{"id":612708,"date":"2026-01-02T11:06:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T19:06:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=612708"},"modified":"2026-01-02T11:06:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T19:06:44","slug":"%e9%9b%b6%e6%97%a5%e9%81%b8%e6%93%87%e6%ac%8a%e7%8b%82%e7%86%b1%e8%83%8c%e5%be%8c%e7%9a%84%e9%9a%b1%e6%80%a7%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2026\/01\/%e9%9b%b6%e6%97%a5%e9%81%b8%e6%93%87%e6%ac%8a%e7%8b%82%e7%86%b1%e8%83%8c%e5%be%8c%e7%9a%84%e9%9a%b1%e6%80%a7%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%e6%80%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u96f6\u65e5\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u72c2\u71b1\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u662f\u90a3\u7a2e\u5e38\u5e38\u7372\u52dd\u537b\u6700\u7d42\u6bc0\u6ec5\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u8207\u81ea\u7a31 Captain Condor \u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u7db2\u7d05\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6158\u6557\u4e26\u975e\u8b0e\u5718\u3002\u9019\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u9810\u671f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u7576\u96f6\u65e5\u5230\u671f\u9047\u4e0a\u52a0\u78bc\u6642\uff0c\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u3002\u904a\u6232\u6703\u5728\u61f8\u5d16\u908a\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5b89\u5168\u7121\u865e\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u50cf\u5361\u901a\u4eba\u7269\u4e00\u6a23\u5f9e\u908a\u7de3\u8dcc\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

0DTE \u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u5c0f\u8d0f\u3001\u5927\u6bc0<\/h3>\n

\u96f6\u65e5\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u628a\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7684\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u58d3\u7e2e\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u4e0b\u5348\u3002\u5b83\u734e\u52f5\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e00\u518d\u8ce3\u51fa\u5c0f\u98a8\u96aa\u63db\u53d6\u5c0f\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u53f0\u8ca0\u504f\u614b\u6a5f\u5668\u3002\u5831\u916c\u8f2a\u5ed3\u5728\u7834\u88c2\u524d\u7dca\u6e4a\u4e14\u4ee4\u4eba\u5b89\u5fc3\u3002\u6578\u5b78\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff1a\u983b\u7e41\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u7372\u5229\u6703\u88ab\u55ae\u6b21\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u52dd\u5229\u7684\u640d\u5931\u62b9\u53bb\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u5145\u65a5\u6b64\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\uff08Long Term Capital Management\uff09\u5728\u5012\u9589\u524d\u8a87\u8000\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u7a69\u5b9a\u56de\u5831\u30021987 \u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4fdd\u96aa\u98a8\u6f6e\u627f\u8afe\u4e00\u8def\u5e73\u7a69\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u7d50\u69cb\u5c0d\u5176\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u8ce3\u51fa\u98a8\u96aa\u611f\u89ba\u50cf\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5b83\u8b8a\u6210\u8cc7\u4e0d\u62b5\u50b5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63db\u500b\u540d\u5b57\u7684\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e<\/h3>\n

\u8a31\u591a\u7dda\u4e0a\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\u90fd\u6697\u85cf\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e\uff08Martingale\uff09\u3002\u540d\u7a31\u53ef\u80fd\u662f Iron Condor \u6216\u4fe1\u7528\u50f9\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u505a\u6cd5\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4f60\u4e0d\u5229\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u52a0\u78bc\u3001\u5c55\u671f\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u6216\u64f4\u5927\u50f9\u5dee\u4ee5\u6c42\u56de\u672c\u3002\u5176\u908f\u8f2f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4f60\u80fd\u5920\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u8f49\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e0a\u3002\u4f46\u8cc7\u91d1\u76e4\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u3002\u640d\u5931\u7684\u8907\u5229\u901f\u5ea6\u6bd4\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u9650\u5236\u64f4\u5f35\u5f97\u5feb\u3002\u5728\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e\u88e1\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u983b\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u9677\u9631\u3002\u671f\u671b\u640d\u5931\u85cf\u5728\u90a3\u7f55\u898b\u4f46\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff1a\u4f60\u7121\u6cd5\u518d\u96d9\u500d\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002\u8ced\u5f92\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u6bc0\u6ec5\uff0c\u5238\u5546\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u8ffd\u52a0\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\uff0c\u7dda\u4e0a\u793e\u7fa4\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u3002\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u72c0\u614b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u7a05\u6536\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u9003\u907f<\/h3>\n

