Goldman Sachs \u5c07\u4e2d\u570b\u98db\u9db4\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3 Neutral\uff08\u4e2d\u6027\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u55ae\u4e00\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u96e2\u5cb8\u4e2d\u570b\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u95dc\u7a05\u9670\u5f71\u4e0b\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u6d88\u8cbb\u985e\u9632\u79a6\u6027\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6a19\u8a18\u3002\u5728 IMF \u5f0f\u8f03\u5f31\u7684\u6210\u9577\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e14 Goldman \u73fe\u5728\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u570b 2025 \u5e74 GDP \u7d04\u70ba 4%\u30012026 \u5e74\u7d04\u70ba 3.5%\uff0c\u5b30\u5e7c\u5152\u5976\u7c89\u9f8d\u982d\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u5169\u5927\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u963b\u529b\u7684\u4ea4\u532f\u8655\uff1a\u51fa\u751f\u968a\u5217\u7e2e\u5c0f\u8207\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u627f\u58d3\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u985e\u516c\u53f8\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4fe1\u865f\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff1a\u512a\u8cea\u54c1\u724c\u4ecd\u5177\u6295\u8cc7\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u91cd\u65b0\u4f30\u503c\u9700\u8981\u9760\u696d\u7e3e\u8b49\u660e\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7a7a\u558a\u3002<\/p>\n
Goldman \u5c0d\u5cb8\u5167\u8207\u96e2\u5cb8\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u76f8\u7576\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u80a1\u4fdd\u6301\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u8207\u6230\u7565\u4e3b\u984c\uff08\u5982\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff09\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u5167\u5730 A \u80a1\u4fdd\u6301\u5efa\u8a2d\u6027\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\u5c0d\u98db\u9db4\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u4e0a\u5e02\u3001\u7531\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u5feb\u76c8\u5229\u4ea4\u4ed8\u8207\u66f4\u9ad8\u73fe\u91d1\u56de\u5831\u7684\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u4ecd\u8a8d\u70ba\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5bec\u9b06\u548c\u76c8\u5229\u6539\u5584\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5ee3\u7fa9 A \u80a1\u5b58\u5728\u96d9\u4f4d\u6578\u53cd\u5f48\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u9810\u671f CSI 300 \u53ef\u9054\u7d04 4,600 \u9ede\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u7a2e\u6a02\u89c0\u4e26\u4e0d\u81ea\u52d5\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u9762\u81e8\u5916\u90e8\u60c5\u7dd2\u8d70\u5f31\u8207\u4f30\u503c\u7d00\u5f8b\u6536\u7dca\u7684\u96e2\u5cb8\u6d88\u8cbb\u5fc5\u9700\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u98db\u9db4\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u8207\u4eba\u53e3\u7d50\u69cb\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u54c1\u724c\u80fd\u5920\u812b\u96e2\u9019\u4e00\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u570b\u5bb6\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c2023 \u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u81f3\u7d04 900 \u842c\uff0c\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u5404\u7701\u9f13\u52f5\u751f\u80b2\u8207\u80b2\u5152\u7684\u88dc\u8cbc\u653f\u7b56\u8fc4\u4eca\u6210\u6548\u4e0d\u4e00\u3002\u5341\u56db\u4e94\u898f\u5283\u5f37\u8abf\u4eba\u53e3\u7d20\u8cea\u8207\u5bb6\u5ead\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u4f46\u5b30\u5e7c\u5152\u5976\u7c89\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7dda\u7531\u51fa\u751f\u968a\u5217\u898f\u6a21\u8207\u8cfc\u8cb7\u983b\u7387\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u7684\u9ad8\u7aef\u5316\u66fe\u52a9\u76ca\u8a72\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b30\u5152\u6578\u91cf\u6e1b\u5c11\u8207\u65b0\u624b\u7236\u6bcd\u50f9\u683c\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u55ae\u4f4d\u5f48\u6027\u6b63\u671d\u4e0d\u5229\u65b9\u5411\u79fb\u52d5\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u64c1\u6709\u5f37\u5927\u5206\u92b7\u8207\u5730\u65b9\u5316\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f97\u66f4\u52aa\u529b\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u92b7\u91cf\u5e73\u7a69\uff0c\u5b9a\u50f9\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76e3\u7ba1\u5f37\u5316\u4e86\u884c\u696d\u6574\u5408\u30022023 \u5e74\u7531\u570b\u5bb6\u5e02\u5834\u76e3\u7763\u7ba1\u7406\u7e3d\u5c40\u5be6\u65bd\u7684\u5b30\u5e7c\u5152\u914d\u65b9\u4e73\u7c89\u65b0\u570b\u6a19\u8207\u518d\u8a3b\u518a\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u914d\u65b9\u8207\u6a19\u7c64\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u7372\u51c6\u7522\u54c1\u6578\u91cf\u4e26\u64e0\u58d3\u4e86\u5c0f\u578b\u5ee0\u5546\u3002\u7576\u5c40\u4ea6\u9075\u5faa\u300a\u5065\u5eb7\u4e2d\u570b\u300b\u76ee\u6a19\u8207\u6bcd\u4e73\u5582\u990a\u63a8\u5ee3\uff0c\u6536\u7dca\u4e86\u91ab\u9662\u5468\u908a\u7684\u71df\u92b7\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u5b98\u65b9\u7acb\u5834\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u54c1\u8cea\u3001\u66f4\u5c11 SKU\u3001\u8207\u66f4\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u5408\u898f\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u50cf\u98db\u9db4\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u898f\u6a21 incumbents\uff08\u73fe\u6709\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u696d\uff09\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u9053\u8b77\u57ce\u6cb3\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u610f\u5473\u8457\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7814\u767c\u8207\u5408\u898f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u6e1b\u5c11\u6fc0\u9032\u4fc3\u92b7\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u610f\u5716\u662f\u4fdd\u8b77\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4fdd\u8b77\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u5fc5\u9808\u901a\u904e\u6548\u7387\u8207\u7522\u54c1\u4fe1\u4efb\u4f86\u7372\u5f97\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5206\u92b7\u7aef\u4ecd\u7136\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u4f86\u81ea\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\u671f\u7684\u5eab\u5b58\u6eef\u58d3\u5728\u4f4e\u7dda\u57ce\u5e02\u6e05\u7406\u7de9\u6162\u3002\u4ee5\u6296\u97f3\u8207\u62fc\u591a\u591a\u70ba\u9996\u7684\u76f4\u64ad\u8207\u5718\u8cfc\u6e20\u9053\u5df2\u58d3\u7e2e\u4e86\u5feb\u901f\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u7684\u6e20\u9053\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u50b3\u7d71\u6bcd\u5b30\u5e97\u7db2\u7d61\u7684\u512a\u52e2\u2014\u2014\u9019\u662f\u570b\u7522\u5976\u7c89\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u652f\u67f1\u3002\u4fc3\u92b7\u5f37\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4fdd\u8b77\u5831\u544a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u92b7\u552e\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee3\u50f9\u6703\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u51fa\u8ca8\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u8fd4\u5229\u8a08\u63d0\u4e0a\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0d\u5916\u8cc7\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4efd\u984d\u64f4\u5f35\u80fd\u62b5\u6d88\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u5bb6\u5ead\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u5f35\u53ca\u7dda\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u6210\u672c\u512a\u52e2\u7684\u81ea\u6709\u54c1\u724c\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u5e73\u8861\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5b8f\u89c0\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u662f\u652f\u6301\u6027\u7684\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5de5\u4f5c\u6703\u8b70\u8207\u570b\u5bb6\u767c\u6539\u59d4\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6307\u5c0e\u4ecd\u5f37\u8abf\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8cbb\u6062\u5fa9\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u8207\u80b2\u5152\u57fa\u5efa\u3002\u5230 2035 \u5e74\u64f4\u5927\u5167\u9700\u7684\u7db1\u8981\u5c07\u6bcd\u5b30\u7528\u54c1\u5217\u70ba\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u985e\u5225\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u7d44\u5408\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u4f9b\u7d66\u9762\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u80fd\u63d0\u5347\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u6539\u9769\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u793e\u4fdd\u53ef\u643a\u5e36\u6027\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u5bb6\u5ead\u6559\u80b2\u81ea\u4ed8\u8cbb\u7528\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u653e\u5bec\u6236\u7c4d\u2014\u2014\u9032\u5c55\u7de9\u6162\u3002\u570b\u4f01\u6539\u9769\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e94\u5e74\u898f\u5283\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4e3b\u984c\uff0c\u5c07\u8cc7\u672c\u5c0e\u5411\u6230\u7565\u6027\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u76f4\u63a5\u6539\u5584\u5bb6\u5ead\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u70ba\u589e\u9577\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e95\u7dda\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e36\u4f86\u80fd\u8b93\u6240\u6709\u5fc5\u9700\u54c1\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e0a\u884c\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u3002<\/p>\n
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