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\u5e02\u5834\u8d8a\u8b93\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u8d8a\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u63f4\u5f15 1999 \u5e74\u4f86\u70ba\u665a\u671f\u7194\u65b7\u5f0f\u5927\u6f32\u80cc\u66f8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u5fd8\u4e86\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u5728\u6700\u5f8c\u516d\u500b\u6708\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9ad4\u7cfb\u5df2\u7d93\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u52a0\u901f\u4e0d\u662f\u5f37\u5ea6\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u7121\u5b89\u5168\u7db2\u7684\u8ca0\u8f09\u6e2c\u8a66\u3002<\/p>\n

1999\u5e74\u5230\u5e95\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc<\/h3>\n

\u90a3\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u771f\u6b63\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\uff1aNasdaq \u4e26\u975e\u5e73\u7a69\u6ed1\u5411 2000 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684\u9ad8\u9ede\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u885d\u4e0a\u53bb\u7684\u3002\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u81ea 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u8d77\u4e0a\u6f32\u8d85\u904e 400%\uff0c\u5728\u9802\u9ede\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u66f4\u662f\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u591a\u3002\u90a3\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u885d\u523a\u662f\u58d3\u529b\u6e2c\u8a66\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u9a57\u8b49\u3002\u8cc7\u672c\u8ffd\u9010\u6210\u9577\u6545\u4e8b\u4f46\u7f3a\u4e4f\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u3002\u50b3\u7d71\u4f30\u503c\u6aa2\u67e5\u88ab\u64f1\u7f6e\u3002\u5ee3\u6cdb\u6d41\u50b3\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6642\u4ee3\u5230\u4f86\uff0c\u820a\u898f\u5247\u5931\u6548\u3002\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u689d\u4ef6\u8207\u6613\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5e6b\u52a9\u6f64\u6ed1\u4e86\u8ecc\u9053\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u5c0d\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u69d3\u687f\u3001\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5f7c\u6b64\u8907\u5229\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6a4b\u958b\u59cb\u5171\u9cf4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u3001\u69d3\u687f\u8207\u53cd\u8eab\u5faa\u74b0<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u662f\u795e\u8aed\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u653e\u5927\u5668\u3002\u50f9\u683c\u5438\u5f15\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u63a8\u9ad8\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5faa\u74b0\u81ea\u6211\u5f37\u5316\u3002\u7576\u653f\u7b56\u5bec\u9b06\u6642\uff0c\u653e\u5927\u5668\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5e7e\u500b\u7d1a\u6578\u3002\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u50b5\u52d9\u64f4\u5f35\u3001\u5275\u6295\u652f\u7968\u8b8a\u5927\u3001\u6307\u6578\u7d0d\u5165\u628a\u66f4\u591a\u88ab\u52d5\u8cc7\u672c\u62c9\u5411\u76f8\u540c\u6a19\u7684\u30021990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7b26\u5408\u9019\u5957\u7bc4\u672c\u3002\u4eba\u5011\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e92\u806f\u7db2\u662f\u901a\u5f80\u7e41\u69ae\u7684\u55ae\u884c\u7968\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u6d41\u5165\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u4e26\u62db\u52df\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u5f92\u3002\u4f46\u653e\u5927\u6709\u7f3a\u9ede\u3002\u5c0f\u885d\u64ca\u8b8a\u6210\u5927\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u7fa4\u9ad4\u6301\u5009\u6210\u70ba\u55ae\u4e00\u5931\u6548\u9ede\u3002\u7528\u5de5\u7a0b\u8a9e\u8a00\u8aaa\uff0c\u7cfb\u7d71\u55aa\u5931\u5197\u9918\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u70ba\u4e86\u66f4\u5feb\u800c\u628a\u6a4b\u4e0a\u7684\u87ba\u6813\u62c6\u6389\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u8207\u300c\u5927\u50bb\u74dc\u5747\u8861\u300d<\/h3>\n

