\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u5982\u4eca\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u4e0b\u5348\u5de6\u53f3\u64fa\u52d5 1000 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u503c\uff1f\u5728\u6700\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e26\u975e\u60c5\u7dd2\u4e4b\u8b0e\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u5728\u8b8a\u5f97\u65e2\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u53c8\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u5f8c\u7684\u7522\u7269\u3002\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8207 ETF \u5c07\u98a8\u96aa\u96c6\u4e2d\u5230\u4e00\u5c0f\u64ae\u56de\u994b\u8ff4\u8def\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u8ca1\u5831\u5b63\u5247\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u885d\u64ca\u8b8a\u6210\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u53cd\u5f48\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u97cc\u6027\uff1b\u5176\u4e0b\u65b9\uff0c\u537b\u50cf\u4e00\u5ea7\u63a5\u8fd1\u5171\u632f\u7684\u6a4b\u6a11\u822c\u69cb\u7bc9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8d85\u77ed\u671f\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u8208\u8d77\u4f7f\u50f9\u683c\u6210\u70ba\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7684\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u3002\u7576\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6e67\u5165\u5728\u6578\u65e5\u6216\u6578\u5c0f\u6642\u5167\u5230\u671f\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u6216\u8ce3\u6b0a\u6642\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u9019\u4e9b\u5951\u7d04\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5fc5\u9808\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4f86\u7a4d\u6975\u907f\u96aa\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u907f\u96aa\u6703\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u5c0d\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff08\u5373 gamma\uff09\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u5230\u671f\u6642\u8b8a\u52d5\u6700\u5feb\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6a5f\u68b0\u5f0f\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u5668\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u5c0f\u984d\u8cb7\u5165\u8cb7\u6b0a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u62c9\u62ac\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8cb7\u76e4\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u3002\u53cd\u5411\u60c5\u6cc1\u4ea6\u7136\uff0c\u7d1a\u806f\u6703\u5411\u4e0b\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u8ca1\u5831\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u5e38\u5e38\u98c6\u5347\u7136\u5f8c\u5d29\u584c\uff1b\u4f46\u570d\u7e5e\u9019\u4e9b\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5c11\u6578\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u4e2d\u9020\u6210\u6578\u767e\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u8b8a\u52d5\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5247\u95dc\u65bc\u6295\u6a5f\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u662f\u98db\u884c\u54e1\u5728\u8207\u98db\u6a5f\u640f\u9b25\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u99d5\u99db\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n
ETF \u8207\u6307\u6578\u57fa\u91d1\u5df2\u5c07\u6700\u5927\u6b0a\u91cd\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8b8a\u6210\u627f\u91cd\u6a11\u3002\u5927\u7d04\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684 S&P 500 \u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5c11\u6578\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u79d1\u6280\u95dc\u806f\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u5165\u88ab\u52d5\u57fa\u91d1\u90fd\u6703\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8cb7\u5165\u8a72\u7c43\u5b50\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u50f9\u683c\u6216\u98a8\u96aa\u70ba\u4f55\uff1b\u6bcf\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u51fa\u5247\u8ce3\u51fa\u76f8\u540c\u90e8\u4f4d\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u7d50\u69cb\u5728\u5e73\u975c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7fa4\u773e\u8f49\u5411\u6642\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u56e0\u5b50\u8f2a\u52d5\u8207\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u907f\u96aa\u5982\u4eca\u90fd\u570d\u7e5e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5e7e\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u8f49\u52d5\u3002\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5206\u6563\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u55ae\u4e00\u8ca1\u5831\u4e0d\u53ca\u9810\u671f\u6216\u6307\u5f15\u4e0b\u4fee\u89f8\u767c\u6642\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u6548\u61c9\u53cd\u5411\u904b\u4f5c\u3002\u9810\u671f\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u6216\u6301\u5009\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u6703\u4f7f\u91cd\u91cf\u7d1a\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u7522\u751f\u5927\u5e45\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u6307\u6578\u8ddf\u8457\u8d70\u3002\u5c3e\u5df4\u4e0d\u518d\u6416\u72d7\uff1b\u72d7\u6210\u4e86\u5c3e\u5df4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u503c\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u96fb\u5b50\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u5c07\u6d3b\u52d5\u8f49\u5230\u5728\u58d3\u529b\u521d\u73fe\u6642\u6703\