Due to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government’s decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months, international cobalt prices surged dramatically earlier this week, triggering tension throughout the global battery metals supply chain. The export ban caused a supply interruption, and the cobalt deliveries from the Metalkol project—run by mining giant Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) in the country—were impacted by force majeure, further stoking market panic.
ERG is the third-largest cobalt producer in the DRC, and last year its Metalkol project produced 19,200 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide, accounting for about 9% of the country’s total output and 7% of global supply.
At the news, cobalt prices skyrocketed. On the China Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange, cobalt prices surged nearly 12% in a single day to 240 yuan per kilogram, reaching a new high since October, after which the exchange suspended trading.
European markets followed suit, with industry agency Fastmarkets reporting that prices for standard-grade cobalt (delivery at the Rotterdam warehouse) climbed from USD 9.95 per pound on February 24 to USD 12.25 per pound on March 7, representing a 23% increase. This surge has reversed a previous trend in which cobalt prices had fallen to a nine-year low (around USD 10 per pound).
In February, the DRC government announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports aimed at curbing the long-term low prices caused by oversupply. This move is viewed as the country’s first administrative intervention to balance the cobalt market. The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer, supplying over 70% of global output.
The DRC government stated that the export ban would be reassessed after three months and might be adjusted or terminated ahead of schedule depending on market conditions. Sources indicate that during the embargo period, authorities plan to negotiate and establish a quota system for cobalt exports to balance supply and demand. In addition, the government is concurrently advancing several complementary reforms, including boosting domestic cobalt refining capabilities to enhance the country’s bargaining power within the global battery metals value chain.
Earlier in February, the DRC sent a sealed letter to the United States proposing a deal that sent shockwaves through global mineral markets: in exchange for exclusive mining rights to key minerals—including cobalt, lithium, tantalum, and uranium, valued at over USD 24 trillion—the country sought US military protection and infrastructure investment. The DRC’s pivot is not an isolated event but a crucial part of the United States’ strategy of countering China in critical minerals. Currently, Chinese companies such as China Molybdenum (CMOC) and Huayou Cobalt control 70% of the DRC’s cobalt output.
Industry experts expect that if the export ban continues, the global electric vehicle battery industry chain will face increased cost pressures, prompting automakers and battery manufacturers to accelerate efforts to seek substitute materials or diversify their supply chains.
