{"id":601828,"date":"2025-11-04T11:43:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T19:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=601828"},"modified":"2025-11-04T11:43:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T19:43:16","slug":"gs-solomon-10-20-ms-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/11\/gs-solomon-10-20-ms-pick\/","title":{"rendered":"GS \u57f7\u884c\u9577 Solomon \u9810\u898b\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc 10\u201320%\uff1bMS \u7684 Pick \u6301\u8b39\u614e\u614b\u5ea6"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5728 Goldman Sachs \u57f7\u884c\u9577 David Solomon \u8868\u793a\u5728\u672a\u4f86 12 \u5230 24 \u500b\u6708\u5167\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe 10% \u5230 20% \u7684\u56de\u64a4\u5f8c\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u9707\u76ea\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u547c\u61c9\u4e86\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u9ad8\u5c64\u65b0\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u8b39\u614e\u8a9e\u8abf\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u671f\u8ca8\u5728\u65e9\u76e4\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u671f\u7d04\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.75%\u3001S&P 500 \u671f\u8ca8\u7d04\u8dcc 1.09%\u3001Nasdaq 100 \u671f\u8ca8\u4e0b\u8dcc 1.37%\u3002\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8a55\u4f30\u4eca\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u6f32\u52e2\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7d93\u8d85\u8d8a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6642\uff0cVIX \u4e0a\u63da\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8a00\u8ad6\u662f\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u91d1\u878d\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u4e3b\u8fa6\u7684 Global Financial Leaders\u2019 Investment Summit \u767c\u8868\uff0c\u8207\u6703\u8005\u5305\u62ec Morgan Stanley \u7684 Ted Pick \u8207 Capital Group \u7684 Mike Gitlin\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u4e86\u4e00\u5834\u95dc\u65bc\u300c\u9022\u9ad8\u91cd\u7f6e\u300d\u662f\u6b64\u4e00\u9031\u671f\u7279\u5fb5\u800c\u975e\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u8faf\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u57f7\u884c\u9577\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u5cf0\u6703\u4e0a\u8868\u9732\u8b39\u614e<\/h3>\n

Solomon \u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u76f4\u622a\u4e86\u7576\uff1a\u300c\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u672a\u4f86 12 \u5230 24 \u500b\u6708\u5167\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6703\u51fa\u73fe 10% \u5230 20% \u7684\u56de\u64a4\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u9031\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u9810\u671f\u7684\u9084\u8981\u9577\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u60c5\u7dd2\u5728\u67d0\u500b\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u9810\u6599\u5230\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u4e0b\u8f49\u8b8a\u3002Pick \u5247\u8868\u793a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u61c9\u70ba\u4fee\u6b63\u505a\u597d\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u4e26\u6697\u793a\u82e5\u56de\u8abf\u80fd\u51b7\u537b\u6295\u6a5f\u4e26\u91cd\u8a2d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u56de\u8abf\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002\u51fa\u81ea\u5169\u5bb6\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5177\u5206\u91cf\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u907f\u514d\u5c0d\u6642\u9ede\u4e0b\u5b9a\u8ad6\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u63cf\u7e6a\u4e00\u500b\u57fa\u6e96\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u9019\u662f\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3001\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u88ab\u58d3\u7e2e\u3001\u5bb9\u932f\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\u7684\u665a\u671f\u9031\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n

\u671f\u8ca8\u9707\u76ea\u3001VIX \u4e0a\u5347\u2500\u2500\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5728\u9a57\u8b49\u9019\u4e00\u8a0a\u606f<\/h3>\n

\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\u8fc5\u901f\u958b\u59cb\u70ba\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002S&P 500 \u8207 Nasdaq 100 \u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u80a1\u5e02\u5c0d\u5de8\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8207\u9577\u5b58\u7e8c\u671f\u6210\u9577\u66dd\u96aa\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff0c\u7576\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\u4e14\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6642\uff0c\u6b64\u985e\u80a1\u7968\u901a\u5e38\u9996\u7576\u5176\u885d\u3002VIX \u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u4ee3\u8868\u907f\u96aa\u6210\u672c\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u52d5\u614b\u5e38\u8feb\u4f7f\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u9810\u7b97\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u57fa\u91d1\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u5e73\u50f9\u7b56\u7565\u8abf\u6574\u6295\u7d44\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u73fe\u5728\u5c07\u89c0\u5bdf\u73fe\u8ca8\u8ce3\u58d3\u662f\u5426\u8ddf\u96a8\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u9022\u4f4e\u8cb7\u76e4\u6703\u5426\u9032\u5834\uff1b\u4eca\u5e74\u591a\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u9022\u4f4e\u627f\u63a5\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6291\u5236\u56de\u64a4\u3002\u76e4\u524d\u8d70\u52e2\u8207\u73fe\u8ca8\u6642\u6bb5\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u5c07\u6709\u52a9\u5224\u65b7\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u5c0d\u57f7\u884c\u9577\u5011\u8b39\u614e\u547c\u7c72\u7684\u91cd\u8996\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5de8\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u4f30\u503c\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ecd\u91cd\u8981<\/h3>\n

