{"id":633891,"date":"2026-04-28T08:16:46","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:16:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=633891"},"modified":"2026-04-28T08:16:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:16:46","slug":"markets-price-peace-tehran-prices-patience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2026\/04\/markets-price-peace-tehran-prices-patience\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets price peace; Tehran prices patience"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4ecd\u628a\u9019\u5834\u6230\u722d\u7576\u4f5c\u5929\u6c23\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u77ed\u66ab\u3001\u5c40\u90e8\u3001\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u3002\u5fb7\u9ed1\u862d\u73a9\u7684\u662f\u66f4\u9577\u7dda\u7684\u68cb\u3002\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u512a\u52e2\u662f\u8010\u529b\u800c\u975e\u901f\u5ea6\u6642\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u5c31\u6210\u70ba\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u4ee5\u69d3\u687f\u3001\u5957\u5229\u548c\u5b63\u5ea6\u696d\u7e3e\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u8996\u6642\u9593\u70ba\u8981\u6253\u6298\u6263\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u932f\u914d\u5c31\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

Incentives favor a long conflict<\/h3>\n

\u5225\u770b\u982d\u689d\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u8a98\u56e0\u3002\u4f0a\u6717\u907f\u514d\u76f4\u63a5\u3001\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5c0d\u6297\u3002\u5b83\u501a\u9760\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u3001\u53ef\u5426\u8a8d\u6027\u548c\u7d93\u904e\u6821\u6e96\u7684\u5347\u7d1a\uff0c\u8b93\u5c0d\u624b\u8655\u65bc\u88ab\u52d5\u3001\u8b93\u76df\u53cb\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u53ef\u63a7\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u6b0a\u5b89\u5168\u4e26\u5c0d\u5340\u57df\u65bd\u58d3\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u52dd\u5229\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6d88\u8017\u6230\u2014\u2014\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5546\u52d9\u4ea4\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5340\u57df\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u660e\u767d\u9019\u9ede\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u628a\u505c\u706b\u7576\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5883\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u885d\u7a81\u62d6\u5f97\u8d8a\u4e45\uff0c\u8cbf\u6613\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u88ab\u63ed\u9732\u5f97\u8d8a\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

Energy\u2019s fragility shows up with a lag<\/h3>\n

\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e0d\u6703\u5728\u70b8\u5f48\u843d\u4e0b\u7684\u7576\u5929\u5c31\u5168\u9762\u5d29\u58de\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2\u6548\u61c9\u6703\u9010\u6b65\u50b3\u5c0e\u958b\u4f86\u3002\u6cb9\u8f2a\u822a\u7dda\u8b8a\u9577\u3002\u4fdd\u96aa\u8b8a\u8cb4\u3002\u7d19\u9762\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5099\u7528\u7522\u80fd\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u6d41\u52d5\u6216\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u9650\u5236\u3002\u7149\u6cb9\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u2014\u2014\u91cd\u6cb9\u5c0d\u8f15\u6cb9\u3001\u5340\u57df\u6df7\u914d\u2014\u2014\u8b8a\u6210\u74f6\u9838\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u662f1980\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6cb9\u8f2a\u6230\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u9760\u672a\u4f86\u5317\u6d77\u8207\u963f\u62c9\u65af\u52a0\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u7de9\u885d\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u4e0a\u6e38\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u591a\u5e74\u88ab\u58d3\u6291\uff0c\u9801\u5ca9\u7522\u696d\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u7d00\u5f8b\u3002\u8a8d\u70ba\u975e\u5e38\u898f\u7522\u91cf\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u6e67\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5b89\u6170\u611f\u662f\u932f\u7f6e\u7684\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7531\u8907\u96dc\u7149\u5ee0\u751f\u7522\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u88fd\u54c1\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5ee0\u7121\u6cd5\u5feb\u901f\u6539\u9020\u3002\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u9ebc\u591a\u95dc\u65bc\u539f\u6cb9\u982d\u689d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u67f4\u6cb9\u3001\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\u548c\u77f3\u5316\u7522\u54c1\u7b49\u4e2d\u65b7\u5c3e\u90e8\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u4e8c\u6b21\u6548\u61c9\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u4f46\u7de9\u6162\u4e14\u4e0d\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n

