{"id":631640,"date":"2026-04-16T04:14:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T11:14:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=631640"},"modified":"2026-04-16T04:14:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T11:14:32","slug":"the-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2026\/04\/the-21\/","title":{"rendered":"The 21 \u82f1\u91cc\u6c7a\u52dd\u9ede\u727d\u52d5\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6bd4\u65e9\u6668\u901a\u52e4\u9084\u7a84\u7684\u4e00\u7e37\u6c34\u6d41\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u626d\u66f2\u4e00\u500b 100 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff1f\u56e0\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u50cf\u6d77\u6d0b\uff0c\u66f4\u50cf\u7ba1\u7dda\u3002\u58d3\u529b\u6703\u5728\u6700\u7a84\u7684\u95a5\u9580\u8655\u805a\u96c6\u3002\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff09\u9019\u9053 21 \u82f1\u91cc\u7684\u54bd\u5589\uff0c\u904b\u9001\u7d04\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u8b49\u660e\u55ae\u4e00\u6545\u969c\u9ede\u80fd\u70ba\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u8a02\u4e0b\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u3002\u6d77\u4e0a\u5c01\u9396\u8207\u6389\u982d\u7684\u6cb9\u8f2a\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u805e\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u662f\u5c0d\u4e00\u500b\u5fd8\u8a18\u5197\u9918\u3001\u628a\u548c\u5e73\u7576\u4f5c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u5be9\u8a08\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5a01\u61fe\u69cb\u7bc9\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/h3>\n

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\u74f6\u9838\u7684\u535a\u5f08\u8ad6<\/h3>\n

Thomas Schelling \u6559\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u529b\u91cf\u6d41\u5411\u90a3\u4e9b\u627f\u8afe\u53ef\u898b\u4e14\u6210\u672c\u5171\u64d4\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u3002\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b Schelling \u9ede\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u8d8a\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5b83\uff0c\u570d\u7e5e\u5b83\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u5c31\u8d8a\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002\u4f0a\u6717\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u6b63\u5f0f\u300c\u5c01\u9589\u300d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u8abf\u6574\u9a37\u64fe\u5f37\u5ea6\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u53ef\u5426\u8a8d\u6027\u540c\u6642\u63d0\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5be6\u65bd\u5c01\u9396\u4ee5\u5c55\u793a\u6c7a\u5fc3\u3002\u96d9\u65b9\u90fd\u80fd\u4e0d\u65b7\u79fb\u52d5\u908a\u754c\u3002\u8239\u8236\u4fdd\u96aa\u5546\u5373\u6642\u6309\u5e02\u503c\u8a08\u50f9\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4fdd\u8cbb\uff1b\u79df\u8239\u65b9\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u65e5\u79df\u3002\u7e5e\u904e\u597d\u671b\u89d2\u6703\u591a\u51fa\u6578\u9031\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8ddd\u96e2\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f5c\u696d\u8cc7\u672c\u88ab\u7d81\u5728\u6d6e\u52d5\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0a\u7684\u6642\u9593\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6642\u9593\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5546\u54c1\u3002\u7576\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u53ca\u6642\u5236\uff08just-in-time\uff09\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u9031\u5c31\u662f\u6c38\u6046\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u932f\u4f30\u539a\u5c3e\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n

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