Brent \u539f\u6cb9\u4e0a\u6f32\u903e 5%\uff0c\u800c S&P 500 \u671f\u8ca8\u9031\u4e94\u65e9\u76e4\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7d04 1%\uff0c\u64da\u8ffd\u8e64\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4f0a\u6717\u5728\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6d77\u7063\u570b\u5bb6\u5347\u7d1a\u5c0d\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u7684\u653b\u64ca\u3002\u6b64\u8209\u767c\u751f\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71 Donald Trump \u5a01\u8105\u82e5 Tehran \u4e0d\u9032\u5165\u548c\u5e73\u8ac7\u5224\u5c31\u9396\u5b9a\u4f0a\u6717\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u6578\u5c0f\u6642\u5f8c\uff0c\u5347\u9ad8\u4e86\u5c0d\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u91cd\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57fa\u6e96 Brent \u8207 West Texas Intermediate \u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5c07\u8a72\u5340\u57df\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ea6\u4e2d\u65b7\u8996\u70ba\u50f9\u683c\u9a45\u52d5\uff0c\u8a72\u5730\u5340\u7d04\u904b\u9001\u5168\u7403\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u773c\u524d\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\u6301\u4e45\u6027\uff1a\u9019\u662f\u96a8\u8457\u5916\u4ea4\u4ecb\u5165\u800c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6703\u5c07\u66f4\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u5730\u52a0\u8af8\u65bc\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2\u81ea\u6709\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u5be6\u7269\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u6307\u51fa\u5982\u679c\u4fdd\u96aa\u516c\u53f8\u63d0\u9ad8\u6230\u722d\u4fdd\u8cbb\uff0c\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5468\u908a\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u5ef6\u9072\u8207\u6539\u822a\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6d77\u7063\u7522\u6cb9\u570b\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u51fa\u53e3\u904b\u4f5c\u3002\u55ae\u65e5\u5167 Brent \u51fa\u73fe 5% \u7684\u8df3\u7a7a\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u8feb\u4f7f\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u5404\u74b0\u7bc0\u5f9e\u7f8e\u570b\u9801\u5ca9\u5230\u4e9e\u6d32\u7149\u5ee0\u505a\u51fa\u907f\u96aa\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u9ad4\u5316\u5927\u578b\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u8207\u6cb9\u7530\u670d\u52d9\u80a1\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c07\u53d7\u5230\u8cb7\u76e4\u9752\u775e\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u53f0\u6307\u51fa\u5728 Exxon Mobil (XOM)\u3001Chevron (CVX) \u8207 ConocoPhillips (COP) \u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u91cf\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call\uff09\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u4e0a\u6e38\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u670d\u52d9\u985e\u80a1\u2014Schlumberger (SLB) \u8207 Halliburton (HAL)\u2014\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e5f\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u53d7\u60e0\u8005\u3002\u76f8\u5c0d\u5730\uff0c\u822a\u7a7a\u8207\u7269\u6d41\u696d\u6b63\u6e96\u5099\u9762\u5c0d\u66f4\u9ad8\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u8207\u82e5\u822a\u7dda\u8b8a\u5f97\u52d5\u76ea\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8def\u7dda\u554f\u984c\uff1bDelta (DAL)\u3001American (AAL) \u8207 United (UAL) \u901a\u5e38\u8207\u5674\u5c04\u71c3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u5448\u53cd\u5411\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u50cf Marathon Petroleum (MPC) \u8207 Valero (VLO) \u9019\u985e\u7149\u6cb9\u5ee0\u9762\u81e8\u6df7\u5408\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u9700\u5728\u66f4\u5f37\u7684\u88c2\u89e3\u5229\u5dee\u8207\u539f\u6599\u6ce2\u52d5\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\uff0cBP (BP) \u8207 Shell (SHEL) \u66b4\u9732\u60c5\u5f62\u985e\u4f3c\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u77f3\u8166\u6cb9\u8b8a\u7dca\uff0c\u77f3\u5316\u5ee0\u53ef\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u5229\u6f64\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u662f\u5373\u6642\u4e14\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u985e\u80a1\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6563\u6236\u8ffd\u9010\u4e0a\u884c\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5546\u54c1\u885d\u64ca\u6642\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u5287\u672c\u3002\u6a5f\u69cb\u4ea4\u6613\u6aaf\u5247\u8f03\u70ba\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u5229\u7528\u9818\u53e3\