{"id":618793,"date":"2026-02-04T02:21:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T10:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=618793"},"modified":"2026-02-04T02:21:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T10:21:09","slug":"%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%82%b5%e5%88%b8%e6%8a%bc%e6%b3%a8%ef%bc%9a%e6%98%8e%e9%a1%af%e4%b9%8b%e8%99%95%e9%9a%b1%e8%97%8f%e7%9a%84%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2026\/02\/%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%82%b5%e5%88%b8%e6%8a%bc%e6%b3%a8%ef%bc%9a%e6%98%8e%e9%a1%af%e4%b9%8b%e8%99%95%e9%9a%b1%e8%97%8f%e7%9a%84%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%e6%80%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u69d3\u687f\u50b5\u5238\u62bc\u6ce8\uff1a\u660e\u986f\u4e4b\u8655\u96b1\u85cf\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5982\u679c\u98a8\u96aa\u85cf\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u5b9a\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u6211\u5011\u9084\u7518\u5fc3\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u6700\u64c1\u64e0\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0a\u758a\u52a0\u69d3\u687f\u2014\u2014\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u662f\u6df1\u5ea6\u3001\u6d41\u52d5\u4e14\u5bec\u5bb9\u7684\uff1fFinancial Stability Board \u5c0d\u6578\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u69d3\u687f\u50b5\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u8207\u5176\u8aaa\u662f\u5371\u8a00\u8073\u807d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8aaa\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b78\u7684\u63d0\u9192\uff1a\u7576\u4f60\u4e0d\u65b7\u5411\u8a2d\u8a08\u70ba\u61c9\u5c0d\u77ac\u6642\u4ea4\u901a\u7684\u6a4b\u6881\u52a0\u8f09\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u66b4\u98a8\u96e8\u53bb\u8b93\u5b83\u5012\u584c\u3002\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u6642\u9593\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b89\u5168\u5957\u606f\u7684\u5e7b\u89ba<\/h3>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u4e0a\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e45\u671f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u53ef\u6e2c\u91cf\u4e14\u53ef\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u7e6a\u88fd\u671f\u8ca8\u8207\u73fe\u5238\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u57fa\u5dee\uff0c\u5c07\u878d\u8cc7\u505a\u6210\u56de\u8cfc\uff0c\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u6027\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5e38\u6578\u3002\u4f46\u6b77\u53f2\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u662f\u6674\u5929\u4e4b\u53cb\uff0c\u662f\u590f\u5b63\u5c0f\u6eaa\u3002\u7576\u96e8\u4f86\u6642\uff0c\u6c34\u6d41\u6e4d\u6025\u4e26\u958b\u947f\u65b0\u6e20\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u91cd\u65b0\u767c\u73fe\u57fa\u5dee\u6536\u6582\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7279\u6b0a\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u878d\u8cc7\u662f\u6bcf\u500b\u8cc7\u672c\u7d50\u69cb\u4e2d\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u74b0\u7bc0\u3002<\/p>\n

FSB \u7684\u64d4\u6182\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002\u69d3\u687f\u5728\u5be7\u975c\u4e2d\u7d2f\u7a4d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u4f86\u3002Bank of England \u5df2\u7d93\u8b66\u793a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u69d3\u687f\u5316\u7684\u5229\u7387\u62bc\u6ce8\u8005\u5728 gilts \u5e02\u5834\u88ab\u8feb\u62cb\u552e\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u706b\u8ce3\u52d5\u614b\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5728 2022 \u5e74\u82f1\u570b\u8cac\u4efb\u5c0e\u5411\u6295\u8cc7\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u904e\u9019\u985e\u7248\u672c\uff1a\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u5c0d\u6c96\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u878d\u8cc7\u885d\u64ca\u628a\u6309\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u8b8a\u6210\u88dc\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u7684\u6025\u6551\u3002\u5171\u540c\u8981\u7d20\u4e0d\u662f\u8cc7\u7522\u4e0d\u826f\uff1b\u800c\u662f\u7dca\u8026\u5408\u3001\u8584\u5f31\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7de9\u885d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u932f\u8aa4\u5730\u76f8\u4fe1\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u8207\u878d\u8cc7\u5728\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u4ecd\u6703\u8868\u73fe\u6b63\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n

\u57fa\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\u8207\u53cd\u5411\u878d\u8cc7\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n

