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\u7576\u50b5\u5238\u8207\u80a1\u7968\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u624d\u80fd\u770b\u51fa\u8ab0\u5728\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u52a0\u69d3\u687f\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5831\u916c\u3002\u904e\u53bb 15 \u5e74\u734e\u52f5\u4e86\u4e45\u671f\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u4f4e\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u9032\u884c\u8cb7\u56de\u770b\u4f3c\u8070\u660e\u3002\u79c1\u52df\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u8207\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u5b9a\u50f9\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u7576\u908a\u969b\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\u672a\u6309\u6642\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\uff0c\u7b97\u8853\u5c31\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u3002\u5177\u5099\u8b8a\u52d5\u6210\u672c\u7d50\u69cb\u3001\u5f48\u6027\u5eab\u5b58\u8207\u771f\u6b63\u5b9a\u50f9\u6b0a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u5920\u9069\u61c9\uff1b\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u8207\u5230\u671f\u7246\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5247\u4e0d\u80fd\u3002\u82e5\u5b58\u6b3e beta \u4e0d\u518d\u5287\u589e\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u8f03\u9577\u4e45\u671f\u8b49\u5238\u5e33\u9762\u7684\u9280\u884c\u624d\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u8f03\u7de9\u6162\u7684\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f91\u30022022 \u5e74\u7684\u932f\u89ba\u662f\u7d2f\u7a4d\u7684\u5e33\u9762\u640d\u5931\u4e0d\u6703\u9020\u6210\u554f\u984c\uff1b2023 \u5e74\u6211\u5011\u75db\u82e6\u5730\u5b78\u5230\uff0c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u4fe1\u5fc3\u80fd\u628a\u5e33\u9762\u640d\u5931\u8b8a\u6210\u771f\u5be6\u640d\u5931\u3002\u82e5 Warsh \u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684 Fed \u610f\u5473\u8457\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u56de\u8abf\u6642\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u6025\u65bc\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u5fa9\u6d3b\u4e00\u7a2e\u53e4\u8001\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u7d00\u5f8b\uff1a\u8cfa\u53d6\u4f60\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u501f\u4f86\u7684\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n

60\/40 \u6295\u7d44\u7684\u6cb9\u6c34\u5206\u96e2\u795e\u8a71<\/h3>\n

\u81ea\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u8207\u50b5\u5238\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8ca0\u76f8\u95dc\u70ba\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u514d\u8cbb\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4ee5\u53bb\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u6574\u5408\u8207\u592e\u884c\u5728\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5730\u4f4d\u70ba\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u3002\u7576\u901a\u81a8\u5728 2022 \u5e74\u66b4\u589e\u4e14\u653f\u7b56\u8ffd\u8d95\u6642\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u7834\u88c2\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u56e0\u4e00\u5247\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9078\u982d\u689d\u800c\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u9707\u52d5\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u662f\u9ad4\u5236\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5e38\u6578\u3002\u7528\u53e4\u5178\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u628a\u4e00\u500b\u5747\u8861\u7d50\u679c\u8aa4\u8a8d\u70ba\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002Goodhart\u2019s Law \u5728\u6b64\u6f5b\u4f0f\uff1a\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6a19\u6210\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u597d\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u4ee5\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u80a1\u50b5\u5c0d\u6c96\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u800c\u4ea4\u4ed8\u8a72\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u6070\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u58d3\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u4e45\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u9ad4\u5236\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u7531 Warsh \u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u9818\u5c0e\uff0c\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u6309\u547d\u4ee4\u6062\u5fa9\u820a\u6709\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u96d9\u5411\u7684\u4e14\u8ca1\u653f\u885d\u64ca\u4f9d\u7136\u96dc\u4e82\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u8207\u50b5\u5238\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u6642\u6210\u70ba\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u90a3\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u662f\u8aa0\u5be6\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u7b56\u8a0a\u865f\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u904a\u6232<\/h3>\n

\u63d0\u540d\u4e4b\u722d\u91cd\u65b0\u6253\u958b\u4e86 Fed \u7368\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u559c\u6b61\u4e00\u500b\u7121\u653f\u6cbb\u8272\u5f69\u4e14\u6700\u5927\u5316\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u7684\u592e\u884c\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u559c\u6b61\u5ec9\u50f9\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002\u5169\u8005\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6c38\u9060\u517c\u5f97\u3002\u504f\u5411\u6291\u5236\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5411\u8ca1\u653f\u7576\u5c40\u50b3\u905e\u4e00\u500b\u8a0a\u865f\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u6703\u90a3\u9ebc\u5bb9\u6613\u8ca8\u5e63\u5316\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u8aa4\u3002\u7528\u535a\u5f08\u8ad6\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f37\u5316\u4e00\u540d\u73a9\u5bb6\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u6fc0\u52f5\u3002\u5f9e Burns \u5230 Volcker \u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6559\u8a13\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u6548\uff1a\u91cd\u65b0\u9328\u5b9a\u9810\u671f\u9700\u8981\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u4e3b\u5f35\u91cd\u6f14 1980 \u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u6297\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u6253\u7834\u90a3\u7a2e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u6642\u9593\u8868\u4e0a\u6703\u6709\u5bec\u9b06\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u4f86\u81ea\u6b64\u985e\u8a0a\u865f\u7684\u5373\u6642\u5e02\u503c\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u662f\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5be6\u969b\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u3002\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u7522\u6703\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u5b83\uff0c\u4f46\u5132\u84c4\u8005\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6027\u8cc7\u672c\u4e0d\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8b8a\u52d5\u6642\u69cb\u5efa\u6297\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/h3>\n

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