\u6f5b\u53f0\u8a5e\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4e00\u5c0f\u7fa4\u5de8\u578b\u80a1\u63a8\u52d5\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u53d6\u5f97\u8d85\u984d\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u81f4\u4f7f\u6574\u9ad4\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u591a\u982d\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u4e5d\u25cb\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7684\u91cd\u6f14\uff1a\u8207 AI \u6709\u95dc\u7684\u71df\u6536\u3001\u96f2\u7aef\u898f\u6a21\u6548\u61c9\u4ee5\u53ca\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u5f37\u5ea6\u652f\u6490\u4e86\u50cf Microsoft\u3001Nvidia \u8207 Alphabet \u7b49\u9f8d\u982d\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u7a7a\u982d\u53cd\u99c1\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u512a\u79c0\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u5728\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u6216\u5229\u7387\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u96e3\u514d\u9762\u81e8\u500d\u6578\u58d3\u7e2e\u3002\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc 10% \u5230 20% \u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u91cd\u5275\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f30\u503c\u6700\u4f38\u5c55\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5c0d 2026 \u5e74\u53ca 2027 \u5e74\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u5df2\u88ab\u5b9a\u50f9\u70ba\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7121\u7455\u7684\u500b\u80a1\u3002\u8a0e\u8ad6\u91cd\u9ede\u4e0d\u5728\u65bc\u5229\u6f64\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u65bc\u7576\u5b8f\u89c0\u9806\u98a8\u6e1b\u5f31\u6642\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9858\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u5229\u6f64\u652f\u4ed8\u591a\u5c11\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b8f\u89c0\u61f8\u800c\u672a\u6c7a\uff1aFed \u8def\u5f91\u3001\u6210\u9577\u9a5a\u614c\u3001\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u5b8f\u89c0\u5c64\u9762\uff0c\u6f5b\u5728\u89f8\u767c\u56e0\u7d20\u6e05\u55ae\u719f\u6089\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u89e3\u6c7a\u3002\u82e5 Federal Reserve \u70ba\u4e86\u5b8c\u6210\u5c0d\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u4efb\u52d9\u800c\u6301\u7e8c\u63a1\u53d6\u7dca\u7e2e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u5c0d\u4f30\u503c\u8207\u8cc7\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u6545\u4e8b\u5e36\u4f86\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u6210\u9577\u9a5a\u614c\u8feb\u4f7f\u66f4\u5feb\u5bec\u9b06\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u63d0\u9ad8\u8870\u9000\u6a5f\u7387\u4e26\u58d3\u7e2e\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u985e\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\u3002\u8ca1\u653f\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u9078\u8209\u5e74\u653f\u7b56\u98a8\u96aa\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u6210\u9577\u4e0d\u5747\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u5fa9\u7526\u653e\u7de9\u8207\u623f\u5730\u7522\u58d3\u529b\u4f9d\u7136\u5728\u8de8\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7372\u5229\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e2d\u76e4\u65cb\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7a81\u767c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5f15\u767c\u901a\u81a8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u4e26\u975e\u65b0\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u665a\u671f\u6f32\u52e2\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5148\u524d\u4e0d\u4ee5\u70ba\u610f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u5b9a\u4f4d\u64c1\u64e0\u548c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8da8\u8584\u6642\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u77ac\u9593\u8b8a\u5f97\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe 10\u201320% \u56de\u8abf\uff0c\u5404\u90e8\u9580\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u60c5\u5f62<\/h3>\n

\u82e5 Solomon \u6240\u8a00\u7684\u56de\u64a4\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0d\u6703\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u9ad8\u8c9d\u5854\u79d1\u6280\u3001\u5c1a\u672a\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u8207\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u6bd4\u6307\u6578\u8dcc\u5e45\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u884c\u696d\u5982\u623f\u5730\u7522\u8207\u9577\u671f\u5b58\u7e8c\u671f\u8edf\u9ad4\u82e5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u9ecf\u4f4f\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u81e8\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u80a1\u70ba\u6416\u64fa\u56e0\u5b50\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u9661\u5ced\u6709\u5229\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u8207\u4ea4\u6613\uff0f\u4f75\u8cfc\u6d3b\u52d5\u6e1b\u5c11\u5247\u53cd\u5411\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u6d88\u8cbb\u985e\u80a1\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9ad8\u7aef\u5962\u4f88\u54c1\u7684\u97cc\u6027\u8207\u4f4e\u7aef\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u9593\u5206\u5316\u3002\u82e5\u4f9b\u7d66\u9762\u689d\u4ef6\u652f\u6490\u6cb9\u50f9\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u76f8\u5c0d\u52dd\u51fa\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u514d\u75ab\u65bc\u5168\u9762\u98a8\u96aa\u8da8\u907f\u60c5\u7dd2\u3002\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u696d\u3001\u65e5\u5e38\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u8207\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u5065\u7b49\u9632\u79a6\u6027\u985e\u80a1\u5728\u56de\u8abf\u671f\u9593\u76f8\u5c0d\u8868\u73fe\u5f80\u5f80\u8f03\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u6ce2\u52d5\u98c6\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u4e5f\u5f88\u5c11\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u907f\u514d\u7d55\u5c0d\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b9a\u4f4d\u3001\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u5eab\u85cf\u80a1\u6703\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5<\/h3>\n

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