A global, asymmetric shock to growth and prices<\/h3>\n

\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4f9b\u7d66\u885d\u64ca\u4e0d\u6703\u5747\u7b49\u6253\u64ca\u5168\u7403\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u7ce7\u98df\u6de8\u9032\u53e3\u570b\u9762\u81e8\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u5411\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u50b3\u5c0e\u548c\u66f4\u5f31\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002\u7576\u8ca1\u653f\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\u6642\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u6536\u5165\u56e0\u6b64\u53d7\u4fb5\u8755\u3002\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e5f\u6703\u53d7\u5bb3\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u7de9\u885d\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5f62\u4f3c1970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u5dee\u7570\uff1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u3002\u9019\u64f4\u5927\u4e86\u653f\u7b56\u5169\u96e3\u3002\u7dca\u7e2e\u4ee5\u5c0d\u6297\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u6703\u5192\u627c\u6bba\u75b2\u5f31\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5bec\u9b06\u4ee5\u652f\u6490\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u628a\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u8def\u5f91\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u591a\u908a\u6a5f\u69cb\u5df2\u5c07\u6b64\u6a19\u793a\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u6027\u4f46\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff1a\u7cfb\u7d71\u6703\u5148\u5728\u8f03\u5f31\u7684\u7bc0\u9ede\u5f4e\u66f2\uff0c\u4f46\u58d3\u529b\u662f\u7d2f\u7a4d\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

Rate volatility is the tell<\/h3>\n

\u4f60\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u982d\u7248\u6cb9\u50f9\u66b4\u6f32\u5c31\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u770b\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u3002\u8fd1\u9031\u4f86\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u901a\u81a8\u6050\u61fc\u8207\u6210\u9577\u6050\u61fc\u9593\u6416\u64fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u5229\u7387\u62bc\u6ce8\u5728\u65e5\u5167\u51fa\u73fe\u5287\u70c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4f9b\u7d66\u885d\u64ca\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4ea4\u7e54\u7684\u7279\u5fb5\u3002\u51f8\u6027\u5728\u6b64\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u8def\u5f91\u5047\u8a2d\u7684\u5c0f\u8b8a\u52d5\u6703\u8feb\u4f7f\u69d3\u687f\u73a9\u5bb6\u8207\u8ca0\u50b5\u5c0e\u5411\u6295\u7d44\u7522\u751f\u5927\u91cf\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u3002\u9019\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u8aa4\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u592e\u884c\u9762\u81e8\u4e00\u500b\u4f86\u81ea\u535a\u5f08\u8ad6\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u7684\u6642\u9593\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5c0d\u4f9b\u7d66\u885d\u64ca\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u9577\u671f\u56de\u61c9\u662f\u8010\u5fc3\u8207\u516c\u4fe1\u529b\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u8a98\u56e0\u5247\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u61c9\u4e26\u4ee5\u884c\u52d5\u793a\u4eba\u3002\u7576\u5e73\u8861\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u3001\u671f\u9650\u6ea2\u50f9\u53ca\u5931\u696d\u6578\u64da\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u64fa\u52d5\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6954\u5f62\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

When sentiment breaks, luxury is first in line<\/h3>\n

\u5fae\u89c0\u8b49\u64da\u8207\u5b8f\u89c0\u8da8\u52e2\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u9ad8\u7aef\u53ef\u9078\u6d88\u8cbb\u5728\u908a\u969b\u4e0a\u8d70\u8edf\u3002\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u6b50\u6d32\u5962\u4f88\u54c1\u96c6\u5718\u5831\u544a\u92b7\u552e\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u6307\u7a31\u4e2d\u6771\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u5f31\u8207\u65c5\u904a\u4e2d\u65b7\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u6709\u9322\u4eba\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5962\u4f88\u54c1\u662f\u8de8\u5883\u89c0\u5149\u8207\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u6700\u4e0a\u5c64\u5341\u5206\u4f4d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u5373\u6642\u8b80\u6578\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u9a45\u52d5\u4e86\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u518d\u770b\u8abf\u67e5\u6578\u64da\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5728\u4e09\u6708\u964d\u81f3\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u4f4e\u9ede\uff1b\u82f1\u570b\u5247\u898b\u523011\u500b\u6708\u4f4e\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u662f\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u4f46\u65b9\u5411\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7576\u6ce2\u7063\u8207\u6b50\u6d32\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u65c5\u904a\u901a\u9053\u653e\u6162\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u3001\u822a\u7a7a\u516c\u53f8\u8207\u98ef\u5e97\u9023\u9396\u5148\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u8ca8\u5e63\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u5eab\u5b58\u56de\u5347\u3002\u6548\u61c9\u9010\u6b65\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u7d2f\u7a4d\u3002<\/p>\n

