{"id":594765,"date":"2025-09-24T00:36:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T07:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/i-expect-an-80-crash-warns-black-swan-fund-manager\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T00:36:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T07:36:37","slug":"%e5%8d%b1%e8%a8%80%e8%81%b3%e8%81%bd%ef%bc%9f%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e6%88%96%e8%bf%8e%e6%ad%b7%e5%8f%b2%e6%80%a7%e5%b4%a9%e7%9b%a4%ef%bc%8c%e6%9a%b4%e8%b7%8c80%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/09\/%e5%8d%b1%e8%a8%80%e8%81%b3%e8%81%bd%ef%bc%9f%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e6%88%96%e8%bf%8e%e6%ad%b7%e5%8f%b2%e6%80%a7%e5%b4%a9%e7%9b%a4%ef%bc%8c%e6%9a%b4%e8%b7%8c80%ef%bc%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5371\u8a00\u8073\u807d\uff1f\u7f8e\u80a1\u6216\u8fce\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c\u66b4\u8dcc80%\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e0a\u5468\u5ba3\u4f48\u964d\u606f\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u672c\u9031\u4e00\u5237\u65b0\u6b77\u53f2\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u5e74\u5167\u6f32\u5e45\u5df2\u64f4\u5927\u81f3\u7d0413%\u3002Universa Investments\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8cc7\u5b98Mark Spitznagel\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u72c2\u71b1\u6216\u63a8\u52d5\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u5f9e\u7d046653\u9ede\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f3220%\uff0c\u7a81\u78348000\u9ede\u5927\u95dc\u3002\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u6697\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u75b2\u8edf\uff0c\u9019\u6709\u671b\u70ba\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6f32\u52e2\u6ce8\u5165\u65b0\u52d5\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0cSpitznagel\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u9019\u5834\u72c2\u6b61\u7d42\u5c07\u4ee5\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u5d29\u76e4\u544a\u7d42\uff0c\u898f\u6a21\u582a\u6bd41929\u5e74\u5f15\u767c\u5168\u7403\u8870\u9000\u7684\u80a1\u707d\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u63a1\u8a2a\u4e2d\u76f4\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u9810\u8a08\u6703\u51fa\u73fe80%\u7684\u66b4\u8dcc\u2026\u2026\u4f46\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u7d93\u6b77\u4e00\u5834\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u3001\u72c2\u71b1\u7684\u3001\u53f2\u8a69\u7d1a\u7684\u66b4\u6f32\u3002\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u8655\u5728\u9019\u5834\u66b4\u6f32\u7684\u4e2d\u6bb5\u800c\u975e\u5c3e\u8072\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6700\u7d42\u5c07\u7121\u6cd5\u627f\u53d7\u4ecd\u8655\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7e3d\u90e8\u4f4d\u65bc\u9081\u963f\u5bc6\u7684Universa\u57fa\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u898f\u6a21\u9054200\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5c08\u7cbe\u4e8e\u901a\u904e\u4fe1\u7528\u9055\u7d04\u4e92\u63db\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u6b0a\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u5c0d\u6c96\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u8a72\u57fa\u91d12007\u5e74\u6210\u7acb\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747\u8cc7\u672c\u56de\u5831\u7387\u8d85100%\uff0c2020\u5e74\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u66f4\u6191\u85c9\u5e02\u5834\u5de8\u9707\u5be6\u73fe\u5de8\u984d\u6536\u76ca\u3002Spitznagel\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5ba2\u6236\u5c07Universa\u8996\u70ba\u201c\u5e02\u5834\u6700\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u8868\u9054\u201d\uff0c\u537b\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u70ba\u52a0\u5009\u7684\u4fdd\u96aa\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6096\u8ad6\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Spitznagel\u53bb\u5e74\u66fe\u63d0\u9192\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u628a\u63e1\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u201c\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u201d\u9810\u671f\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u8a00\u72c2\u71b1\u60c5\u7dd2\u5c07\u5728\u5d29\u76e4\u524d\u6301\u7e8c\u7a4d\u805a\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8fc4\u4eca\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u5805\u6301\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c2008\u5e74\u5f8c\u8d85\u5bec\u9b06\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\u53ca\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u5168\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\u5c1a\u672a\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u6d88\u5316\u3002\u201c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u770b\u5230\u5f8c\u679c\u2026\u2026\u9019\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e0a\u5468\u5ba3\u4f48\u964d\u606f\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u672c\u9031\u4e00\u5237\u65b0\u6b77\u53f2\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u5e74\u5167\u6f32\u5e45\u5df2\u64f4\u5927\u81f3\u7d0413%\u3002Universa  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":555794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[431],"tags":[2416,2165,2126,2162],"class_list":{"0":"post-594765","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-trends-strategies-zh-hant","8":"tag-u-s-stocks-zh-hant","9":"tag--zh-hant","11":"tag-2162","12":"sectors-technology-zh-hant","13":"locations-us-zh-hant"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594765"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594765\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":594768,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594765\/revisions\/594768"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/555794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}