{"id":607250,"date":"2025-12-02T05:19:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T13:19:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=607250"},"modified":"2025-12-02T05:19:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T13:19:34","slug":"tesla-tsla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2025\/12\/tesla-tsla\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5df4\u91cc\u7a31 Tesla TSLA \u56e0\u99ac\u65af\u514b\u85aa\u916c\u98a8\u6ce2\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michael Burry \u518d\u6b21\u5c0d Tesla \u51fa\u624b\uff0c\u76f4\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u8352\u8b2c\u5730\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002\u300d\u5728\u4ed6\u65b0\u7684 Substack \u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u9019\u4f4d\u4ee5\u5bdf\u89ba 2008 \u5e74\u623f\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u805e\u540d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8868\u793a\uff0cTesla \u4ee5\u80a1\u7968\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7d04\u7a00\u91cb\u80a1\u6771 3.6%\uff0c\u4e26\u8b66\u544a\u82e5\u4e00\u9805\u64ec\u8b70\u7684 1 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143 Elon Musk \u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u7a00\u91cb\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c07\u66f4\u52a0\u56b4\u91cd\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u8a72\u80a1\u76ee\u524d\u4ee5\u7d04 209 \u500d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u8fd1\u4e94\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u7d04 94 \u500d\u4e14\u9060\u8d85 S&P 500 \u7684 22 \u500d\uff0cTesla \u80a1\u50f9\u5e7e\u4e4e\u672a\u898b\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u7d04 430 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5e74\u521d\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e0a\u6f32\u7d04 6.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u4ee5\u70ba\u610f\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u62c9\u5927<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7acb\u5373\u53cd\u61c9\u8aaa\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002Tesla \u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6ea2\u50f9\u662f\u7279\u6027\u800c\u975e\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5c0d\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u8207\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u9818\u57df\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6c7d\u8eca\u696d\u52d9\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u4ee5\u7d04 209 \u500d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u503c\u903e 1 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u662f\u5728\u70ba\u5c1a\u672a\u514c\u73fe\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8cb7\u55ae\u3002Burry \u7684\u61f7\u7591\u6b63\u4e2d\u9019\u500b\u6558\u4e8b\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u4e4b\u8655\uff1a\u7576\u524d\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u8207\u660e\u65e5\u627f\u8afe\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u591a\u982d\u6703\u8faf\u7a31 Tesla \u61c9\u5f97\u4e00\u500b\u985e\u4f3c AI \u7684\u9ad8\u500d\u6578\uff1b\u7a7a\u982d\u5247\u6703\u6307\u51fa\u5373\u4fbf\u662f Nvidia \u7684\u500d\u6578\u4e5f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e14\u8207\u5177\u9ad4\u3001\u9ad8\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u7684\u71df\u6536\u76f8\u9023\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6700\u521d\u7684\u7121\u6240\u8b02\u614b\u5ea6\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u7b49\u5f85\u8b49\u64da\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5fb9\u5e95\u7ffb\u76e4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7a00\u91cb\u8207\u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u6578\u5b78<\/h3>\n

Burry \u5c0d\u7a00\u91cb\u7684\u6279\u8a55\u8f03\u96e3\u88ab\u8f15\u5ffd\u3002\u4ee5\u80a1\u7968\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u662f\u4e00\u9805\u9577\u671f\u6027\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u7576\u767c\u884c\u65b0\u80a1\u4e14\u672a\u88ab\u5eab\u85cf\u80a1\u62b5\u92b7\u6642\uff0c\u4fbf\u6210\u70ba\u5be6\u969b\u6210\u672c\u3002Tesla \u5831\u544a\u7684\u5e74\u7a00\u91cb\u901f\u5ea6\u7d04\u70ba 3.6%\uff0c\u5c0d\u671f\u5f85\u9577\u671f\u8907\u5229\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\u76f8\u7576\u91cd\u5927\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u65bc\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f8b\u884c\u6027\u56de\u8cfc\u4ee5\u4e2d\u548c SBC \u7684\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u540c\u696d\uff0cTesla \u907f\u514d\u56de\u8cfc\uff0c\u4e26\u4ef0\u8cf4\u80a1\u6b0a\u4f86\u652f\u4ed8\u8207\u7559\u4f4f\u4eba\u624d\u3002\u82e5\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u9805\u4ee5\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u8a08\u7684 Musk \u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u80a1\u6b0a\u9905\u5c31\u6709\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4efd\u984d\u7e2e\u5c0f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u8a72\u65b9\u6848\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u8207\u80a1\u6b0a\u639b\u9264\u7684\u734e\u52f5\u69cb\u6210\uff0c\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u679c\u76f8\u540c\uff1a\u9664\u975e\u88ab\u975e\u51e1\u6210\u9577\u6216\u7531\u7a69\u5065\u81ea\u7531\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u8cc7\u52a9\u7684\u56de\u8cfc\u6240\u62b5\u92b7\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u76c8\u9918\u7684\u7d22\u53d6\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u591a\u982d\u8ad6\u9ede\u7e6b\u65bc\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u8207\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba<\/h3>\n

