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\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bJohn Stoltzfus\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u5718\u968a\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u8a082024\u5e74\u5c07\u662f\u904e\u6e21\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u8a08\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c07\u5f9e\u9650\u5236\u6027\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f49\u578b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u5011\u5728\u9031\u4e00\u7d66\u5ba2\u6236\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u5beb\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u662f\u5047\u8a2d2023\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u65e9\u671f\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u660e\u986f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u5c07\u5ef6\u7e8c\u52302024\u5e74\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6291\u5236\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u5247\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u63a1\u53d6\u7dca\u7e2e\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

Stoltzfus\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5718\u968a\u9810\u8a08\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c07\u57282024\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u6700\u665a\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n

John Stoltzfus\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u5718\u968a\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5c0d\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u904e\u65bc\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u6700\u7d42\u7d50\u675f\u7576\u524d\u57fa\u6e96\u52a0\u606f\u9031\u671f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u884c\u81e8\u6642\u964d\u606f\u751a\u81f3\u4e0a\u8abf\u5229\u7387\u3002\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u5982\u679c\u901a\u8139\u4e0d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u5e74\u521d\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u8abf\u5229\u7387\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u9031\u4e00\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5728\u672c\u5468\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57285.25%-5.5%\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u70ba98%\uff0c\u52301\u6708\u4efd\u4e0d\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u70ba94%\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6839\u64daCME FedWatch Tool\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u81f3\u5c11\u964d\u606f25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u70ba38.4%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e00\u5468\u524d\u768457.4%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u65b9\u9762\uff0cStoltzfus\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5718\u968a\u9810\u8a08\uff0c\u6280\u8853\u3001\u901a\u4fe1\u670d\u52d9\u548c\u6d88\u8cbb\u985e\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u9031\u671f\u6027\u884c\u696d\u57282023\u5e74\u5f15\u9818\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u5c07\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8868\u73fe\u826f\u597d\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u5229\u7387\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u9810\u8a08\u4f01\u696d\u6536\u5165\u548c\u76c8\u5229\u5c07\u57282024\u5e74\u7e7c\u7e8c\u589e\u9577\u3002\u9810\u8a08\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u5c07\u9054\u5230\u6bcf\u80a1240\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6839\u64daFactSet\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e500\u6307\u6578\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8d85\u904e18\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

Stoltzfus\u65af\u662f\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6700\u770b\u6f32\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u6b63\u78ba\u9810\u6e2c\u4e86\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u4ed6\u73fe\u5728\u8207Fundstrat\u7684Tom Lee\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5c0d2024\u5e74\u7684\u524d\u666f\u6301\u6a02\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

Yardeni Research\u7684EdYardeni\u4e5f\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8d85\u7d1a\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u660e\u5e74\u5c07\u9054\u52305400\u9ede\uff0c\u52302025\u5e74\u5c07\u9054\u52306000\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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