{"id":591865,"date":"2025-09-08T06:49:53","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T13:49:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/stagflation-lite\/"},"modified":"2025-09-08T06:49:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T13:49:53","slug":"stagflation-lite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/09\/stagflation-lite\/","title":{"rendered":"Stagflation Lite \u662f\u7cfb\u7d71\u6084\u7136\u5d29\u89e3\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5982\u679c\u300c\u8f15\u5ea6\u300d\u662f\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u6eef\u8139\u7248\u672c\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\uff1f\u7576\u901a\u81a8\u9ad8\u5230\u4fb5\u8755\u5be6\u8cea\u6240\u5f97\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u4e0d\u9ad8\u5230\u8feb\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u8fc5\u901f\u6539\u8b8a\u6642\uff0c\u7cfb\u7d71\u5b78\u6703\u8207\u50b7\u5bb3\u5171\u8655\u3002\u9019\u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u95dc stagflation-lite \u80cc\u666f\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u6f5b\u53f0\u8a5e\uff1a\u53ea\u8981\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5b9a\u50f9\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c31\u80fd\u5016\u5b58\u3002\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u52d9\u5be6\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9020\u6210\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u9677\u9631\u3002\u5b9a\u50f9\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u6cd5\u5247\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u9031\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u662f\u6558\u4e8b\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u7d50\u69cb\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u526f\u7522\u54c1\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fc5\u901f\u9006\u8f49\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u5b83\u5728\u4f4e\u6210\u9577\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u9006\u8f49\u6642\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u54ea\u4e9b\u5047\u8a2d\u6bd4\u6578\u5b57\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u66f4\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8f15\u5ea6\u6eef\u8139\u4e26\u975e\u826f\u6027<\/h3>\n

\u9019\u7a2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u7248\u672c\u6703\u920d\u5316\u5200\u5203\u3002\u901a\u81a8\u8dd1\u5728\u76ee\u6a19\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u6210\u9577\u8dd1\u5728\u6f5b\u80fd\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u5bb6\u5ead\u611f\u89ba\u66f4\u8ca7\u7aae\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u540d\u76ee\u85aa\u8cc7\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6578\u5f9e\u908a\u7de3\u88ab\u58d3\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6d88\u8017\u5f0f\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u8ca1\u52d9\u9577\u56e0\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u9ad8\u800c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u88ab\u8d64\u5b57\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u9650\u5236\u3002\u8150\u8755\u50cf\u6a4b\u4e0a\u7684\u9e7d\u2014\u2014\u6bcf\u5929\u770b\u4f3c\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u91cd\u578b\u5361\u8eca\u627e\u5230\u90a3\u9053\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u63a5\u7e2b\u3002\u4eba\u5011\u904e\u5ea6\u4f7f\u75281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u985e\u6bd4\uff0cTyler Cowen \u8aaa\u76ee\u524d\u901a\u81a8\u4e0d\u662f1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u90a3\u7a2e\u898f\u6a21\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6559\u8a13\u4e0d\u662f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u994b\u8ff4\u8def\u3002\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u52a0\u4e0a\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u9f13\u52f5\u4fdd\u8b77\u5229\u6f64\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u53c8\u6703\u7834\u58de\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u66f4\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u6210\u9577\u548c\u66f4\u591a\u4fdd\u8b77\u5229\u6f64\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u4f60\u7121\u6cd5\u900f\u904e\u524a\u6e1b\u4f86\u9054\u6210\u8907\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b9a\u50f9\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u6703\u8017\u640d\u7684\u8cc7\u7522<\/h3>\n

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\u95dc\u7a05\u628a\u6469\u64e6\u8b8a\u6210\u71b1\u91cf<\/h3>\n