uff08collars\uff09\u4e26\u5728\u884c\u60c5\u5f37\u52c1\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u5177\u8986\u84cb\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u4ee5\u5f9e\u6f32\u52e2\u7372\u5229\u3002\u82e5\u884c\u60c5\u5ef6\u7e8c\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\u80c3\u7d0d\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u5c31\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6563\u6236\u52d5\u80fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6574\u500b\u8907\u5408\u9ad4\u63a8\u4e0a\u963b\u529b\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u8981\u9577\u671f\u91cd\u5b9a\u50f9\u4f9b\u61c9\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u907f\u96aa\u8005\u8207\u5b8f\u89c0\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u8ddf\u9032\u3002\u95dc\u6ce8\u6cb9\u985e ETF \u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u504f\u659c\u5ea6\uff08skew\uff09\u662f\u5426\u6301\u7e8c\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u82e5\u65b0\u805e\u71b1\u5ea6\u51b7\u537b\uff0c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u624d\u6703\u56de\u843d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08vol-of-vol\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u8feb\u4f7f CTAs \u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u5e73\u50f9\u57fa\u91d1\u524a\u6e1b\u66dd\u96aa\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
Trump \u7684\u5347\u7d1a\u5a01\u8105\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u975e\u516c\u958b\u7ba1\u9053\u8ac7\u5224\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u8ced\u6ce8\u3002Tehran \u7684\u69d3\u687f\u5728\u65bc\u975e\u5c0d\u7a31\u6027\uff1a\u7cbe\u6e96\u6253\u64ca\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u7206\u767c\u5168\u9762\u885d\u7a81\u4e0b\u52d5\u6416\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u83ef\u5e9c\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u5247\u662f\u5a01\u61fe\u8207\u6b21\u7d1a\u5236\u88c1\uff0c\u58d3\u7e2e\u51fa\u53e3\u8207\u878d\u8cc7\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u6240\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u4fee\u8fad\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5169\u500b\u5be6\u52d9\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u6d77\u7063\u7522\u6cb9\u570b\u80fd\u5426\u7dad\u6301\u7522\u91cf\u8207\u51fa\u8ca8\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Iran \u662f\u5426\u6703\u6e2c\u8a66\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6216\u985e\u4f3c 2019 \u5e74 Abqaiq \u8f5f\u70b8\u90a3\u6a23\u91dd\u5c0d Saudi \u95dc\u9375\u8a2d\u65bd\u7684\u7d05\u7dda\uff1f\u4efb\u4f55\u5c0d\u8655\u7406\u6216\u88dd\u8f09\u80fd\u529b\u9020\u6210\u5be6\u8cea\u640d\u5bb3\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u6703\u62c9\u9577\u5099\u7528\u7522\u80fd\u58d3\u529b\u4e26\u628a\u9060\u671f\u7d50\u69cb\u63a8\u5411\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u9006\u50f9\u5dee\uff08backwardation\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
OPEC+ \u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u64c1\u6709\u7a69\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0cSaudi Arabia \u6301\u6709\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6709\u6548\u5099\u7528\u7522\u80fd\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u7591\u616e\u671f\u9593\u52d5\u7528\u90a3\u500b\u7de9\u885d\u6709\u8a0a\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u5be6\u52d9\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4e14\u7121\u6cd5\u7de9\u89e3\u5c0d\u4e0b\u6e38\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u653b\u64ca\u3002\u5982\u679c Saudi \u8207 UAE \u7684\u6876\u6578\u7e7c\u7e8c\u9806\u5229\u88dd\u8239\uff0c\u7522\u6cb9\u570b\u96c6\u5718\u53ef\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u5316\u7dad\u6301\u7522\u91cf\u4e0d\u8b8a\u540c\u6642\u76e3\u63a7\u5eab\u5b58\uff1b\u82e5\u4e2d\u65b7\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u5354\u540c\u91cb\u653e\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u4fe1\u865f\u6216\u80fd\u9650\u5236\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4ecd\u6703\u8981\u6c42\u984d\u5916\u6ea2\u50f9\u3002\u95dc\u6ce8 Brent \u8207 Dubai \u7684\u5373\u671f\u50f9\u5dee\uff08prompt spreads\uff09\uff1b\u66f4\u5ee3\u7684\u9006\u50f9\u5dee\u5c07\u78ba\u8a8d\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u660e\u986f\u7684\u7dca\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u8207\u4e2d\u6771\u724c\u865f\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u7149\u5ee0\u63a1\u8cfc\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u70ba\u8907\u96dc\u3002<\/p>\n
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