1999 \u5e74\u6700\u5f8c\u516d\u500b\u6708\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u8a72\u9031\u671f\u9f90\u5927\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7e3d\u6f32\u5e45\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5e38\u628a\u9019\u8aa4\u8a8d\u70ba\u5fc5\u7136\u3002\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4f4e\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u78b0\u5de7\u8cfa\u4e86\u4e00\u6ce2\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u88ab\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u8f49\u3002\u5982\u679c\u628a\u6ce1\u6cab\u5efa\u6a21\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u96a8\u50f9\u683c\u52a0\u901f\u800c\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u5247\u6bcf\u4e0a\u5347\u4e00\u6bb5\uff0c\u5d29\u76e4\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5c31\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u665a\u671f\u53cd\u5f48\u611f\u89ba\u6bd4\u5be6\u969b\u66f4\u523a\u6fc0\u3002\u5b83\u628a\u57fa\u7387\u61f7\u7591\u8005\u8b8a\u6210\u52d5\u91cf\u8ffd\u9010\u8005\uff0c\u8aa4\u628a\u8fd1\u671f\u901f\u5ea6\u7576\u4f5c\u98a8\u96aa\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u51f8\u6027\u56de\u5831\u638c\u63e1\u5728\u80fd\u6bd4\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u66f4\u5feb\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u5c11\u6578\u4eba\u80fd\u8d0f\u7684\u904a\u6232\u3002\u5176\u9918\u7684\u4eba\u63e1\u8457\u58d3\u7e2e\u7684\u5f48\u7c27\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d0f\u5bb6\u901a\u5403\u6558\u4e8b\u4e0b\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/h3>\n

\u6ce1\u6cab\u9760\u5171\u540c\u77e5\u8b58\u904b\u884c\u3002\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u4f30\u503c\u88ab\u62c9\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u5225\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u3002\u8ced\u6ce8\u4e0d\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\u9019\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u7f8e\u4eba\u6bd4\u8cfd\u3002\u5728 1999 \u5e74\uff0c\u6309\u6708\u8a55\u4f30\u59d4\u8a17\u7684\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u5fc5\u9808\u7dad\u6301\u5168\u5009\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u9762\u81e8\u8077\u6daf\u6bc0\u6ec5\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f greater-fool \u5747\u8861\u5982\u4f55\u81ea\u6211\u7a69\u5b9a\u2014\u2014\u76f4\u5230\u5b83\u4e0d\u518d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u7576\u4f60\u6709\u5b63\u5ea6\u8d16\u56de\u548c\u6bcf\u65e5\u4f30\u503c\u6642\uff0c\u8d8a\u591a\u4eba\u63a5\u8fd1\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u9580\u4e0d\u6703\u8b8a\u5bec\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8b8a\u7a84\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4f55\u55ae\u4e00\u5931\u671b\u6216\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f15\u767c\u6e05\u7b97\u9023\u9396\u3002\u7194\u65b7\u5f0f\u4e0a\u6f32\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u689d\u5bec\u95ca\u516c\u8def\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u56de\u8abf\u6642\u8b8a\u6210\u6f0f\u6597\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e26\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u514d\u75ab\u529b<\/h3>\n

\u6bcf\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u90fd\u6709\u770b\u4f3c\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u30021990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u662f\u4e92\u806f\u7db2\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u6b64\u985e\u4e3b\u5f35\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u88ab\u932f\u8aa4\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002\u4eba\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u5728\u65bc\u5f9e\u65e9\u671f\u7db2\u7d61\u6548\u61c9\u5916\u63a8\u51fa\u6c38\u4e45\u58df\u65b7\uff0c\u4e26\u5fd8\u8a18\u6210\u9577\u8207\u5229\u6f64\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002\u5c11\u6578\u5e73\u53f0\u6700\u7d42\u53d6\u5f97\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6c92\u6709\u3002\u6559\u8a13\u4e0d\u662f\u5275\u65b0\u4e0d\u503c\u9322\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8cc7\u672c\u5e02\u5834\u5e38\u5e38\u70ba\u4e86\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5728\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6642\u9593\u4ed8\u51fa\u904e\u9ad8\u4ee3\u50f9\u3002\u60f3\u60f3\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\u524d\u7684\u9435\u8def\u71b1\u6f6e\uff1a\u592a\u591a\u8ecc\u9053\u92ea\u5f97\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u81f4\u547d\uff0c\u4f46\u5f8c\u4f86\u5c0d\u793e\u6703\u6709\u751f\u7522\u529b\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cc7\u52a9\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u537b\u540c\u6642\u58d3\u57ae\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u6301\u6709\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

