{"id":667936,"date":"2026-10-08T05:58:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T12:58:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=667936"},"modified":"2026-10-08T05:58:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T12:58:06","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e6%ad%bb%e7%a3%95%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e7%9a%84%e9%9d%a2%e5%ad%90%e4%b9%9f%e4%b8%8d%e5%a5%bd%e4%bd%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2026\/10\/%e7%be%8e%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e6%ad%bb%e7%a3%95%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%ef%bc%8c%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e7%9a%84%e9%9d%a2%e5%ad%90%e4%b9%9f%e4%b8%8d%e5%a5%bd%e4%bd%bf\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u6b7b\u78d5\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9762\u5b50\u4e5f\u4e0d\u597d\u4f7f"},"content":{"rendered":"

2026 \u5e74\u5c0d\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u8f09\u5165\u53f2\u518a\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578\u3001\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u8207\u7d0d\u65af\u9054\u514b\u7d9c\u5408\u6307\u6578\u8f2a\u756a\u5237\u65b0\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0cKevin Warsh \u65bc 5 \u6708 22 \u65e5\u5ba3\u8a93\u5c31\u4efb\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7b2c 17 \u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u6539\u5beb\u5e02\u5834\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u662f 9 \u6708 16 \u65e5 Warsh \u8207 FOMC \u5171\u540c\u555f\u52d5\u7684 21 \u4e16\u7d00\u7b2c\u56db\u500b\u52a0\u606f\u9031\u671f \u2014\u2014 \u9019\u5834\u7dca\u7e2e\u8def\u5f91\u80cc\u5f8c\uff0c\u9084\u7ad9\u8457\u4e00\u4f4d\u6301\u7e8c\u65bd\u58d3\u7684\u767d\u5bae\u4e3b\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7968\u52a0\u606f 25 \u57fa\u9ede\uff0c21 \u4e16\u7d00\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u7dca\u7e2e\u9031\u671f\u958b\u555f<\/h2>\n

9 \u6708 16 \u65e5\uff0cFOMC \u4ee5 12 \u7968\u8d0a\u6210\u30010 \u7968\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u5168\u7968\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f3 3.75%\u20134.00%\u3002\u9019\u662f 21 \u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u555f\u52d5\u52a0\u606f\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f2023 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh \u5728\u6703\u5f8c\u8072\u660e\u4e2d\u5c07\u6b64\u6b21\u884c\u52d5\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba “removed a dose of accommodation”\uff08\u79fb\u9664\u4e00\u5291\u5bec\u9b06\uff09\u3002\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u63aa\u8fad\u5f37\u70c8\u6697\u793a\u672c\u8f2a\u52a0\u606f\u4e26\u975e “\u4e00\u9318\u5b50\u8cb7\u8ce3”\u2014\u2014 \u6b63\u5982\u55ae\u5291\u85e5\u7269\u53ea\u80fd\u66ab\u6642\u7de9\u89e3\u982d\u75db\u3001\u9000\u71d2\u9700\u591a\u5291\u7642\u7a0b\uff0cWarsh \u5c07\u901a\u8139\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba “\u904e\u9ad8\u3001\u6301\u7e8c\u904e\u4e45”\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u9700\u8981\u7e7c\u7e8c\u79fb\u9664\u5bec\u9b06\u4ee5\u5be6\u73fe\u50f9\u683c\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6574\u9ad4\u7a69\u5065\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u672c\u6b21\u53ca\u5f8c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f “\u5c07\u652f\u6301\u901a\u8139\u66f4\u53ca\u6642\u5730\u56de\u6b78\u59d4\u54e1\u6703 2% \u76ee\u6a19”\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u558a\u8a71\u964d\u606f\u81f3 1%\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0 9 \u500b\u5b57\u9593\u63a5\u56de\u64ca<\/h2>\n

2025 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u958b\u555f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6301\u7e8c\u516c\u958b\u6279\u8a55\u6642\u4efb\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u53ca FOMC \u964d\u606f\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5920\u3002\u5118\u7ba1 2024 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u81f3 2025 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u9593 FOMC \u5df2\u7d2f\u8a08\u964d\u606f 6 \u6b21\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ecd\u4e3b\u5f35\u5229\u7387\u61c9\u7dad\u6301\u5728 1% \u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u5f88\u76f4\u767d\uff1a\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u65e2\u80fd\u523a\u6fc0\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u6838\u5fc3\u50ac\u5316\u5291 \u2014\u2014AI \u57fa\u5efa\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u62db\u8058\u8207\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u58d3\u4f4e\u5df2\u5728 8 \u6708\u7a81\u7834 40 \u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4 \u2014\u2014 \u82e5\u570b\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u90a3\u9ebc\u523a\u773c\u3002<\/p>\n