Shipping, insurance, and the new cost of distance<\/h3>\n

\u6700\u7dca\u7e43\u7684\u74f6\u9838\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u5730\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5728\u5951\u7d04\u4e0a\u3002\u6230\u722d\u98a8\u96aa\u4fdd\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u5148\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u662f\u904b\u8cbb\u65e5\u79df\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u518d\u4f86\u662f\u79df\u8239\u5408\u7d04\u671f\u9650\u62c9\u9577\u3002\u8239\u6771\u8981\u6c42\u8f03\u9577\u5408\u7d04\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa\uff1b\u8ca8\u4e3b\u70ba\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u4f9b\u61c9\u6d41\u52d5\u800c\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u9019\u62c9\u9577\u4e86\u71df\u904b\u8cc7\u91d1\u9031\u671f\u3002\u7576\u5730\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u6642\u57fa\u5dee\u98a8\u96aa\u7206\u767c\u3002\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u7149\u5ee0\u6703\u9762\u5c0d\u4e00\u7a2e\u50f9\u683c\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u800c\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u77f3\u5316\u8cb7\u5bb6\u6d3b\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u50f9\u683c\u73fe\u5be6\u3002LNG\u8ca8\u7269\u6539\u9053\u4e14\u6642\u7a0b\u5ef6\u9072\uff0c\u4f7f\u96fb\u7db2\u5728\u708e\u71b1\u5929\u6642\u66b4\u9732\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5404\u9805\u82e5\u55ae\u7368\u8655\u7406\u90fd\u53ef\u63a7\uff1b\u5408\u4f75\u8d77\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u7a05\u3002\u725b\u97ad\u6548\u61c9\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0a\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u70ba\u9632\u5ef6\u9072\u800c\u8d85\u91cf\u4e0b\u55ae\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5728\u9700\u6c42\u8d70\u8edf\u6642\u5927\u5e45\u780d\u55ae\u3002\u70ba\u5373\u6642\u5236\u8a02\u512a\u5316\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\uff0c\u624d\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u300c\u4ee5\u9632\u842c\u4e00\u300d\u800c\u6e96\u5099\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

The market\u2019s short-war bias<\/h3>\n

\u70ba\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6301\u7e8c\u4f4e\u4f30\u885d\u7a81\u4e2d\u7684\u4e45\u671f\u98a8\u96aa\uff1f\u4e09\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6b21\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u97ff\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u6b63\u5728\u892a\u53bb\uff0c\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u5851\u8207\u9801\u5ca9\u7e3d\u6703\u6551\u5e02\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5957\u5229\u6536\u76ca\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0a\u766e\u3002\u8ce3\u6389\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u3001\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u9650\u6216\u4fe1\u7528\u6ea2\u50f9\u3001\u7dad\u6301\u8584\u5f31\u5eab\u5b58\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u8070\u660e\u2014\u2014\u76f4\u5230\u4e0d\u518d\u8070\u660e\u70ba\u6b62\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u65bc\u5e38\u614b\u6642\u671f\u3002\u4ee5\u8fd1\u671f\u8cc7\u6599\u70ba\u9328\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u50f9\u503c\u6846\u67b6\u6703\u4f4e\u4f30\u653f\u6b0a\u6539\u8b8a\u4e0b\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4ee3\u7406\u6230\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u662f\u5e38\u614b\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u584a\u72c0\u7684\u3002\u9577\u6642\u6bb5\u7684\u5e73\u975c\u88ab\u7d04\u675f\u7a81\u7834\u6240\u6253\u65b7\u3002\u628a\u5b83\u7576\u4f5c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u4f86\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u8b39\u614e\uff1b\u662f\u5e7b\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n