Antifragility Is Not Market Immunity<\/h3>\n

\u6ce1\u6cab\u53ef\u4ee5\u5efa\u69cb\u6709\u7528\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u5bec\u983b\u3001\u7a0b\u5f0f\u78bc\u3001\u9435\u8ecc\u2014\u2014\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u7522\u6703\u6bd4\u72c2\u71b1\u6301\u4e45\u3002\u4f46\u4e0d\u8981\u628a\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6df7\u70ba\u4e00\u8ac7\u3002\u751f\u614b\u7cfb\u7d71\u5f9e\u904e\u5ea6\u5efa\u8a2d\u8207\u5275\u9020\u6027\u6bc0\u6ec5\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u55ae\u4e00\u5009\u4f4d\u4e0d\u6703\u3002\u5728 2000 \u5230 2002 \u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u9ad8\u98db\u8005\u4e0b\u8dcc 70% \u5230 100%\uff0c\u518d\u4e5f\u6c92\u56de\u4f86\u3002\u5c11\u6578\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u591a\u5e74\u5f8c\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u932f\u8aa4\u5728\u65bc\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u8aa4\uff1a\u900f\u904e\u5c11\u6578\u8d0f\u5bb6\u91cd\u8ff0\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5893\u5730\u3002\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5047\u8a2d\u5893\u5730\u5b58\u5728\u4e26\u76f8\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u5009\u4f4d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u9700\u8981\u7fa4\u773e\u7dad\u6301\u4ea2\u596e\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u5411\u660e\u5929\u501f\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6614\u65e5\u8207\u7576\u4e0b\uff1a\u76f8\u540c\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5916\u6bbc<\/h3>\n

\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6558\u4e8b\u8f09\u9ad4\u4e0d\u540c\u2014\u2014AI \u7684\u898f\u6a21\u7d93\u6fdf\u53d6\u4ee3\u64a5\u865f\u4e0a\u7db2\u7684\u5922\u60f3\u3001\u96f6\u50ad\u91d1\u4ea4\u6613\u53d6\u4ee3\u7dda\u4e0a\u5238\u5546\u5148\u9a45\u3001\u88ab\u52d5\u8cc7\u91d1\u898f\u6a21\u9054\u5230 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5f9e\u672a\u898b\u904e\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u4f46\u5e95\u5c64\u5f15\u64ce\u662f\u719f\u6089\u7684\uff1a\u6613\u5f97\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u3001\u5c07\u6210\u9577\u54c1\u724c\u5316\u70ba\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6a5f\u69cb\u58d3\u529b\u8981\u6c42\u8207\u7fa4\u9ad4\u540c\u5728\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u982d\u90e8\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5f37\uff0c\u5229\u6f64\u4e5f\u66f4\u5177\u9ad4\u3002\u90a3\u6539\u8b8a\u7684\u662f\u516c\u5141\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u6539\u8b8a\u7684\u662f\u7fa4\u9ad4\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u7576\u5c0f\u7fa4\u9ad4\u627f\u64d4\u5927\u578b\u6307\u6578\u800c\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2\u8dd1\u8d0f\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6642\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u5f62\u72c0\u53c8\u958b\u59cb\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf 1999 \u5e74\u3002\u8868\u9762\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\u65b0\u7684\uff1b\u7ba1\u8def\u4e0d\u662f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u72c2\u71b1\u9802\u9ede\u4e0b\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u7d00\u5f8b<\/h3>\n

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