Treasury \u57fa\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\u2014\u2014\u505a\u7a7a\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u505a\u591a\u73fe\u5238\u3001\u4ee5\u56de\u8cfc\u878d\u8cc7\u2014\u2014\u4e26\u4e0d\u7a00\u5947\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u7ba1\u9053\u5de5\u7a0b\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u64f4\u5c55\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5957\u5229\u5229\u6f64\u5c0f\u4e14\u4ee5\u5229\u5dee\u70ba\u7126\u9ede\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u900f\u904e\u69d3\u687f\u653e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u4ee5\u8b93\u6578\u5b78\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0d\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8\u50b5\u5238\u65b9\u5411\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u8207\u878d\u8cc7\u6210\u672c\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u66dd\u96aa\u3002\u7576\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u671f\u8ca8\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u6500\u5347\uff0c\u56de\u8cfc\u6298\u8b93\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u73fe\u5238\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u57fa\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u52d5\u800c\u8df3\u958b\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u61f2\u7f70\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u51f8\u6027\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n

Fed \u7684\u76e3\u7ba1\u4eba\u54e1\u5df2\u6697\u793a\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u52d5\u614b\u7684\u95dc\u5207\uff0c\u4e14\u6709\u5176\u7406\u7531\u3002\u5728\u5e73\u975c\u671f\uff0cValue-at-risk \u6a21\u578b\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff0c\u8a98\u4f7f\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u5927\u982d\u5bf8\uff0c\u6070\u597d\u5728\u7cfb\u7d71\u5fd8\u8a18\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u80fd\u591a\u5feb\u6d88\u5931\u6642\u3002\u7136\u5f8c\uff0c\u7576\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u56de\u4f86\u6642\uff0cVAR \u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u88dc\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u7684\u50b3\u5c0e\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u57fa\u91d1\u56e0\u70ba\u5fc5\u9808\u800c\u975e\u56e0\u70ba\u8207\u4ea4\u6613\u610f\u898b\u76f8\u5de6\u800c\u6309\u4e0b\u8ce3\u51fa\u9375\u3002\u9019\u662f\u69d3\u687f\u7684\u6c99\u5806\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u6c99\u7c92\u770b\u4f3c\u7121\u5bb3\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4e00\u7c92\u5c0f\u6c99\u5f15\u767c\u6ed1\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u592e\u884c\u4f5c\u70ba\u610f\u5916\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u65b9<\/h3>\n

\u9019\u4e0d\u53ea\u95dc\u4e4e\u5e7e\u500b\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u7576\u88ab\u8feb\u8ce3\u65b9\u885d\u64ca\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6703\u88ab\u62c9\u5165\u6210\u70ba\u7d42\u6975\u505a\u5e02\u8005\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u9670\u8b00\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u6838\u5fc3\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u4e2d\u96c6\u4e2d\u69d3\u687f\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u5f8c\u679c\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u4e26\u56e0\u6b64\u63d0\u524d\u8b66\u544a\u3002\u4f46\u8b66\u544a\u7121\u6cd5\u6539\u8b8a\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u7269\u7406\u898f\u5247\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u7dad\u7a69\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u88fd\u9020\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5f8c\u5099\u6551\u63f4\u6210\u70ba\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u5047\u8a2d\u6d88\u9632\u968a\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u64f4\u5927\u982d\u5bf8\u3002<\/p>\n

European Central Bank \u5c0d\u9280\u884c\u5411\u4fe1\u7528\u57fa\u91d1\u63d0\u4f9b\u69d3\u687f\u4ee5\u9032\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u8f49\u79fb\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u95dc\u5207\uff0c\u8207\u6b64\u547c\u61c9\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\uff0c\u96b1\u85cf\u98a8\u96aa\u900f\u904e\u5c0d\u624b\u65b9\u8207\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7ba1\u9053\u9ad4\u73fe\u5728\u9280\u884c\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u4e0a\u3002\u5728\u50b5\u5238\u57fa\u5dee\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\uff0c\u96b1\u85cf\u98a8\u96aa\u5b58\u5728\u65bc\u56de\u8cfc\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u7d50\u7b97\u7684\u878d\u8cc7\u93c8\u4e2d\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7d42\u9ede\uff1a\u69d3\u687f\u6d41\u5411\u6700\u5f31\u7684\u5951\u7d04\u689d\u6b3e\u548c\u6700\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ba1\u9053\u5167\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u69d3\u687f<\/h3>\n

