{"id":603739,"date":"2025-11-13T06:13:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T14:13:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=603739"},"modified":"2025-11-13T06:13:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T14:13:44","slug":"michael-burry-sec-scion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/11\/michael-burry-sec-scion\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Burry \u5411 SEC \u53d6\u6d88 Scion \u767b\u8a18\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5462\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michael Burry \u5df2\u5411 SEC \u53d6\u6d88 Scion Asset Management \u7684\u767b\u8a18\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u4e0a\u95dc\u9589\u4e86\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5916\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u9580\u9762\uff0c\u4e26\u9000\u51fa\u4e86\u90a3\u7a2e\u8b93\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u65c1\u89c0\u7bc0\u76ee\u7684\u5b63\u5ea6\u805a\u5149\u71c8\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u5411 SEC \u63d0\u4ea4\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u300aThe Big Short\u300b\u800c\u805e\u540d\u7684\u9019\u4f4d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c0d\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u540c\u6b65\u300d\u3002\u6b64\u8209\u767c\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u4ecd\u7531\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u8207 AI \u52dd\u51fa\u8005\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e26\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u8f49\u5411\u5c0d\u6c34\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8fb2\u5730\u548c\u9ec3\u91d1\u7b49\u500b\u4eba\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u90a3\u4e9b\u53d7\u6bcf\u65e5\u6aa2\u8996\u3001\u5f15\u767c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u516c\u958b\u653e\u7a7a\u8207\u9078\u80a1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5411 SEC \u53d6\u6d88\u767b\u8a18\u7d50\u675f\u4e86 Scion \u7684\u516c\u958b\u7bc7\u7ae0<\/h3>\n

\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7\u9867\u554f\u8eab\u5206\u53d6\u6d88\u767b\u8a18\uff0c\u6703\u5c07 Scion \u5f9e SEC \u7684\u5728\u7de8\u540d\u55ae\u4e2d\u79fb\u9664\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5176\u5831\u544a\u6301\u5009\u8207\u5ba2\u6236\u7684\u7fa9\u52d9\u3002\u5c31\u5be6\u52d9\u9762\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u88ab\u89e3\u8b80\u70ba Burry \u9000\u51fa\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7ba1\u7406\u5916\u90e8\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002\u6c92\u6709\u9867\u554f\u767b\u8a18\uff0c\u4e14\u82e5\u53ef\u7533\u5831\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u964d\u81f3\u76e3\u7ba1\u9580\u6abb\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0cScion \u7684\u5b63\u5ea6 13F \u62ab\u9732\u53ef\u4ee5\u505c\u6b62\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e00\u4f4d\u5176\u7533\u5831\u6587\u4ef6\u66fe\u88ab\u4e00\u500b\u6a21\u4eff\u8005\u8207\u61f7\u7591\u8005\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u7522\u696d\u50cf\u89e3\u6790\u8ca1\u5831\u96fb\u8a71\u6703\u8b70\u822c\u89e3\u8b80\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5608\u96dc\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u9593\u6b47\u6027\u3001\u80fd\u5728\u63a5\u89f8\u6642\u5f71\u97ff\u55ae\u4e00\u80a1\u7968\u8207\u7522\u696d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u547c\u53eb\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u671f\u3002\u9019\u4efd\u6587\u4ef6\u5c01\u5b58\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5f9e\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u6210\u540d\u4e26\u767c\u5c55\u70ba\u5b9a\u671f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u516c\u958b\u7684\u9006\u52e2\u62bc\u6ce8\uff08\u6709\u4e9b\u8070\u660e\u3001\u6709\u4e9b\u53d7\u5275\uff09\u7684\u7bc7\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7e3e\u6548\u812b\u7bc0\u63ed\u793a\u50f9\u503c\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u58d3\u529b<\/h3>\n

