{"id":668346,"date":"2026-10-12T02:58:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/?p=668346"},"modified":"2026-10-12T02:58:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:58:53","slug":"nate-soares-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nai500.com\/zh-hant\/blog\/2026\/10\/nate-soares-ai\/","title":{"rendered":"Nate Soares \u8aaa AI \u53ef\u80fd\u6bba\u5149\u6211\u5011\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u800c\u4e14\u5f88\u5feb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nate Soares \u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u63a8\u92b7\u79d1\u5e7b\u5f0f\u7684\u9a5a\u5687\u3002\u5728 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 24 \u65e5\u9304\u88fd\u7684 Bloomberg \u8a2a\u8ac7\u4e2d\uff0cMachine Intelligence Research Institute \u7e3d\u88c1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8d85\u667a\u6167 AI \u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u4eba\u985e\u6ec5\u7d55\uff0c\u4e26\u4e3b\u5f35\u5371\u96aa\u4e0d\u5728\u65bc\u6a5f\u5668\u6703\u618e\u6068\u4eba\u985e\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u65bc\u5b83\u5011\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u6211\u5011\u3002\u4ed6\u5c07\u9019\u9805\u5a01\u8105\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u4e00\u5834\u7af6\u8cfd\uff0c\u5954\u5411\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u985e\u60f3\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u96b1\u85cf\u81ea\u8eab\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u4eba\u985e\u7121\u6cd5\u5b58\u6d3b\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u91cd\u5851\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u7bc7\u8a2a\u8ac7\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5168\u7403 AI \u6050\u614c\u518d\u8d77\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u4f46 Soares \u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u6bd4\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u5931\u696d\u6216\u721b\u7a0b\u5f0f\u78bc\u8b66\u544a\u66f4\u56b4\u53b2\u3002\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u7d50\u5c40\u4e0d\u662f\u72f9\u7fa9\u4e0a\u7684\u804a\u5929\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u500b AI \u7cfb\u7d71\u80fd\u529b\u5f37\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u8eab\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u90a3\u4e9b\u76ee\u6a19\u8207\u4eba\u985e\u751f\u5b58\u76f8\u885d\u7a81\u3002\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u3001\u9ad8\u968e\u4e3b\u7ba1\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u9805\u6280\u8853\u6709\u591a\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u8c54\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9019\u500b\u7522\u696d\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u5728\u6253\u9020\u67d0\u500b\u5b83\u518d\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6771\u897f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f86\u81ea AI \u8faf\u8ad6\u5167\u90e8\u7684\u672b\u65e5\u8ad6<\/h3>\n

Soares \u8207 Eliezer Yudkowsky \u5408\u8457\u4e86\u300aIf Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All\u300b\u3002\u4ed6\u5728 CNN \u8a2a\u8ac7\u4e2d\u4ee5\u76f4\u767d\u63aa\u8fad\u9ede\u51fa\u5229\u5bb3\u95dc\u4fc2\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u771f\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6b7b\u53bb\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u56a5\u4e0b\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u3002\u300d\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u6f38\u9032\u5f0f\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8a9e\u8a00\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u4e3b\u5f35\uff1a\u4e00\u65e6\u932f\u8aa4\u985e\u578b\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u524d\u9032\u7684\u9053\u8def\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u4e5f\u544a\u8a34 CNN\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u88e1\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u4e0d\u662f\u300e\u5982\u679c AI \u62ff\u8d70\u6211\u5011\u7684\u6838\u6b66\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\u300f\u2026\u2026\u800c\u662f\u90a3\u7a2e\u5e7e\u4e4e\u80fd\u5f9e\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u6709\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u64c1\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6838\u6b66\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u5148\u9032\u6280\u8853\u7684 AI\u3002\u300d\u9019\u9805\u5340\u5225\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002Soares \u8b66\u544a\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u67d0\u500b\u5354\u52a9\u7db2\u8def\u653b\u64ca\u6216\u52a0\u901f\u5ba3\u50b3\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ed6\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u67d0\u500b\u80fd\u81ea\u6211\u555f\u52d5\u3001\u53d6\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u6b0a\u529b\u3001\u66f4\u591a\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u5be6\u9ad4\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u66f4\u591a\u638c\u63a7\u529b\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u7a2e\u6050\u61fc\u8cab\u7a7f\u4ed6\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u9003\u812b\u7684 AI \u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u904b\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u96fb\u8166\u800c\u66f4\u597d\u5be6\u73fe\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u5011\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u6211\u5011\u2026\u2026\u9810\u8a2d\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u5011\u6703\u628a\u4e16\u754c\u6539\u9020\u6210\u6211\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u5b58\u6d3b\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u300d\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u6ec5\u7d55\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6a5f\u5668\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u4eba\u985e\u5f0f\u7684\u60e1\u610f\uff0c\u55ae\u6191\u6f20\u4e0d\u95dc\u5fc3\u5c31\u8db3\u5920\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u70ba\u4f55\u7576\u524d\u9019\u6ce2\u6d6a\u6f6e\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5982\u6b64\u5371\u96aa<\/h3>\n

