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According to a study by the risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, by the middle of this century, around 25% of global copper projects are expected to face “high” or “very high” risks of extreme precipitation. Major copper-producing countries including Canada, Australia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are facing risks of extreme rainfall. Extreme precipitation is projected to affect the production of copper essential for the global transition to clean energy.
Verisk Maplecroft’s Extreme Rainfall Index measures the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall over seven different time periods and three emission scenarios. This index indicates that 19% of copper mines are already at significant risk from extreme weather events. With global temperatures rising, leading to more severe rainfall and droughts, this number is expected to increase further.
Jimena Blanco, Chief Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, stated, “Risks such as worker health and safety, damaged access routes, and electrical and structural damage at site facilities could all impact production.”
By the middle of this century, the number of copper mines in Canada facing high or very high risks of extreme precipitation is expected to more than double, increasing from the current 16 projects to 42 projects (under a moderate emission scenario).
Australia, the country with the second highest potential copper reserves, is projected to see a slight increase in these reserves by 2050, rising from the current 27 to 28. This means that 17% of the country’s copper mining projects may face risks. Countries with fewer potential copper reserves, such as Mexico and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are also expected to face higher risks.
A study similar to the one conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in April found that even with rapidly decreasing current carbon emissions, by 2050, global production of over 70% of cobalt and lithium, as well as approximately 60% of bauxite and iron, will face risks due to climate-related factors.
PwC’s report focuses on the impact of extreme high temperatures and weather pattern changes on prolonging periods of drought. The research reveals that even in an optimistic low-emission scenario for 2050, over 50% of global copper mines will be located in regions facing severe, high, or extreme drought risks. The study concludes that for the other two metals crucial to energy transition—lithium and cobalt—the exposure to drought is even higher, reaching 74%.
