Analysts Said Further Escalation in the Middle East Could Push Gold Prices Back to $2100

黄金价格即将收于6周以来最高
Published on: Jan 15, 2024
Author: Caroline Kong

On Monday, Gold is seeing a relatively quiet start to the week as U.S. Markets are closed in recognition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. In the international spot market, gold last traded at $2,053.70 an ounce, up 0.24% on the day. At the same time, spot silver last traded at $23.20 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.

According to some analysts,the precious metal needs to see a new catalyst, or at least further insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory, in order to break out of its current trading range. In addition, Wednesday’s retail sales data could also bring some volatility to gold prices this week.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, believes that while the price of gold continues to hold firm, more needs to be done to attract new investors into the market. The bulls really need to see the gold price break out and hold steady above $2,100 to significantly increase the likelihood of a more substantial rally.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said on Monday that “weak U.S. retail sales could give the gold bulls fresh impetus with a price target of $2,075.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that if gold breaks above $2,060, market momentum could push the price further up to $2,088 an ounce. Investors have been hesitant to enter the gold market as the Federal Reserve maintains its restrictive monetary policy. The gold market needs to see an actual rate cut before investors stop watching and return to the market on a large scale.

Deutsche Bank commodities analyst Barbara Lambrecht said the CPI data suggests that the U.S. de-inflation process is slow, superimposed on the strong non-farm payrolls data from last December, the Fed’s interest rate cuts are not imminent, and a longer waiting period could lead to market disappointment and lead to a decline in the price of gold in the short term. This is supported by continued outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In addition, the risk of geopolitical conflict is also seen as continuing to play a role in supporting gold prices. Yemen’s capital Sana’a and other places were hit by US and British airstrikes in the early hours of the 12th local time. U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed that U.S. and British forces struck Houthi forces in Yemen.

Analysts pointed out that this to a certain extent drove the market risk aversion back up. And any further escalation of the situation in the Middle East is likely to drive safe-haven demand for gold and push prices up to $2,100 per ounce.

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