\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u660e\u986f\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u50c5\u5b58\u5728\u65bc\u8cc7\u7522\u7aef\uff1b\u5b83\u5b58\u5728\u65bc\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u689d\u6b3e\u3001\u5230\u671f\u932f\u914d\u4ee5\u53ca\u6298\u8b93\u7684\u9806\u5468\u671f\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6298\u8b93\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u982d\u5bf8\u64f4\u5927\uff1b\u7576\u6298\u8b93\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53bb\u69d3\u687f\u5448\u975e\u7dda\u6027\u3002\u9019\u8207 2008 \u5e74\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8207 2022 \u5e74\u82f1\u570b LDI \u906d\u9047\u7684\u87ba\u65cb\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u7d93\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u8def\u5f91\u50b3\u905e\u3002\u69d3\u687f\u8cb8\u6b3e\u8207\u5408\u6210\u98a8\u96aa\u8f49\u79fb\u6559\u6703\u6211\u5011\uff1a\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u52a0\u4e0a\u69d3\u687f\u7b49\u65bc\u9a5a\u559c\u3002\u5305\u88dd\u6539\u8b8a\uff1b\u6578\u5b78\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56de\u8cfc\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u826f\u6027\u7684\u5f8c\u52e4\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u96fb\u529b\u7db2\u3002\u7576\u4fe1\u5fc3\u52d5\u6416\uff0c\u7db2\u983b\u4fbf\u632f\u76ea\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u7455\u75b5\u4e5f\u8feb\u4f7f\u9700\u6c42\u88ab\u5207\u9664\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5be6\u52d9\u4e0a\u88ab\u8feb\u62cb\u552e\u7684\u6a23\u8c8c\uff1a\u8cb8\u65b9\u964d\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u7d50\u7b97\u884c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\uff0c\u64c1\u64e0\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u540c\u6642\u9000\u51fa\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u50f9\u683c\u767c\u73fe\u65b0\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u914d\u7d66\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u3002\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8b8a\u6210\u6d77\u5e02\u8703\u6a13\u3002<\/p>\n

\u535a\u5f08\u8ad6\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\uff1a\u90e8\u5206\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u88ab\u8feb\u884c\u52d5<\/h3>\n

\u8a31\u591a\u5e02\u5834\u884c\u70ba\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u5b9a\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5177\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u6027\u3002\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u6c92\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u662f\u50f9\u683c\u63a5\u53d7\u8005\uff0c\u6709\u786c\u6027\u89f8\u767c\u689d\u4ef6\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u70ba\u4f55\u706b\u8ce3\u4e0d\u662f\u6096\u8ad6\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u7d04\u675f\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5354\u8abf\u554f\u984c\u662f\u96d9\u5411\u7684\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u6210\u70ba\u5171\u540c\u8a8d\u77e5\uff1a\u67d0\u500b\u69d3\u687f\u5316\u5340\u6bb5\u6b63\u627f\u53d7\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u5c31\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u66dd\u96aa\u6216\u653e\u5bec\u689d\u6b3e\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5957\u5229\u5728\u7121\u6cd5\u627f\u53d7\u6ce2\u52d5\u6642\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u6700\u7cdf\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6982\u7387\u518d\u6dfb\u4e00\u5c64\u4e0d\u53cb\u5584\u7684\u626d\u66f2\u3002\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u878d\u8cc7\u7684\u539a\u5c3e\u4e0d\u662f\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7f3a\u9677\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u5011\u662f\u8cc7\u672c\u8584\u5f31\u3001\u7dca\u8026\u5408\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u7279\u5fb5\u3002\u5c0f\u57fa\u5dee\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e58\u4e0a\u5de8\u5927\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u4e26\u4e0d\u5c0f\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u662f\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u8ca0\u50b5\u3002LTCM \u5728 1998 \u5e74\u65bc off-the-run \u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u4e0a\u5b78\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u8ab2\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u7b56\u7565\u6703\u901a\u904e LTCM \u7576\u5e74\u7528\u7684\u56de\u6e2c\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee4\u4eba\u5b89\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8106\u5f31\u6838\u5fc3\u5efa\u7acb\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/h3>\n

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