Gold Just Recorded Biggest Weekly Loss in 3 Years, Should You Buy the Dip?

Gold Prices Face Uncertainty as U.S. Inflation Rate Approaches 2%
Published on: Nov 15, 2024
Author: Caroline Kong

The price of gold continued to fall this week, with spot gold trading at $2,561.65 per ounce by the close of trading on Friday (15 November local time), down 0.12% on the day and with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.55%. Since the beginning of November, the precious metal has lost 8% of its value.

Behind the decline in gold prices is the fading of geopolitical risks and the expected shift in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the easing of the situation in the Middle East have reduced market demand for safe-haven assets. Besides that, the market’s expectations of the Fed’s interest rate cuts have also cooled sharply, the strong dollar and high interest rates are both headwinds for gold.

A U.S. government data on Friday showed that as of November 12, hedge funds and other large speculators’ net long position in gold was 197,362, the lowest level in the past 14 weeks.

And according to Kitco News’ weekly gold survey, of the 12 analysts who participated in the survey, three analysts (25 per cent) expect the price of gold to rise in the coming week, six analysts (50 per cent) predict another decline in the price of the precious metal, and the remaining three analysts (25 per cent) expect the price of gold to continue to consolidate and possibly move slightly lower.

Meanwhile, in Kitco’s online poll, of the 181 retail investors who participated in the poll, 78 investors (or 43 per cent) expect the price of gold to rise next week, while 71 investors (or 39 per cent) expect the price of gold to fall. The remaining 32 investors (18 per cent) expect gold to trade sideways.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director of Bannockburn Global Forex, noted that the gold price has fallen for the third consecutive week, with the nearly 4.5 per cent drop the biggest in three and a half years. The consolidation may continue into next week, and the precious metal may have the potential to return to the $2,600 to $2,625 range

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, believes gold has given back enough of its gains to stabilise in a range slightly above current levels as we look ahead to 2025 …With Trump in office, U.S. growth looks better than anywhere else next year. However, there is still a crisis over issues such as tariffs and government debt, so gold remains an important part of portfolios in the medium to long term.

Since Trump’s victory, investor sentiment has quickly shifted from safe-haven assets to risky assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. However, market participants have pointed out that the combination of lower taxes, tariffs and high government spending could fuel inflation over time . while gold has long been seen as a hedge against inflation. If inflation rises as a result of these policies, gold could re-attract investors who want to maintain their purchasing power.

The World Gold Council (WGC) expects the U.S. deficit to increase if the new administration increases spending, which could affect the creditworthiness of Treasuries, which will ultimately increase the attractiveness of gold as a safer investment alternative, particularly for central banks that hold gold as part of their reserve assets. Hence, the recent significant pullback in the gold price could open a window of opportunity for central banks to resume gold purchases.

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