Uptrend Intact, Gold Remains Buy on Dips

Gold Remains Buy on Dips
Published on: May 7, 2024

This year, the upward trend in gold prices remains intact, currently undergoing a phase of technical correction, where price dips are seen as opportunities for a rebound. Last week, key events affecting gold price movements were the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and April’s nonfarm payroll data. Analysts this week are closely monitoring the movement of the US dollar and technical indicators.

On Monday, due to tensions in the Middle East, spot gold rose $21.98, or 0.96%, closing at $2323.24 per ounce. Looking at the daily chart for gold, the price is trading below the key Fibonacci level of $2,326.50 per ounce, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rebound from April to May.

Market analyst Christopher Lewis from FX Empire stated that there is still upward pressure in the gold market, and the uptrend remains intact based on the daily chart analysis. If the price breaks through the short-term resistance at $2,360, it could quickly rise to $2,400. Meanwhile, strong support is provided by $2,280 and the 50-day moving average below. Therefore, Lewis concludes that from a technical analysis perspective, gold can still be bought on dips.

From a currency perspective, major fiat currencies, including the US dollar, have weakened across the board. The strength of the US dollar is perceived as relative to other currencies and not as a standalone indicator. Geopolitical risks remain high, inflation trends persist, and some countries view gold as a means of currency competition alongside increasing their gold reserves. Overall, due to demand from safe heaven and de-dollarization, gold prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend this year.

Justin Low, a currency analyst at ForexLive, focuses on short-term support and resistance levels for gold. Last Friday, as the US dollar declined, spot gold prices made a move towards $2,320 but stopped short at the 200-hour moving average before dipping to $2,280. In the past week, gold prices fluctuated around $2,300. On Monday, spot gold prices first fell below $2,300 and then recovered this level, yet still face resistance from the 200-hour moving average at $2,317.

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