{"id":589717,"date":"2025-08-26T17:29:19","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T00:29:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=589717"},"modified":"2025-08-26T17:29:19","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T00:29:19","slug":"will-nvidia-nvda-earnings-reset-the-ai-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/08\/will-nvidia-nvda-earnings-reset-the-ai-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Nvidia (NVDA) earnings reset the AI trade?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u5df2\u5c07\u4eca\u665a\u7684 Nvidia \u8ca1\u5831\u8996\u70ba\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u6369\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u5bb6\u5e02\u503c 4 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6676\u7247\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5df2\u53cd\u5f48\u8d85\u904e 30%\uff0c\u4ee5\u7d04 40 \u500d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u671f\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u70ba\u8ca1\u5831\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u5927\u7d04 2,600 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5e02\u503c\u6ce2\u52d5\u505a\u6e96\u5099\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u9810\u671f\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e 53%\uff0c\u7d04\u70ba 460 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u7d44\u5408\u2014\u2014\u9ad8\u6602\u4f30\u503c\u3001\u6975\u5927\u95dc\u6ce8\u5ea6\u8207\u6975\u5ea6\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u8a2d\u7f6e\u2014\u2014\u610f\u5473\u8457 AI \u6545\u4e8b\u54ea\u6015\u7a0d\u6709\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u8fc5\u901f\u50b3\u904d\u5927\u578b\u6b0a\u503c\u80a1\u4e26\u6ce2\u53ca\u6307\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u570b\u71df\u6536\uff1a\u4f55\u6642\u56de\u6b78\u3001\u4ee5\u4f55\u7a2e\u689d\u4ef6\u56de\u6b78\uff1f<\/h3>\n

\u9996\u500b\u7dda\u7d22\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u6642\u9593\u8868\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3 Nvidia \u4f55\u6642\u6062\u5fa9\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u9304\u5f97\u53ef\u89c0\u92b7\u552e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u65b0\u9650\u5236\u4e0b\u80fd\u9054\u5230\u591a\u5c11\u6536\u5165\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u70ba\u7b26\u5408\u7f8e\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u898f\u7bc4\u800c\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684 H20 \u8655\u7406\u5668\u672c\u6708\u906d\u9047\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u5c01\u9396\uff0c\u64da\u5831\u5c0e Nvidia \u8981\u6c42\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u505c\u7522\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5317\u4eac\u4ee5\u5b89\u5168\u8003\u91cf\u8b66\u544a\u570b\u5167\u8cb7\u5bb6\u52ff\u8cfc\u8a72\u6676\u7247\u3002\u9019\u53c8\u758a\u52a0\u53e6\u4e00\u9805\u982d\u75db\u4e8b\uff1aNvidia \u540c\u610f\u5c31\u4e2d\u570b\u92b7\u552e\u984d\u7e73\u4ea4 15% \u4ee5\u63db\u53d6\u51fa\u53e3\u8a31\u53ef\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u9805\u4ee3\u50f9\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u8b93\u6b65\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5f15\u4f86\u5169\u9ee8\u6279\u8a55\u3002\u5766\u767d\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u55ae\u7d14\u7684\u6210\u9577\u69d3\u687f\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u5ea7\u653f\u7b56\u8ff7\u5bae\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u95dc\u5340\u57df\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u8207\u8a55\u8ad6\uff0c\u8207\u8ca1\u5831\u6578\u5b57\u672c\u8eab\u4e00\u6a23\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u793a\u610f\u80fd\u5728\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u55ae\u4f4d\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u6709\u9650\u6cd5\u5f8b\u963b\u529b\u4e0b\u91cd\u8fd4\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7591\u616e\u4fbf\u6703\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u82e5\u516c\u53f8\u6307\u51fa\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u9577\u671f\u64fe\u52d5\u2014\u2014\u4f86\u81ea\u8a31\u53ef\u6469\u64e6\u3001\u63a1\u8cfc\u653e\u7de9\u6216\u5730\u65b9\u6a19\u6e96\u8f49\u8b8a\u2014\u2014\u6a21\u578b\u4fbf\u9808\u524a\u6e1b 2026 \u5e74\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002\u6e20\u9053\u5eab\u5b58\u3001\u8a02\u55ae\u5ef6\u5f8c\u6216\u88ab\u975e\u7f8e\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c07\u88ab\u9010\u884c\u5256\u6790\u3002\u5728\u5982\u6b64\u64c1\u64e0\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u63a1\u53d6\u8b39\u614e\u8a9e\u6c23\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u904e\u672c\u5b63\u696d\u7e3e\u8d85\u8d8a\u9810\u671f\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u660e\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684 AI \u9700\u6c42\uff1a\u6210\u9577\u4ecd\u5728\u8907\u5229\u589e\u9577\u55ce\uff1f<\/h3>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u7dda\u7d22\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u3002AI \u5efa\u8a2d\u4f7f Nvidia \u6210\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u300c\u9078\u7926\u8207\u93df\u5b50\u300d\u4f9b\u61c9\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5982\u4eca\u9700\u8981\u8b49\u64da\uff0c\u8b49\u660e\u8d85\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u8cb7\u5bb6\u8207\u539f\u751f AI \u65b0\u5275\u4ecd\u5728\u52a0\u901f 2026 \u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7684\u63a1\u8cfc\u3002\u95dc\u6ce8\u5177\u9ad4\u8a0a\u865f\uff1a\u8a02\u55ae\u80fd\u898b\u5ea6\u3001\u4ea4\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u3001\u96f2\u7aef\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4efb\u4f55\u95dc\u65bc\u7522\u80fd\u64f4\u5145\u901f\u5ea6\u8d85\u524d\u65bc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u3002\u591a\u982d\u5e0c\u671b\u7ba1\u7406\u968e\u5c64\u8868\u660e\u672a\u51fa\u8ca8\u8a02\u55ae\u4ecd\u7136\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u4e14\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8ca0\u8f09\u6b63\u5728\u5f9e\u8a13\u7df4\u64f4\u5c55\u5230\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u63a8\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0d\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u70ba\u8ca0\u6210\u9577\u2014\u2014\u5f88\u5c11\u4eba\u9810\u671f\u6703\u9019\u6a23\u2014\u2014\u800c\u662f\u8d85\u9ad8\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u56e0\u5ba2\u6236\u6d88\u5316\u8fd1\u671f\u7522\u80fd\u6216\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u5de5\u4f5c\u8ca0\u8f09\u512a\u5148\u63a1\u7528\u5b9a\u5236\u6676\u7247\u3002\u92b7\u552e\u9031\u671f\u7565\u70ba\u62c9\u9577\u6216\u5c0d\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u8a02\u55ae\u63a1\u53d6\u8f03\u4fdd\u5b88\u8a9e\u6c23\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u4e00\u6a94\u9ad8\u500d\u6578\u80a1\u63a8\u5411\u4f30\u503c\u91cd\u4f30\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5 Nvidia \u63cf\u7e6a\u51fa\u904b\u7b97\u9700\u6c42\u6301\u7e8c\u5448\u968e\u8e8d\u5f0f\u6210\u9577\u4e14\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u6703\u628a AI \u9031\u671f\u5411\u5f8c\u6578\u5e74\u5916\u63a8\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u8ca1\u5831\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6700\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u6aa2\u8996\uff1aAI \u5efa\u8a2d\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u8907\u5229\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u6216\u6b63\u8f49\u5411\u8f03\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u7bc0\u594f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6bdb\u5229\u8207\u4f30\u503c\uff1a\u9019\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u80fd\u652f\u6490 40 \u500d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u55ce\uff1f<\/h3>\n

\u5728 40 \u500d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff0c\u9580\u6abb\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u8d85\u8d8a\u9810\u671f\uff1b\u9084\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u80fd\u8b49\u660e\u76c8\u9918\u80fd\u529b\u4ecd\u6bd4\u5171\u8b58\u6210\u9577\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u6558\u4e8b\u3002\u9019\u95dc\u4e4e\u6bdb\u5229\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c07\u95dc\u6ce8\u6bdb\u5229\u8ecc\u8de1\u4ee5\u53ca\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u95dc\u5b9a\u50f9\u7d00\u5f8b\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u6210\u672c\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u82e5\u96f6\u7d44\u4ef6\u6210\u672c\u8da8\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u800c\u5e73\u5747\u552e\u50f9\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u6bdb\u5229\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u80fd\u652f\u6490\u9019\u500b\u500d\u6578\u3002\u82e5 Nvidia \u6307\u5f15\u96a8\u8457\u7d44\u5408\u8b8a\u5316\u6216\u7af6\u722d\u614b\u52e2\u63a8\u52d5\u50f9\u683c\u800c\u8d70\u5411\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff0c\u500d\u6578\u58d3\u7e2e\u4fbf\u6210\u70ba\u7121\u4eba\u53ef\u907f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9084\u6709\u653f\u7b56\u56e0\u7d20\u6b63\u4fb5\u8755\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u90a3 15% \u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u8a31\u53ef\u5fb5\u6536\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u9019\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u57df\u5c0d\u6210\u9577\u8ab2\u7a05\uff1b\u8feb\u4f7f\u7522\u54c1\u6539\u9053\u7684\u9650\u5236\u4ea6\u7136\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u554f\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6469\u64e6\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5c0d\u570b\u969b\u5229\u6f64\u6c60\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u4e0b\u4fee\u3002\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u7684\u8a9e\u6c23\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u8a2d\u9019\u5834\u8faf\u8ad6\u3002\u6e05\u695a\u8aaa\u660e\u76e3\u7ba1\u9650\u5236\u3001\u7522\u54c1\u8def\u7dda\u5716\u8207\u5ba2\u6236\u627f\u8afe\u5982\u4f55\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u5c07\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u9858\u610f\u627f\u64d4\u53e6\u4e00\u5e74\u9ad8\u6a94\u500d\u6578\u3002\u5728 