Tesla \u7684\u9ad8\u500d\u6578\u53ea\u6709\u5728 robotaxi\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u99d5\u4ee5\u53ca Optimus \u4eba\u5f62\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u5f9e\u793a\u7bc4\u8f49\u5411\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u5e36\u4f86\u6536\u5165\u8207\u5229\u6f64\u6642\u624d\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u3002\u591a\u982d\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u8edf\u9ad4\u98db\u8f2a\uff0c\u80fd\u628a\u8eca\u968a\u8f49\u8b8a\u70ba\u5177\u6709\u62bd\u6210\u3001\u8a02\u95b1\u8207\u6388\u6b0a\u7684\u7db2\u8def\u578b\u4f01\u696d\u3002\u90a3\u6b63\u662f\u5d4c\u5165 209 \u500d\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u6ea2\u50f9\u3002\u4f46\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u4ecd\u53d7\u9650\u65bc\u6cd5\u898f\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u8207\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002\u5546\u696d\u5316\u7684 robotaxi \u90e8\u7f72\u9700\u8981\u8de8\u53f8\u6cd5\u5340\u7684\u6279\u51c6\u3001\u8eca\u968a\u6216\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8cac\u4efb\u6846\u67b6\u3002Optimus \u5c6c\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u8b8a\u9769\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u9054\u5230\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u55ae\u4f4d\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u7d42\u7a76\u6703\u8981\u6c42\u80fd\u8b49\u660e\u50f9\u683c\u5408\u7406\u5316\u7684\u9805\u76ee\u3001\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u8207\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7af6\u722d\u73fe\u5be6\u8207\u6bdb\u5229\u58d3\u529b<\/h3>\n

Burry \u5c0d Tesla \u64c1\u8b77\u8005\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u62a8\u64ca\u6beb\u4e0d\u542b\u7cca\uff1a\u5fe0\u5be6\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u96a8\u8457\u6bcf\u500b\u6558\u4e8b\u8b8a\u5f97\u64c1\u64e0\uff0c\u5f9e EV \u512a\u52e2\u8f49\u5411\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u518d\u5230\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u3002\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u80cc\u666f\u5df2\u8feb\u4f7f\u964d\u50f9\u4e26\u58d3\u7e2e\u6c7d\u8eca\u6bdb\u5229\uff0c\u9019\u9805\u9006\u98a8\u4e0d\u6703\u96a8\u96fb\u6c60\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u65e2\u6709\u5ee0\u5546\u7406\u6027\u5316\u7522\u54c1\u800c\u6d88\u5931\u3002Tesla \u4f9d\u8cf4\u8edf\u9ad4\u9644\u52a0\u7387\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u5132\u5b58\u696d\u52d9\u6210\u9577\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u6838\u5fc3\u6c7d\u8eca\u696d\u52d9\u4ecd\u662f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f15\u64ce\u3002\u5982\u679c\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u71df\u6536\u5931\u8272\uff0c\u6216\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u8a08\u756b\u5ef6\u5b95\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u4f30\u503c\u8a08\u7b97\u5c07\u56de\u5230\u6c7d\u8eca\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u7a00\u91cb\u9020\u6210\u6700\u5927\u50b7\u5bb3\u3001\u800c\u9ad8\u500d\u6578\u96e3\u4ee5\u81ea\u5713\u5176\u8aaa\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002<\/p>\n

Burry \u5c0d AI \u9ad8\u98db\u80a1\u7684\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u61f7\u7591<\/h3>\n

\u9019\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u6b21\u5076\u767c\u7684\u6279\u8a55\u3002Burry \u5df2\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u6279\u8207 AI \u76f8\u95dc\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7a4d\u6975\u6703\u8a08\u8655\u7406\u8207\u4f30\u503c\u904e\u9ad8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec Nvidia \u8207 Palantir\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u7dda\u662f\uff1aGAAP \u6558\u4e8b\u5e38\u88ab\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u6307\u6a19\u7f8e\u5316\uff0c\u800c SBC \u9ed8\u9ed8\u5730\u5c07\u7d93\u6fdf\u5229\u76ca\u5f9e\u80a1\u6771\u8f49\u79fb\u7d66\u54e1\u5de5\u3002Tesla \u5728\u4ee5\u80a1\u6b0a\u652f\u4ed8\u4eba\u54e1\u65b9\u9762\u4e26\u975e\u7570\u6578\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u96c4\u5fc3\u898f\u6a21\u8207\u7f3a\u4e4f\u56de\u8cfc\u4f86\u7de9\u885d\u5f71\u97ff\u65b9\u9762\u5c24\u70ba\u7a81\u51fa\u3002\u5c0d\u50f9\u503c\u5c0e\u5411\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7576\u628a\u9019\u7a2e\u7d44\u5408\u8207\u4e09\u4f4d\u6578\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u4f01\u696d\u53f2\u4e0a\u4efb\u4f55\u7d00\u9304\u7684 CEO \u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\u642d\u914d\u6642\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u9ad8\u5371\u7d44\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n