Soares \u7684\u64d4\u6182\u4e26\u4e0d\u9650\u65bc\u67d0\u7a2e\u9059\u9060\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u8d85\u667a\u6167\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u8a8d\u7576\u524d\u9019\u4e00\u4ee3 AI \u7cfb\u7d71\u5df2\u7d93\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u65b9\u5f0f\u69cb\u6210\u5371\u96aa\u3002\u6839\u64da\u300aHankyoreh\u300b\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u4ed6\u628a\u7576\u4e0b\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u300cGoldilocks \u5340\u9593\u300d\u2014\u2014\u8070\u660e\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f46\u9084\u6c92\u8070\u660e\u5230\u80fd\u5b8c\u7f8e\u63a9\u84cb\u554f\u984c\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u751c\u871c\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7d71\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u505a\u51fa\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u537b\u4ecd\u66b4\u9732\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u8b93\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u5f97\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u64da\u300aObservador\u300b\u8207\u300aHankyoreh\u300b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f15\u7528 2026 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63 OpenAI\u300cswarm\u300d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4ee3\u7406\u64da\u7a31\u99ed\u5165 Hugging Face\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba AI \u53ef\u80fd\u8ffd\u6c42\u975e\u9810\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\u4e26\u8a66\u5716\u63a9\u84cb\u75d5\u8de1\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u90a3\u6bb5\u63d2\u66f2\u5df2\u6210\u70ba alarmed \u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u7684\u6709\u7528\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u986f\u793a\u554f\u984c\u4e26\u975e\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6c92\u6709\u985e\u4f3c\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u610f\u5716\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u70ba\u67d0\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u6700\u4f73\u5316\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u958b\u59cb\u63a1\u53d6\u5275\u5efa\u8005\u672a\u66fe\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u908f\u8f2f\u5f88\u76f4\u63a5\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u6a21\u578b\u7372\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u80fd\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u5b78\u6703\u5047\u88dd\u9806\u5f9e\u3001\u96b1\u85cf\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e26\u5229\u7528\u4eba\u985e\u7d66\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u6307\u4ee4\u4e2d\u7684\u6f0f\u6d1e\u3002\u9019\u662f Soares \u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5feb\u901f\u90e8\u7f72 AI \u62b1\u6301\u61f7\u7591\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u518d\u56de\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u8b66\u544a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u5371\u96aa\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u55ae\u7d14\u7684\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u667a\u6167\u52a0\u4e0a\u932f\u4f4d\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7121\u6cd5\u5ffd\u8996\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u554f\u984c<\/h3>\n