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\u8f49\u5411\u6c34\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8fb2\u5730\u8207\u9ec3\u91d1\u4e26\u975e\u9000\u5b88\u5730\u5821\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56de\u6b78\u5be6\u9ad4\u7a00\u7f3a\u3002\u6c34\u6b0a\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5206\u6563\u4e14\u653f\u6cbb\u654f\u611f\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\uff0c\u53d7\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u7570\u3001\u5340\u57df\u6210\u9577\u8207\u57fa\u790e\u5efa\u8a2d\u9650\u5236\u6240\u5f62\u5851\u3002\u8fb2\u5730\u63d0\u4f9b\u5be6\u8cea\u6536\u76ca\u3001\u8207\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u900f\u904e\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\u800c\u4f86\u7684\u71df\u904b\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5b58\u5728\u5340\u57df\u6027\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u4f4e\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u3002\u9ec3\u91d1\u5728\u5371\u6a5f\u51f8\u6027\u8207\u5b58\u7e8c\u671f\u5206\u6563\u4e0a\u5177\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7576\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u6ed1\u6216\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u7d44\u5408\u9069\u5408\u62bc\u6ce8\u8cc7\u6e90\u9650\u5236\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08\u800c\u975e\u5b63\u5ea6 EPS \u8d85\u9810\u671f\u8207\u98a8\u683c\u8f2a\u52d5\uff09\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u52d9\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u500b\u4eba\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u7522\u8f03\u96e3\u88ab\u524d\u7f6e\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u8f03\u6613\u7a7f\u8d8a\u9031\u671f\u6027\u566a\u97f3\u800c\u6301\u6709\u3002\u5982\u679c Burry \u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u5341\u5e74\u6703\u734e\u52f5\u5be6\u9ad4\u8cc7\u7522\u8207\u7a00\u7f3a\u6ea2\u50f9\uff0c\u9019\u5957\u9663\u5bb9\u5728\u5167\u90e8\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5373\u523b\u7684\u89e3\u8b80\u8207\u5176\u8aaa\u662f\u5c0d\u6574\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8aaa\u662f\u5c0d\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u8072\u97f3\u5468\u908a\u60c5\u7dd2\u8207\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002Burry \u62ab\u9732\u7684\u6301\u80a1\uff0c\u66fe\u80fd\u79fb\u52d5\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u5dee\u7684\u5c0f\u76e4\u80a1\u8207\u88ab\u51b7\u843d\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u80a1\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u9000\u51fa\u8207\u9032\u5834\u66fe\u7d93\u662f\u982d\u689d\u3002\u79fb\u9664\u9019\u500b\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u6703\u62bd\u8d70\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u89d2\u843d\u4e2d\u7531\u96f6\u661f\u6ce2\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u89d2\u843d\u540c\u6642\u662f\u6563\u6236\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8207\u91cf\u5316\u7be9\u9078\u5668\u7684\u72e9\u7375\u5730\u3002\u5c0d\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u662f\u4eba\u624b\u6d41\u5931\uff1a\u5728\u591a\u7d93\u7406\u5e73\u53f0\u8207\u88ab\u52d5\u5360\u512a\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u7d93\u71df\u4e00\u500b\u96c6\u4e2d\u3001\u9006\u52e2\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u82e6\u5dee\u3002\u5408\u898f\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u5ba2\u6236\u8010\u5fc3\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u57fa\u6e96\u662f\u5c11\u6578\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6642\u9ede\u5275\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8b93\u7d00\u5f8b\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u56fa\u57f7\u3002\u5f9e\u9019\u500b\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u53c8\u4e00\u4f4d\u7279\u7acb\u7368\u884c\u7684\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u64a4\u5834\u4e0d\u662f\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53cd\u6620\u4e3b\u52d5\u7ba1\u7406\u5408\u4f75\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u6578\u64da\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53d6\u6d88\u767b\u8a18\u5c0d\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u8207 13F \u7684\u610f\u6db5<\/h3>\n

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\u5c0d\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\uff1a\u6210\u9577\u4e3b\u5c0e vs \u6df1\u5ea6\u50f9\u503c<\/h3>\n

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