AI \u652f\u51fa\u9f90\u5927\u4f46\u975e\u7121\u9650\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u8b49\u660e\u5b9a\u50f9\u80fd\u529b\u8207\u71df\u904b\u69d3\u687f\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u689d\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6301\u5009\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\uff1a\u671f\u6b0a\u4f30\u50f9\u4e00\u500b 2,600 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5<\/h3>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u5177\u52d5\u80fd\u7684\u7dda\u7d22\u4f86\u81ea\u4ea4\u6613\u9762\u3002\u671f\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u4f30\u50f9\u4e00\u500b\u53f2\u7121\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u8ca1\u5831\u5f8c\u632f\u5e45\uff0c\u7d04\u70ba 2,600 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5e02\u503c\u7684\u96d9\u5411\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u8a2d\u7f6e\u653e\u5927\u4e86 AI \u751f\u614b\u7cfb\u7684\u53cd\u994b\u8ff4\u8def\uff0c\u5f9e\u6676\u7247\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u5230\u96f2\u7aef\u5e73\u53f0\u3002\u4e00\u6b21\u8d85\u9810\u671f\u4e26\u4e0a\u8abf\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u82e5\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u9700\u6c42\u7d66\u51fa\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u672a\u5145\u5206\u5e03\u5c40\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u8ffd\u50f9\uff0c\u800c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7684\u8ce3\u65b9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5306\u5fd9\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002\u4e00\u6b21\u672a\u9054\u9810\u671f\u6216\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u5feb\u901f\u53bb\u98a8\u96aa\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1a\u9ad8\u8c9d\u5854\u7684 AI \u53d7\u60e0\u80a1\u56de\u5410\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u6b0a\u503c\u80a1\u6307\u6578\u9707\u76ea\uff0c\u4e14\u590f\u5b63\u7684\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52d5 regime \u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u6253\u7834\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6563\u6236\u53c3\u8207\u5247\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u628a\u706b\u3002\u9019\u662f\u672c\u5b63\u6700\u53d7\u77da\u76ee\u7684\u55ae\u4e00\u80a1\u7968\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e14\u5927\u91cf\u8cc7\u91d1\u6e67\u5165\u8a8d\u8cfc\u3001\u96f6\u65e5\u7d50\u69cb\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u610f\u5916\u6975\u70ba\u654f\u611f\u3002Nvidia \u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u6df1\uff0c\u4f46\u975e\u7121\u9650\uff1b\u55ae\u5411\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u53ef\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u6a5f\u68b0\u5f0f\u7684\u8ddf\u9032\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4eca\u665a Nvidia \u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u4e0d\u50c5\u95dc\u4e4e\u4e00\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4e5f\u5728\u6aa2\u8996\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u62ac\u5347\u5229\u5dee\u8207\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u7206\u958b\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5438\u6536 AI \u7684\u71b1\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u665a\u7b97\u662f\u52dd\u5229\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/h3>\n

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Nvidia \u5df2\u6210\u70ba AI \u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6674\u96e8\u8868\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u56e0\u800c\u6210\u70ba\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u597d\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u3002\u9019\u5bb6\u5e02\u503c 4 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u98a8\u5411\u6a19\u4ee5\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u500d\u6578\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u5f15\u767c\u4e8c\u5206\u5316\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5728\u95dc\u6ce8\u4e2d\u570b\u7dda\u7d22\u3002\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u5728\u95dc\u6ce8\u6bdb\u5229\u7dda\u7d22\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u95dc\u6ce8\u671f\u6b0a\u7dda\u7d22\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u6ce2\u53ca\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u8a08\u756b\u3001\u7af6\u722d\u8005\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u8f03\u9ad8\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u70ba\u9577\u4e45\u671f\u6210\u9577\u6545\u4e8b\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n

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