{"id":595054,"date":"2025-09-25T06:34:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T13:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=595054"},"modified":"2025-09-25T06:34:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T13:34:13","slug":"miran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/09\/miran\/","title":{"rendered":"Miran \u8aaa\u5229\u7387\u592a\u7dca\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6703\u66f4\u5feb\u964d\u606f\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b Stephen Miran \u6b63\u5728\u6566\u4fc3\u66f4\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u66f4\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u7576\u7d93\u6fdf\u964d\u6eab\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u7d93\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u66f2\u7dda\u3002\u4ed6\u7a31\u653f\u7b56\u300c\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u9084\u7dca\u300d\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5f9e\u7d04 4.1% \u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1 2.5%\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u5c0d\u5c31\u696d\u548c\u6210\u9577\u9020\u6210\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u640d\u5bb3\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u767c\u751f\u5728\u4ed6\u65bc\u4e5d\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u7368\u81ea\u6295\u4e0b\u7570\u8b70\u7968\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4ed6\u504f\u597d\u534a\u78bc\u7684\u964d\u5e45\uff0c\u800c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u662f\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u78bc\u7684\u52d5\u4f5c\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u5728\u5728\u76e4\u7b97\u4ed6\u5728\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u5167\u7684\u4e3b\u5f35\u662f\u5426\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u727d\u5f15\u529b\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u90a3\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u8b8a\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3001\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8def\u5f91\u3002<\/p>\n

Miran \u70ba\u901f\u5ea6\u8ad6\u8ff0<\/h3>\n

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\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8207 Fed \u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613<\/h3>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u807d\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u8072\u97f3\u3002\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u5df2\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u5e74\u7d42\u524d\u66f4\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u5bec\u9b06\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u7aef\u516c\u50b5\u66f2\u7dda\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u6697\u793a Fed \u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u6307\u5f15\u66f4\u5feb\u8f49\u5411\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u90fd\u5f88\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5169\u5e74\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u653f\u7b56\u9810\u671f\u7684\u9810\u8a2d\u6674\u96e8\u8868\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u90a3\u7a2e\u518d\u6821\u6e96\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u606f\u5dee\u7e2e\u7a84\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52e2\u4e5f\u5448\u73fe\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u82e5\u4ed6\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u5728 Fed \u5167\u52dd\u51fa\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5247\u5c07\u9019\u8996\u70ba\u5ef6\u9577\u4e45\u671f\u8207\u6210\u9577\u66dd\u96aa\u7684\u7da0\u71c8\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u7b46\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef0\u8cf4\u7684\u662f\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8981\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u96f6\u661f\u7684\u7570\u8b70\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u2500\u2500\u7279\u5225\u662f\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\u3001\u5c45\u4f4f\u6210\u672c\uff08shelter\uff09\u964d\u6eab\u4ee5\u53ca\u8077\u7f3a\u6578\u2500\u2500\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u61f7\u7591 Fed \u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u62bc\u6ce8\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u7570\u8b70\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u8cea\u7591<\/h3>\n

Miran \u504f\u597d\u534a\u78bc\u964d\u606f\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6210\u70ba\u4e5d\u6708\u6c7a\u8b70\u4e2d\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u7570\u8b70\u8005\uff0c\u51f8\u986f\u51fa\u4ed6\u9858\u610f\u8d70\u5230\u591a\u524d\u9762\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u7acb\u5834\u5728\u91cd\u8996\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4e2d\u4e26\u4e0d\u5e38\u898b\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u517c\u4efb\u5ddd\u666e\u7e3d\u7d71\uff08Donald Trump\uff09\u9ad8\u5c64\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7684\u96d9\u91cd\u8eab\u5206\u4e5f\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u95dc\u65bc\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u8faf\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u5df2\u56de\u64ca\uff0c\u7a31\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u767d\u5bae\u6307\u793a\u3002\u5149\u5b78\u6548\u679c\u4ecd\u7136\u91cd\u8981\u3002Fed \u7684\u6b0a\u5a01\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5176\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u514d\u65bc\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9810\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u4e0a\u3002\u5982\u679c Miran \u7684\u8b70\u7a0b\u88ab\u7b49\u540c\u70ba\u4f86\u81ea\u8cd3\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9e\u5927\u9053\uff08Pennsylvania Avenue\uff09\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u4ee4\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u5c0d\u5176\u6253\u6298\u3002\u5982\u679c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u8cc7\u6599\u5c0d\u4e0b\u6ed1\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5224\u8b80\uff0c\u5247\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u4fb5\u8755\u6a5f\u69cb\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u6539\u8b8a FOMC \u7684\u91cd\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u652f\u6301 2.5% \u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u5b78<\/h3>\n