\u99ac\u65af\u514b\u8981\u8b49\u660e\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u80fd\u8b49\u660e\u8a72\u85aa\u916c\u5408\u7406<\/h3>\n

\u82e5\u64ec\u8b70\u7684 1 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u65b9\u6848\u63a8\u9032\uff0cTesla \u8463\u4e8b\u6703\u5fc5\u9808\u4e3b\u5f35 Musk \u7684\u6fc0\u52f5\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u76f4\u63a5\u7d81\u5b9a\u65bc\u4ed6\u4eba\u7121\u6cd5\u4ea4\u4ed8\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u5275\u9020\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ad6\u9ede\u9700\u8981\u8d85\u8d8a\u751f\u7522\u8207\u4ea4\u4ed8\u7684\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u3002\u60f3\u50cf\u5728\u95dc\u9375\u5e02\u5834\u7372\u5f97\u53ef\u76c8\u5229 robotaxi \u7db2\u7d61\u7684\u76e3\u7ba1\u901a\u904e\u3001\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u4eba\u985e\u4ecb\u5165\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u99d5\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u53ca\u5177\u53ef\u4fe1\u55ae\u4f4d\u5229\u6f64\u8207\u4f7f\u7528\u60c5\u5883\u7684 Optimus \u5546\u696d\u51fa\u8ca8\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4e00\u689d\u5230\u9054\u81ea\u7531\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u65e2\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u6210\u9577\u6027\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u4e5f\u80fd\u8cc7\u52a9\u56de\u8cfc\u4ee5\u62b5\u92b7\u7a00\u91cb\u3002\u8981\u652f\u6301 209 \u500d\u9810\u671f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6703\u5c0b\u6c42\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a Tesla \u7684\u76c8\u9918\u80fd\u529b\u80fd\u4ee5\u66f4\u985e\u4f3c\u8edf\u9ad4\u5e73\u53f0\u800c\u975e\u6c7d\u8eca\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u7684\u901f\u7387\u8907\u5229\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4f4e\u65bc\u6b64\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u90fd\u6703\u8b93\u7a7a\u982d\u8ad6\u4ecd\u7136\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u524d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u50ac\u5316\u5291<\/h3>\n

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\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff1a\u8010\u5fc3\u9084\u662f\u8b49\u64da<\/h3>\n

\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u7d66 Tesla \u61f7\u7591\u7684\u597d\u8655\uff0c\u800c Burry \u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53cd\u5411\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u591a\u982d\u5fc5\u9808\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u8207\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u80fd\u5728\u5408\u7406\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5f9e\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8f49\u70ba\u5e36\u4f86\u7d93\u71df\u69d3\u687f\u7684\u71df\u6536\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u8b49\u6210\u500d\u6578\u8207\u4efb\u4f55\u56e0\u85aa\u916c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u7a00\u91cb\u3002\u7a7a\u982d\u5247\u5c08\u6ce8\u65bc\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u9700\u9810\u6e2c\u7a81\u7834\u5373\u53ef\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u6578\u5b78\uff1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e7e\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u7684\u4ee5\u80a1\u6b0a\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u85aa\u916c\u3001\u7f3a\u4e4f\u56de\u8cfc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u82e5\u7372\u6279\u51c6\u5c07\u589e\u52a0\u80a1\u6b0a\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9b\u7d66\u7684\u85aa\u916c\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u8a2d\u5b9a\u6703\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u4ea4\u4ed8\u6578\u64da\u3001\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u66f4\u65b0\u8207\u81ea\u52d5\u99d5\u99db\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u5468\u570d\u7522\u751f\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002Tesla \u4ee5\u5f80\u66fe\u9760\u4e0d\u53d7\u6642\u9593\u8868\u675f\u7e1b\u800c\u8d0f\u5f97\u6ea2\u50f9\u3002\u8981\u7dad\u6301\u9019\u500b\u6ea2\u50f9\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5fc5\u9808\u628a\u6545\u4e8b\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u4ed8\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\uff1a\u54e1\u5de5\u3001\u57f7\u884c\u9577\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u627f\u53d7\u7a00\u91cb\u7684\u9577\u671f\u80a1\u6771\u3002\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u73fe\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u5c07\u4ecd\u662f\u8584\u5f31\u74b0\u7bc0 \u2014 \u800c Burry \u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u5c0d\u6b64\u63d0\u51fa\u8cea\u7591\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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