9 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5f8c\uff0cABC \u65b0\u805e\u8a18\u8005 Elizabeth Schulsh \u5728\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u4e0a\u76f4\u63a5\u63d0\u554f Warsh\uff1a\u5c0d\u53cd\u5fa9\u547c\u7c72\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u6709\u4f55\u8a71\u8981\u8aaa\uff1fWarsh \u7684\u56de\u61c9\u4e0d\u7559\u9918\u5730\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53ef\u88dc\u5145\u7684\u2026\u2026 \u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u662f\u5c65\u884c\u570b\u6703\u8ce6\u4e88\u6211\u5011\u7a69\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8077\u8cac\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002”<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d “The decision we made today was the right decision”\uff08\u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff09\u9019\u4e5d\u500b\u5b57\uff0c\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u89e3\u8b80\u70ba\u5c0d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6301\u7e8c\u5229\u7387\u6279\u8a55\u7684\u9593\u63a5\u56de\u64ca\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5247\u5728 9 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5f8c\u4ee5\u5fae\u5999\u65b9\u5f0f\u65bd\u58d3 Warsh\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u5176\u5728\u6b64\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u4e0a “\u8207\u8463\u4e8b\u6703\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u8d77”\uff0c\u7a31\u6b64\u4e8b “\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff”\uff0c\u4e26\u8868\u793a\u4ecd\u5c0d Warsh \u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u77db\u982d\u6307\u5411\u4e86\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u54e1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\u653e\u9df9\uff1a\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u5927\u6982\u7387\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8 12 \u6708<\/h2>\n

9 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\u65bc\u672c\u9031\u4e09\u516c\u4f48\uff0c\u78ba\u8a8d\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff1a\u201c\u591a\u6578\u8207\u6703\u8005\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u518d\u4e0a\u8abf\u4e00\u6b21\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u9069\u7684\u3002”\u4e0d\u904e\u5b98\u54e1\u5011\u4e5f\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u9918\u5730\uff0c\u7a31\u5c07\u4ee5\u958b\u653e\u5fc3\u614b\u5c0d\u5f85\u6bcf\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6c7a\u7b56\u5c07\u57fa\u65bc\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d00\u8981\u516c\u4f48\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u5df2\u767c\u751f\u660e\u986f\u4f4d\u79fb\u30029 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\u525b\u843d\u5730\u6642\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u66fe\u62bc\u6ce8 10 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u6703\u8b70\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u70ba 51%\u3002\u4f46 8 \u6708 PCE \u6307\u6578\uff08\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u9996\u9078\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u30019 \u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u5e7e\u4e4e\u96f6\u589e\u9577\u5f8c\uff0cCME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\u986f\u793a 10 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u5df2\u9a5f\u964d\u81f3 18%\uff1b\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8f49\u800c\u62bc\u6ce8 12 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u9810\u8a08 12 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5f8c\u5229\u7387\u9054\u5230 4.00%\u20134.25% \u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7d04\u70ba 80%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u524d\u77bb\u4f86\u770b\uff0c10 \u6708 CPI \u5831\u544a\u5c07\u662f 10 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u4efd\u95dc\u9375\u6578\u64da\uff1b\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u4ecd\u662f\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u624b\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7576\u524d\u9810\u8a08\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c07\u52a0\u606f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u81f3 2027 \u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u5f31\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u75b2\u8edf\uff08\u6c83\u723e\u746a\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u540c\u5e97\u92b7\u552e\u5275\u516d\u5e74\u6700\u5dee\uff09\u6216\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5b8c\u5168\u91cd\u958b\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6cb9\u50f9\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u8def\u5f91\u812b\u96e2\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u9810\u8a2d\u8ecc\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2026 \u5e74\u5c0d\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u8f09\u5165\u53f2\u518a\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578\u3001\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u8207\u7d0d\u65af\u9054\u514b\u7d9c\u5408\u6307\u6578\u8f2a\u756a\u5237\u65b0\u6b77\u53f2 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":548692,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[431],"tags":[2165,568,2162,574],"class_list":["post-667936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trends-strategies-zh-hant","tag--zh-hant","tag-zh-hant-blog-tag-","tag-2162","tag-574","sectors-financial-products-zh-hant","locations-us-zh-hant"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=667936"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":667939,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667936\/revisions\/667939"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=667936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=667936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=667936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}