\u82e5\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1 2.5%\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u81a8\u6301\u7e8c\u964d\u6eab\u6642\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\u3002\u90a3\u500b\u7d42\u9ede\u8207\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u5287\u672c\u4e00\u81f4\uff1a\u901a\u81a8\u88ab\u56fa\u5b88\u3001\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\u3001\u4fe1\u8cb8\u7ba1\u9053\u4e0d\u904e\u5ea6\u7dca\u7e43\u3002Miran \u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u501a\u91cd\u4f9b\u7d66\u9762\u6539\u5584\u2500\u2500\u66f4\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u8005\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u63a1\u7528\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\u3001\u5c45\u4f4f\u6210\u672c\u7de9\u548c\u2500\u2500\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u6d88\u9000\u7684\u540c\u6642\u652f\u6490\u6210\u9577\u3002\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5177\u6709\u975e\u5c0d\u7a31\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u901a\u81a8\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u7dca\u7e2e\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u6703\u900f\u904e\u5f8c\u9580\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u90a3\u5c07\u58d3\u7e2e\u50f1\u7528\u3001\u63a8\u9ad8\u9055\u7d04\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\u640d\u5bb3\u524d\u6253\u64ca\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u90e8\u9580\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u5148\u767c\u6027\u5bec\u9b06\u80fd\u9632\u6b62\u7d93\u6fdf\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5728\u6210\u9577\u505c\u64fa\u5f8c\u518d\u6025\u65bc\u91cd\u555f\u5f15\u64ce\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u5c0d\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u610f\u6db5<\/h3>\n

\u82e5 Miran \u7372\u5f97\u9032\u5c55\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u986f\u800c\u6613\u898b\u3002\u8f03\u9577\u4e45\u671f\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u901a\u8a0a\u670d\u52d9\u80a1\u2500\u2500\u4f8b\u5982 AAPL\u3001MSFT\u3001GOOGL\u2500\u2500\u901a\u5e38\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u3002\u7576\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8207\u71df\u5efa\u5546\u4e5f\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u7d13\u89e3\u3002\u6c7d\u8eca\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u8207\u8cc7\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u8005\uff08\u5305\u542b Tesla\uff09\u5c0d\u878d\u8cc7\u6210\u672c\u8207\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5340\u57df\u6027\u9280\u884c\u8207\u50cf JPMorgan \u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5927\u578b\u653e\u6b3e\u884c\u82e5\u66f2\u7dda\u8b8a\u5f97\u8f03\u6eab\u548c\uff0c\u4e14\u80fd\u6e1b\u8f15\u4fe1\u8cb8\u58d3\u529b\u800c\u4e0d\u58d3\u57ae\u6de8\u5229\u5dee\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u6b61\u8fce\u3002\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u4e7e\u6de8\u7684\u5bec\u9b06\u9031\u671f\u4e2d\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u5229\u5dee\u6536\u76ca\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u8edf\uff0c\u63d0\u5347\u8de8\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u9918\u3002\u53cd\u9762\u5247\u9808\u8b66\u60d5\uff1a\u82e5 Fed \u964d\u5f97\u592a\u5feb\u4e26\u91cd\u555f\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5c07\u9006\u8f49\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4f55 Miran \u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u4f9b\u7d66\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u53bb\u901a\u81a8\u2500\u2500\u50f9\u683c\u7de9\u548c\u800c\u975e\u9700\u6c42\u53d7\u5275\u2500\u2500\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u7e41\u69ae\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u81a8\u9df9\u6d3e\u7684\u9084\u64ca<\/h3>\n

\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u53cd\u99c1\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e26\u975e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u800c\u662f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u4e14\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u578b\u8207\u570b\u9632\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9700\u6c42\u4f7f\u9700\u6c42\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\u3002\u9df9\u6d3e\u6703\u6307\u51fa\u5de5\u8cc7\u4ecd\u7136\u5805\u633a\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u901a\u81a8\u4ecd\u7dca\uff0c\u4e14\u5c45\u4f4f\u6210\u672c\u53bb\u901a\u81a8\u53ef\u80fd\u505c\u6eef\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u904e\u5feb\u63a8\u5230 2.5% \u6703\u5192\u8457\u89e3\u958b\u9810\u671f\u4e26\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u91cd\u71c3\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u6709\u5c0d\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u82e5\u5e02\u5834\u628a Fed \u7684\u8209\u52d5\u5916\u63a8\u70ba\u4e00\u500b Fed put\uff08\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4fdd\u8b77\uff09\uff0c\u5c07\u9020\u6210\u932f\u8aa4\u6fc0\u52f5\u3002Miran \u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u53eb\u724c\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u6210\u9577\u7684\u69cb\u6210\u5df2\u767c\u751f\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u80fd\u5728\u64f4\u5145\u7522\u80fd\u7684\u540c\u6642\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u81a8\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u5c07\u5728\u7d30\u7dfb\u7684\u6578\u64da\u4e0a\u5b58\u4ea1\uff1a\u5c45\u4f4f\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u5916\u4e4b\u8d85\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u4f9b\u7d66\u8207\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u50f1\u7528\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u7de9\u885d\u5de5\u8cc7\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u7b56\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u884c\u52d5<\/h3>\n

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