Cassiar Gold Corp. (TSXV: GLDC, OTCQX: CGLCF)
Revitalizing the Cassiar Gold District in British Columbia, Canada
Despite spot gold prices successfully holding above the critical $3,000 per ounce support level, the market experienced large-scale profit-taking last Friday, leading to nearly a 1% decline in gold prices. Round numbers like $3,000 carry significant psychological weight for the market. Wall Street analysts suggest that even if a pullback occurs, as long as gold sustains this level eventually, it could reinforce its long-term upward trend.
Technical analysis highlights a modest correction in the gold market. Using the Fibonacci retracement method for the recent rally from $2,846 to $3,036, analysts identified key support levels:
These levels form a three-tier “defense system” in gold’s weakening phase. Analysts note that if gold’s current weakness continues, these levels could become focal points for a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, remarked that if gold prices fluctuate around the $3,000 level for the next few months, it will boost market confidence in breaking through to new highs. He predicts that while gold is unlikely to reach new peaks in the short term, there are also no major bearish factors that could significantly drag prices lower.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that even a $100 decline in gold prices would not disrupt the current bull market. For asset managers concerned about stagflation risks, such a pullback could provide an opportunity to add gold holdings. Hansen particularly emphasized the importance of the $2,955 level, which served as the rally’s previous high and is now a critical support.
David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, noted from a technical perspective that while the daily MACD remains elevated, it has not yet entered the overbought zone. If gold prices retrace to a more reasonable level, it could build momentum for a new rally. However, the $3,000 support level’s sustainability is still under scrutiny.
The market is closely monitoring inflation data and its “double-edged sword” effect. Thuy Lan Nguyen, Head of Research at Commerzbank, indicated in a recent report that the Federal Reserve’s upward revision of its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% is dampening gold’s momentum. If inflation spirals out of control as seen during 2021-2022, gold could face short-term pressure. Nonetheless, any potential pullback would likely be seen as a buying opportunity, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Despite the market’s consensus that gold appears fatigued and may face consolidation in the short term, demand for gold investments—particularly gold ETFs—is showing signs of revival.
The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), saw its holdings increase by 37 tons this year to 910 tons. However, this remains significantly below the 1,278 tons seen in 2020 and the historical peak of 1,353 tons in 2012. Analysts highlight that unlike previous cycles, where ETF demand peaked alongside prices, the current gold rally (with a 62% gain over the past 12 months) does not show synchronized ETF demand. Instead, ETF inflows could fuel further price gains in the coming months.
Gold’s ability to maintain the $3,000 level is a focal point for investors. While technical factors suggest a correction is due, analysts see this as a healthy consolidation phase that could benefit gold’s long-term trajectory. Inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and a potential revival in gold ETF demand are expected to play pivotal roles in shaping prices moving forward. Even if gold temporarily dips below $3,000, the overall bull market remains intact.
