u7d66\u5b58\u5728\u5404\u7a2e\u969c\u7919\u3002<\/p>\n

Edwards\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u969c\u7919\u5305\u62ec\u7926\u5546\u6279\u51c6\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u610f\u9858\u4e0d\u5f37\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u71df\u74b0\u5883\u6b20\u4f73\u3002Gay\u8868\u793a\u8d0a\u540c\uff0c\u7a31\u7576\u524d\u6700\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u667a\u5229\u548c\u79d8\u9b6f\u7b49\u7926\u696d\u5927\u570b\u7684\u7926\u696d\u5b58\u5728\u8457\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u9577\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7f3a\u4e4f\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5c07\u4fb5\u8755\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u653e\u7de9\u3002<\/p>\n

2023\u5e74\u9285\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u6e2c<\/h2>\n

\u77ed\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u9285\u5e02\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5305\u62ec\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5fa9\u8607\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u503c\u5f97\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u502b\u6566\u91d1\u5c6c\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08LME\uff09\u9285\u7684\u4f4e\u5eab\u5b58\uff08\u622a\u81f37\u67084\u65e5\u70ba6.72\u5678\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u50f9\u683c\uff0cCRU\u9810\u8a08\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u9285\u50f9\u5c07\u5448\u5340\u9593\u9707\u76ea\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u5747\u50f9\u57288500\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002Gay\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c7\u6708\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u91cb\u653e\u51fa\u7a4d\u6975\u4fe1\u865f\uff0c\u9285\u50f9\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6f32\u751a\u81f3\u7a81\u78349000\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7f3a\u4e4f\u652f\u6490\u9285\u50f9\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u904b\u884c\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

FocusEconomics\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9810\u8a08\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9285\u50f9\u5c07\u7e7c\u7e8c\u904b\u884c\u5728\u7576\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2d\u570b\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72c0\u6cc1\u4ee5\u53ca\u523a\u6fc0\u653f\u7b56\u5c07\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u7aef\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\u91cd\u9ede\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4f9b\u7d66\u7aef\uff0c\u667a\u5229\u548c\u79d8\u9b6f\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u4ee5\u53ca\u7926\u5c71\u7684\u52de\u8cc7\u7cfe\u7d1b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u9285\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u69cb\u6210\u4e0a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u9810\u8a082023\u5e74\u9285\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u683c\u70ba8341\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u5747\u50f9\u57288426\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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