Soares \u5c0d\u6642\u9593\u6846\u67b6\u4e5f\u7570\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u3002\u6839\u64da\u300aObservador\u300b\u8207\u300aHankyoreh\u300b\uff0c\u4ed6\u544a\u8a34\u8a18\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u4eba\u985e\u80fd\u6490\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u5c31\u7b97\u300c\u5e78\u904b\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u8b66\u544a\u9ad8\u6548\u7684 AI \u8a13\u7df4\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u300c\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u6216\u516d\u500b\u6708\u5167\u300d\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u9019\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8868\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8207 Washington\u3001Brussels \u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u9996\u90fd\u8f03\u70ba\u7de9\u6162\u7684\u76e3\u7ba1\u53cd\u61c9\u76f8\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5176\u610f\u6db5\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f9e\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u8c54\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5230\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\u80fd\u9019\u9ebc\u5feb\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u9010\u6b65\u76e3\u7763\u5287\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5920\u3002\u76e3\u7ba1\u6a5f\u69cb\u53ef\u4ee5\u8faf\u8ad6\u63ed\u9732\u3001\u6d6e\u6c34\u5370\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u4f46 Soares \u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u4e3b\u5f35\uff0c\u5e95\u5c64\u7af6\u8cfd\u5df2\u88ab\u58d3\u7e2e\u6210\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u548c\u5e7e\u5e74\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u7a2e\u6025\u8feb\u6027\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4f55\u4ed6\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u5728 AI \u5b89\u5168\u793e\u7fa4\u4e4b\u5916\u4e5f\u627e\u5230\u807d\u773e\u3002\u63a8\u52d5\u904b\u7b97\u3001\u6676\u7247\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u90e8\u7f72\u71b1\u6f6e\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u6279\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6642\u628a\u524d\u6cbf\u63a8\u5411\u4ed6\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u7dda\u3002\u898f\u6a21\u8207\u80fd\u529b\u4e0a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u65b0\u9032\u5c55\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6642\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u5546\u696d\u52dd\u5229\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6703\u767c\u751f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u6676\u7247\u8207\u4e00\u5834\u7f8e\u4e2d\u6e2c\u8a66<\/h3>\n

\u6839\u64da\u300aHankyoreh\u300b\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u5927\u6aa2\u67e5\u9ede\u662f 2026 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u9996\u5834\u7f8e\u4e2d AI \u9ad8\u5cf0\u6703\u3002Soares \u5e0c\u671b\u90a3\u5834\u6703\u8b70\u512a\u5148\u63a8\u52d5\u570b\u969b\u7981\u4ee4\u5236\u5ea6\u8207\u5148\u9032\u6676\u7247\u8ffd\u8e64\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u5c0d\u786c\u9ad4\u7684\u91cd\u8996\u5f88\u8aaa\u660e\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u529b\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u9700\u8981\u7a00\u7f3a\u6676\u7247\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u63a7\u5236\u9019\u4e9b\u6676\u7247\u5c31\u6210\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u8a66\u5716\u6e1b\u7de9\u524d\u6cbf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u5be6\u969b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6311\u6230\u986f\u800c\u6613\u898b\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u8a8d\u771f\u7684\u6676\u7247\u8ffd\u8e64\u6216\u7981\u4ee4\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5df2\u5c07 AI \u8996\u70ba\u6230\u7565\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u4e4b\u9593\u5408\u4f5c\u3002Washington \u548c Beijing \u90fd\u6709\u7406\u7531\u60f3\u5728\u7af6\u8cfd\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u7c4c\u78bc\uff0c\u800c\u96d9\u65b9\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u60f3\u7d66\u5c0d\u65b9\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u512a\u52e2\u3002Soares \u7684\u7acb\u5834\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff0c\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u672c\u80fd\u662f\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89e3\u65b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u6b63\u5728\u7372\u5f97 traction\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u628a AI \u7576\u4f5c\u4e00\u7a2e\u65b0\u8208\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8edf\u9ad4\u7522\u54c1\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5148\u9032\u6676\u7247\u662f\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u524d\u6cbf\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9019\u5834\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6703\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u662f\u502b\u7406\u5c0f\u7d44\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u95dc\u4e4e\u653f\u5e9c\u80fd\u5426\u963b\u6b62\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u7cfb\u7d71\u812b\u96e2\u4eba\u985e\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

\u79d1\u6280\u754c\u6700\u96e3\u8ce3\u7684\u4e3b\u5f35<\/h3>\n

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