\u5728 0DTE \u88e1\uff0ctheta\uff08\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u8870\u6e1b\uff09\u548c gamma\uff08\u66f2\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u8853\u8a9e\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u50cf\u4e00\u689d\u4f60\u7ad9\u4e0a\u7684\u8f38\u9001\u5e36\u3002\u82e5\u4f60\u5728\u7121\u660e\u986f\u512a\u52e2\u4e0b\u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\uff0ctheta \u6703\u9010\u5206\u9418\u5411\u4f60\u5fb5\u7a05\uff1b\u82e5\u4f60\u8ce3\u51fa\u671f\u6b0a\u800c\u6a19\u7684\u8df3\u52d5\uff0cgamma \u6703\u61f2\u7f70\u4f60\u3002\u5e7e\u9ede S&P \u6307\u6578\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\u5c31\u80fd\u5728\u6578\u79d2\u5167\u7ffb\u8f49 delta\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u6700\u5dee\u50f9\u683c\u903c\u8feb\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6703\u52d5\u614b\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002\u7576\u8a31\u591a\u65e5\u5167\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u64e0\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u6642\uff0c\u5c0d\u6c96\u6703\u7522\u751f\u53cd\u994b\u56de\u8def\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u770b\u904e\u9019\u9f63\u6232\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4fdd\u96aa\u5728 1987 \u5e74\u5f15\u767c\u81ea\u6211\u5f37\u5316\u7684\u62cb\u552e\uff1b1998 \u5e74\u64c1\u64e0\u7684\u6703\u805a\u4ea4\u6613\u5d29\u88c2\u3002\u6a5f\u5236\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u56de\u8def\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u69d3\u687f\u9047\u4e0a\u88ab\u8feb\u884c\u52d5\u9047\u4e0a\u8584\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u884c\u60c5\u5c31\u6703\u63a5\u624b\u5176\u9918\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7db2\u7d05\u554f\u984c\u662f\u770b\u4e0d\u898b\u7684\u69d3\u687f<\/h3>\n

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\u95dc\u65bc 0DTE \u7684\u722d\u8ad6\u5e38\u8df3\u5230\u5927\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u9019\u662f\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u5a01\u8105\u9084\u662f\u914d\u89d2\uff1f\u6709\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\u96f6\u65e5\u4ea4\u6613\u5728\u7e3d\u671f\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u4e2d\u53ea\u4f54\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u932f\u5931\u91cd\u9ede\u3002\u5fae\u89c0\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bc0\u6389\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u57fa\u91d1\u800c\u7121\u9700\u62d6\u57ae\u9280\u884c\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u80fd\u628a\u65e5\u5167\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u7d81\u5728\u5fc5\u9808\u8fc5\u901f\u5927\u91cf\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u4e0a\u3002Financial Times \u5df2\u5831\u5c0e\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u53cd\u994b\u56de\u8def\u7684\u95dc\u5207\u3002\u5373\u4fbf 0DTE \u5728\u7e3d\u91cf\u4e0a\u53ea\u5360\u5c0f\u6bd4\u91cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u7a97\u652f\u914d\u908a\u969b\u50f9\u683c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3002\u5c3e\u90e8\u7531\u908a\u969b\u751f\u6210\u3002\u5d29\u76e4\u59cb\u65bc\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u6700\u8584\u3001\u69d3\u687f\u6700\u7dca\u7684\u9ede\u3002\u9020\u6210\u5ee3\u6cdb\u75db\u82e6\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63a5\u89f8\u5373\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u63a7\u5236<\/h3>\n