Building antifragility when time is the adversary<\/h3>\n

\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u547c\u7c72\u6050\u614c\u6216\u8eb2\u5165\u9632\u7a7a\u6d1e\u5f0f\u7684\u6295\u7d44\u3002\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e45\u671f\u7684\u547c\u7c72\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6642\u9593\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u97cc\u6027\u52dd\u904e\u6700\u4f73\u5316\u3002\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5728\u65b7\u8ca8\u6703\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u6e96\u5099\u5eab\u5b58\u7de9\u885d\u3001\u8207\u66ff\u4ee3\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u7c3d\u5f48\u6027\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u7a2e\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u90fd\u6709\u56de\u5831\u7684\u7bc0\u80fd\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u5c0d\u6295\u7d44\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u4f9d\u8cf4\u55ae\u4e00\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u66f4\u591a\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff1a\u9078\u64c7\u80fd\u5f9e\u5206\u6563\u6027\u4e2d\u7372\u5229\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u770b\u6162\u8b8a\u6578\u800c\u975e\u982d\u689d\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u5099\u7528\u7522\u80fd\u4f30\u7b97\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u6d41\u91cf\u6bd4\u8f03\u3001\u95dc\u9375\u6210\u54c1\u7684\u53ef\u7528\u5929\u6578\u3001\u6230\u722d\u98a8\u96aa\u4fdd\u96aa\u8cbb\u7387\u3001\u5b9a\u671f\u79df\u8239\u6307\u6578\u3001\u7149\u5ee0\u505c\u7522\u6578\u64da\u3001\u640d\u76ca\u5e73\u8861\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8cc7\u91d1\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8de8\u5e63\u5225\u57fa\u5dee\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u9805\u90fd\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u7cfb\u7d71\u5728\u54ea\u88e1\u5438\u6536\u58d3\u529b\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5c07\u5728\u54ea\u88e1\u628a\u58d3\u529b\u50b3\u905e\u51fa\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n

The hidden constant<\/h3>\n

\u6838\u5fc3\u8aa4\u89e3\u5728\u65bc\u628a\u9019\u5834\u885d\u7a81\u7576\u4f5c\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5fc5\u9808\u5171\u5b58\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u3002\u5fb7\u9ed1\u862d\u80fd\u627f\u64d4\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7b49\u5f85\u6703\u628a\u6210\u672c\u65bd\u52a0\u5230\u5225\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u4ee5\u9069\u61c9\uff0c\u4f46\u9069\u61c9\u6709\u6210\u672c\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee3\u50f9\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7d71\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5fc3\u7406\u8207\u5229\u7387\u9ad4\u7cfb\u90fd\u5728\u628a\u4e00\u5834\u5340\u57df\u6027\u7684\u9b25\u722d\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u7a05\u3002\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u3001\u5229\u6f64\u58d3\u7e2e\u8207\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u652f\u4ed8\u3002\u82e5\u4f60\u5047\u5b9a\u548c\u5e73\u662f\u9ed8\u8a8d\u3001\u6230\u722d\u662f\u504f\u96e2\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u4e0d\u65b7\u88ab\u9a5a\u8a1d\u5230\u3002\u7ffb\u8f49\u9019\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u3002\u7136\u5f8c\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e0d\u6703\u5728\u300c\u610f\u5916\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u300d\u6642\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u2014\u2014\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u71df\u904b\u9084\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u9577\u671f\u885d\u7a81\u4e2d\u97cc\u6027\uff08antifragility\uff09\u7684\u6a23\u8c8c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5e02\u5834\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u885d\u7a81\u6301\u4e45\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff1a\u5fb7\u9ed1\u862d\u7684\u8010\u5fc3\u6311\u6230\u77ed\u7dda\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u63ed\u9732\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u8cbf\u6613\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u51f8\u986f\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u8ffd\u6c42\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":52,"featured_media":587487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[426],"tags":[640,1122,784],"class_list":["post-633891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news-zh-hant","tag-640","tag-1122","tag-784"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/52"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=633891"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":633905,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633891\/revisions\/633905"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/587487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=633891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=633891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=633891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}