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5834\u57df\u3002\u5834\u5916\u5167\u90e8\u64ae\u5408\u8207\u6697\u6c60\u5728\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\u524d\u6709\u6548\u914d\u5c0d\u8a02\u55ae\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5831\u50f9\u9000\u7e2e\u3001\u53ef\u898b\u59d4\u8a17\u7c3f\u8b8a\u8584\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5eab\u85cf\u80a1\u7684\u8cb7\u76e4\u5e38\u662f\u4e00\u80a1\u7a69\u5b9a\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8ca1\u5831\u524d\u7684\u7981\u6b62\u8cb7\u56de\u671f\u5f80\u5f80\u6c89\u5bc2\u3002\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u4e26\u975e\u5f48\u6027\u5341\u8db3\u3002\u98a8\u96aa\u50f9\u503c\uff08VaR\uff09\u9650\u5236\u8feb\u4f7f\u5728\u8d70\u5f31\u6642\u53bb\u98a8\u96aa\u5316\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7d93\u5178\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u5931\u6548\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u7cfb\u7d71\u70ba\u5e73\u5747\u8ca0\u8f09\u8a2d\u8a08\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u908a\u7de3\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u5728\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u6700\u9ad8\u6642\u3002\u7576\u5927\u578b\u516c\u53f8\u516c\u5e03\u696d\u7e3e\uff0c\u6216\u7576\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a gamma \u7ffb\u8f49\u5728\u5348\u9593\u89f8\u767c\u6642\uff0c\u6c23\u6ce1\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u770b\u4f3c\u6df1\u6c34\u7684\u6c60\u5858\uff0c\u539f\u4f86\u53ea\u662f\u6c34\u5751\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u884c\u70ba\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9051\u591a\u8b93\u5730\u6a5f\u68b0\u5316\u3002\u5728 Keynes \u5f0f\u7684\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u6bd4\u8cfd\u300d\u4e2d\uff0c\u52dd\u5229\u4e4b\u8209\u662f\u53bb\u731c\u8a55\u59d4\u6703\u731c\u8a55\u59d4\u6703\u6703\u559c\u6b61\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8a55\u59d4\u662f\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u6563\u6236\u5f9e\u9078\u80a1\u8f49\u5411\u77ed\u671f\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u5c0b\u6c42\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u51f8\u6027\u56de\u5831\u3002\u6578\u5b78\u6beb\u4e0d\u5bec\u5bb9\uff1a\u5c0f\u5e45\u512a\u52e2\u6703\u8907\u5229\uff1b\u5c0f\u5e45\u932f\u8aa4\u5247\u8907\u5229\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6578\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u771f\u5be6\u6a5f\u7387\u904e\u5ea6\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u800c\u7834\u7522\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6bd4\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u8981\u77ed\u3002\u505a\u7a7a\u8005\u4e5f\u6703\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\uff1a\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u8d70\u5f31\u6642\u52a0\u78bc\uff0c\u5728\u8d70\u5f37\u6642\u88ab\u64e0\u58d3\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u884c\u70ba\u90fd\u52a9\u9577\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u5728\u6182\u616e\u7684\u7246\u4e0a\u6500\u5347\uff0c\u4e26\u6cbf\u8457\u624b\u6276\u68af\u822c\u7684\u8ecc\u9053\u5d29\u843d\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u52d5\u614b\u3002\u7fa4\u9ad4\u6301\u5009\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u5e38\u5448\u73fe\u53cd\u5411\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u56e0\u7fa4\u773e\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7d50\u69cb\u8feb\u4f7f\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u6642\u9593\u505a\u76f8\u540c\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u5c07\u6301\u5009\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u5011\u898b\u904e\u9019\u985e\u6232\u78bc\u7684\u8b8a\u9ad4\u30021987 \u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4fdd\u96aa\u627f\u8afe\u900f\u904e\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u4f86\u5e73\u6ed1\u822a\u5411\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u8a66\u5716\u5f9e\u540c\u4e00\u6247\u9580\u96e2\u5834\u624d\u5931\u6548\u30022010 \u5e74\u9583\u5d29\u63ed\u9732\u4e86\u7576\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u64a4\u624b\u6642\uff0c\u59d4\u8a17\u7c3f\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u30022018 \u5e74\uff0c\u77ed\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u7522\u54c1\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u5167\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u984d\u7684\u6ea2\u50f9\u6536\u5272\u4ee5\u5de8\u5927\u7206\u70b8\u6536\u5834\u3002\u8ff7\u56e0\u80a1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u986f\u793a\u96c6\u4e2d\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6d3b\u52d5\u8207\u64c1\u64e0\u7684\u653e\u7a7a\u90e8\u4f4d\u80fd\u5c07\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u96e2\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u8a31\u591a\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u4e0d\u662f\u8a3b\u8173\uff1b\u5b83\u5011\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5e73\u975c\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u6703\u8b8a\u6210\u9806\u5468\u671f\u3002\u6bcf\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u800c\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff1a\u69d3\u687f\u85cf\u5728\u7d50\u69cb\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n
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