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\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u662f\u7d50\u69cb\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u6d3e\u982d<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u734e\u52f5\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u800c\u734e\u52f5\u51f8\u6027\uff08convexity\uff09\u3002\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u8a2d\u8a08\u63a5\u53d7\u9810\u6e2c\u6703\u5931\u6557\u3001\u8aa4\u5dee\u7bc4\u570d\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u662f\u6709\u754c\u640d\u5931\u548c\u958b\u653e\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u986f\u73fe\u70ba\u8f03\u5c0f\u7684\u5009\u4f4d\u3001\u6709\u9650\u98a8\u96aa\u7d50\u69cb\u4ee5\u53ca\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6a5f\u6703\u64e6\u8eab\u800c\u904e\u7684\u8010\u5fc3\u3002\u8207\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u5c0f\u5e45\u65e5\u8d0f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9019\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4e4f\u5473\u3002\u4f46\u552f\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u662f\u5b58\u6d3b\u3002Kelly \u6e96\u5247\u70ba\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5927\u5c0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u9ad8\u4f30\u4f60\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u6703\u5931\u6548\u3002\u65af\u591a\u845b\u5be6\u8e10\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u95dc\u6ce8\u53ef\u63a7\u4e4b\u4e8b\u3002\u4f60\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u66dd\u96aa\u3001\u69d3\u687f\u8207\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u3002\u4f60\u7121\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u884c\u60c5\u3001\u7fa4\u773e\u6216\u5238\u5546\u98a8\u63a7\u5728\u6050\u614c\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u6b21\u6158\u6557\u771f\u6b63\u986f\u793a\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc<\/h3>\n

Captain Condor \u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u73fe\u4ee3\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u500b\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5b83\u628a\u8ca0\u504f\u614b\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u7ffb\u500d\u908f\u8f2f\u3001\u52d5\u614b\u5c0d\u6c96\u8207\u793e\u6703\u5354\u8abf\u4e32\u9023\u8d77\u4f86\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u601d\u7dad\u4e0a\u7684\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6578\u52dd\u5229\u3001\u6578\u8ffd\u96a8\u8005\u3001\u5b58\u622a\u5716\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\u7d50\u679c\u5206\u914d\u8207\u6bc0\u6ec5\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u6559\u80b2\u7db2\u7ad9\u65e9\u5df2\u8b66\u544a 0DTE \u7684\u5371\u96aa\uff1b\u696d\u754c\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e5f\u6a19\u793a\u51fa\u5fae\u89c0\u7d50\u69cb\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u7136\u800c\u76f8\u540c\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ecd\u91cd\u73fe\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4eba\u8166\u611b\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u594f\u6548\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u611b\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u5011\u90a3\u4e9b\u300c\u5176\u4ed6\u6642\u5019\u300d\u3002\u8a0a\u606f\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u4f60\u61fc\u6015\u671f\u6b0a\u6216\u7981\u6b62\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u4f60\u5c0a\u91cd\u61f8\u5d16\u7684\u908a\u7de3\uff0c\u4e26\u8a2d\u8a08\u4ee5\u81f4\u65bc\u6ed1\u5012\u6642\u4e0d\u6703\u8dcc\u5f97\u592a\u9060\u3002\u8d0f\u7684\u8def\u5f91\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u83ef\u9e97\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6709\u7a7a\u9593\u72af\u932f\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u689d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Captain Condor \u7684\u6e05\u5009\u4e8b\u4ef6\u51f8\u986f\u51fa\u96f6\u65e5\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5371\u96aa\uff1a\u983b\u7e41\u5c0f\u52dd\u5229\u770b\u4f3c\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u537b\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u8667\u640d\u77ac\u9593\u62b9\u53bb\uff0c\u5f37\u8abf\u4e86\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u63a7\u8207\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u8a2d\u8a08\u5728\u61c9\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u6642\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":52,"featured_media":587487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[429],"tags":[2176,1122,563],"class_list":["post-612708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics-politics-zh-hant","tag-2176","tag-1122","tag--zh-hant"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/612708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/52"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=612708"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/612708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":612730,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/612708\/revisions\/612730"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/587487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=612708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=612708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=612708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}