\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b78\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u500b\u4e7e\u6de8\u7684\u96b1\u55bb\uff1a\u6469\u64e6\u628a\u6709\u7528\u80fd\u91cf\u8f49\u6210\u5ee2\u71b1\u3002\u95dc\u7a05\u5c31\u662f\u6469\u64e6\u3002\u5b83\u63d0\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6539\u9053\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u4e26\u58d3\u6291\u8cbf\u6613\u91cf\u3002\u5728\u5f37\u52c1\u6210\u9577\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5438\u6536\u5b83\u3002\u5728\u505c\u6eef\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u6703\u8868\u73fe\u70ba\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u4f46\u541e\u5410\u91cf\u75b2\u5f31\u3002Bill Dudley \u8b66\u544a\u904e\uff0c\u91cd\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7d44\u5408\u6709\u5c0e\u81f4\u8870\u9000\u52a0\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002Greg Daco \u56e0\u70ba\u76f8\u540c\u7406\u7531\u7a31\u6eef\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u70ba\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff1a\u908a\u5883\u7a05\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u7a05\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u6a5f\u5668\u3002\u5982\u679c\u898f\u5247\u80fd\u7531\u884c\u653f\u547d\u4ee4\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u9078\u64c7\u50f9\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u4f01\u696d\u9078\u64c7\u7b49\u5f85\u3002\u7b49\u5f85\u662f\u507d\u88dd\u6210\u8b39\u614e\u7684\u6210\u9577\u6bba\u624b\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u4f9b\u7d66\u7aef\u6295\u8cc7\u2014\u2014\u5c0d\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u89e3\u85e5\u2014\u2014\u5728\u6700\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6642\u523b\u88ab\u9913\u6b7b\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u662f\uff1a\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3001\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u628a\u75c7\u72c0\u548c\u6210\u56e0\u6df7\u6dc6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8faf\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0d\u662f\u5b89\u6170\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u6821\u6e96<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u570d\u7e5e\u4e2d\u9593\u8def\u5f91\u5efa\u69cb\u6558\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e0d\u662f1970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u6642\u4ee3\u3002\u597d\u5427\u3002\u4f46\u9ad4\u5236\u98a8\u96aa\u95dc\u4e4e\u7684\u662f\u6821\u6e96\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6a19\u7c64\u3002\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u6307\u6a19\u8b1b\u8ff0\u4e0d\u540c\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\u5411\u4e0a\u6f02\u79fb\uff1b\u6709\u4e9b\u5247\u6c92\u6709\u3002Varghese \u6307\u51fa\u9019\u7a2e\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6a21\u578b\u8aa4\u5dee\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u7528\u535a\u5f08\u8ad6\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u904a\u6232\uff1a\u7576\u73a9\u5bb6\u4e0d\u5171\u4eab\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6642\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u5206\u5c94\u3002\u9019\u900f\u904e\u70ba\u932f\u8aa4\u7a81\u767c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u5927\u773e\u4ea4\u6613\u5275\u9020\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\u8b8a\u7570\u6027\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u88ab\u9650\u5236\u4f4f\u4e86\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u901a\u81a8\u8207\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8b8a\u7570\u6703\u4fb5\u8755\u898f\u5283\u6642\u9650\u3001\u653e\u5927\u5eab\u5b58\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u4f60\u6700\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u6642\u5019\u63d0\u9ad8\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u300260-40 \u914d\u7f6e\u57282022\u5e74\u5b78\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u3002\u5982\u679c stagflation lite \u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u9ad4\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u5207\u63db\uff0c\u8b93\u5206\u6563\u98a8\u96aa\u8005\u8868\u73fe\u5f97\u50cf\u653e\u5927\u5668\u3002\u80a5\u5c3e\u98a8\u96aa\u5c31\u85cf\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u5207\u63db\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u6f64\u795e\u8a71\u9047\u4e0a\u6307\u6578\u96c6\u4e2d<\/h3>\n

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\u8a98\u56e0\u8207\u9ed8\u5951\u5354\u8abf\u7684\u5d29\u89e3<\/h3>\n

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